Update: PAC 12

PAC-12

Summary: Considering how the first couple months of the season unfolded, I would not be against giving Tres Tinkle the Peyton Manning treatment and nominating him for Conference Player of the Year.  I do not think any team has underachieved to a greater degree this year.  In a sloppy PAC-12, they should have finished at least 8^th.  I am glad that I stuck by my guns on Oregon.  They righted the ship quickly once Dillon Brooks returned.  Dana Altman has done a great job of rotating his role players and getting the most out of every player minute.  UCLA’s sweep at altitude shows how efficient their machine is (or possibly how large the delta is between the Top 3 and next 3.  I wrote off Arizona early, but those losses look pretty good right now.  Their Euro connection is simply not defendable by any standard scheme.  I will be interesting how they handle Oregon’s press.  USC played a porous non-conference schedule, but beat all-comers, so .500 in league play gets them in.  The question is whether Colorado and/or Utah can distinguish themselves from the pack.  The Buffalos hit the wall hard to start league but they also played 4 of the Top 5 teams.  Not an excuse, but just a barometer of what to expect when the Washingtons, OSU come up on the schedule.  A home upset of Oregon would be huge. 

What I got wrong: California has ridden a suffocating defense to decent computer numbers.  They just do not have the talent level to back up the results.  But in a top-heavy conference in which they only have to play UCLA and USC once, 10-8 may earn them a bid.

Prognosis: I think (and many people agree) this is it for Lorenzo Romar.  6 straight years with NBA caliber talent and they have nothing to show for it.  The Huskies need to find another direction as Fultz bolts.  I’d like to keep my preseason Top 3 intact, but that is shear stubbornness.  UCLA has distinguished itself as a 1 seed (vulnerable, yes) and Arizona/Oregon gotta dig it out for second fiddle.  It is very possible that there is only one other bid to be had here, and the pecking order is USC, Utah, Cal, and Colorado.  Lots can happen in February.  I am extremely happy that UW, Stanford, ASU, and WSU played exactly to form, and likely will continue to do so.

P12	Preseason	Realtime
1	Oregon	UCLA
2	Arizona	Oregon
3	UCLA	Arizona
4	Utah	USC
5	USC	Utah
6	Colorado	California
7	Oregon State	Colorado
8	Washington	Washington
9	California	Stanford
10	Stanford	Arizona State
11	Arizona State	Washington State
12	Washington State	Oregon State

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