On Monday, West Virginia forced Manhattan into 40 turnovers... yes, once per minute, a confused Jasper was making a poor decision to lead to points the other way. Numerous folks were quick to laud Bob Huggins and his players for the accomplishment and what this performance could mean for them going forward.
Well, probably nothing. 23 minutes was the most minutes any player logged, which means that no singular player is responsible for the disruption Monday night.
The argument against this assertion is that they also forced 34 against New Hampshire, 26 against Mississippi Valley State, and 21 against Mount Saint Mary's. While I like New Hampshire in a weak America East this year, that is a slate of crap to pray on at home. They did a good job splitting their games over the break (blowing out Illinois isn't THAT impressive this year, and losing to Temple, eh?), but the real test will be this weekend in Charlottesville. Without the benefit of home court whistles getting swallowed, my guess is that their insane 35% turnover per possession rate begins to regress toward the mean. Right now, the Mountaineers shooting defense is just average and has relied on pure pressure and benefit of the doubt from officials. A stronger team like UVA will not put themselves in those situations, and if they do, their is a good chance the whistle will bail them out.
I still like West Virginia for a high seed and are legitimately the second best team in the Big 12, but they have a lot of room for improvement. The turnover rate is more indicative of the quality of opponent.
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label defense. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Jermaine Dye-ed Last Season
But was it his fault?
For those of you engrossed with split stats, you may have notice that Jermaine Dye was replaced by a hitting mannequin on August 1st. My fantasy team sure did, plummeting from second to 5th and getting blasted in the playoffs.
Dye had enjoyed a career renaissance arriving in Chicago, despite having suffered one of the more gruesome baseball injuries ever. He teamed with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko to for one of the most 3-5 punches in baseball. However, the White Sox felt obliged to move on with Thome closing in on 40, so they moved him to L.A. for little in return. Usually a "surrender" trade will mentally affect veterans, but the lack of protection and runners on base ahead of Dye looks to have had an effect as well.
While Dye is an ideal offensive fit for the Nationals, adding additional protection to Dunn and Zimmerman, the defensive ramifications would be disastrous. Dunn and Dye would likely never be able to play simultaneous, and Willingham and Dye together would be putting to much pressure on Morgan in center. So while Dye may still be able to contribute to a team, it will likely have to be in the American League.
For those of you engrossed with split stats, you may have notice that Jermaine Dye was replaced by a hitting mannequin on August 1st. My fantasy team sure did, plummeting from second to 5th and getting blasted in the playoffs.
Dye had enjoyed a career renaissance arriving in Chicago, despite having suffered one of the more gruesome baseball injuries ever. He teamed with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko to for one of the most 3-5 punches in baseball. However, the White Sox felt obliged to move on with Thome closing in on 40, so they moved him to L.A. for little in return. Usually a "surrender" trade will mentally affect veterans, but the lack of protection and runners on base ahead of Dye looks to have had an effect as well.
While Dye is an ideal offensive fit for the Nationals, adding additional protection to Dunn and Zimmerman, the defensive ramifications would be disastrous. Dunn and Dye would likely never be able to play simultaneous, and Willingham and Dye together would be putting to much pressure on Morgan in center. So while Dye may still be able to contribute to a team, it will likely have to be in the American League.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Rockies Series Preview
Myth 1: Coors Field is a pitcher's nightmare. What is this, 1995? While the altitude and dry air in Denver will never allow visiting pitchers to feel comfortable with their breaking pitches, there is one force that is constant everywhere: gravity. Check out the Rockies top 3 starters and note that all three have a fastball value over 5. While Ubaldo Jimenez has the velocity to over-power hitters, both Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook pound the bottom half of the strike zone with average fastballs. The key isn't to strike batters out, but to get batters out. Aaorn Cook, for instance, sports fairly similar K/9 ratios home and away. Even a Hall of Famer like Greg Maddux struggled to find consistency at Coors, posting drastically lower K rates there as opposed to elsewhere. Pitchers can succeed at Coors with the sinker. Combine that with an optimistic offense and lowered expectations and many pitchers can thrive. Rookies Zimmermann, Stammen, and Detwiler don't fit the profile at this team and may get hammered.
Myth 2: The Nationals are the only team with an over-crowded outfield. The Nats have solved some of their issues via trade and demotion, but the Rockies have yet to find a home for all their hitters. Brad Hawpe is anchored in right and has earned it. Trading Matt Holliday opened left field for a fresh young bat, but the Rockies continue to go another direction. The second best hitter on the club, Seth Smith, has been relegated to pinch hitting duties while Ryan Spilborghs gets half the at bats. The Rockies do commit to defense to protect their ridiculous outfield acreage, but Smith has proven to be more than adequate in left. This isn't exactly Nyjer Morgan over Josh Willingham here. The Nats can only hope for more Spilborghs (and Dexter Fowler) to help get their young pitchers through the lineup three times.
Myth 3: Garrett Atkins sucks. Atkins had a Kearnsian May, but started swinging the bat well again in June. His season line is still weak, but still needs to be pitched to with respect.
Myth 4: Home runs are key at Coors. Flat out not true. It is true that if you give up four bombs, it is difficult to win, but it is equally difficult if the other team is dropping base hits all over and batting .400... outfield defense in Coors always takes a back seat the offensive numbers. Coors is an enormous park and watching Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris run down balls that would be certain doubles and triples should tip Manny off as to how he should approach this series. Willingham and Dunn will see some innings off, especially given the taxing conditions of playing at altitude.
Tough draw for the Nats here. Detwiler and Stammen are still AAAA level starters, while Zimmermann is strike out guy who leaves the occasional ball out over the plate. Could be a long three days in Denver. And let's not get started on the bullpen...
Myth 2: The Nationals are the only team with an over-crowded outfield. The Nats have solved some of their issues via trade and demotion, but the Rockies have yet to find a home for all their hitters. Brad Hawpe is anchored in right and has earned it. Trading Matt Holliday opened left field for a fresh young bat, but the Rockies continue to go another direction. The second best hitter on the club, Seth Smith, has been relegated to pinch hitting duties while Ryan Spilborghs gets half the at bats. The Rockies do commit to defense to protect their ridiculous outfield acreage, but Smith has proven to be more than adequate in left. This isn't exactly Nyjer Morgan over Josh Willingham here. The Nats can only hope for more Spilborghs (and Dexter Fowler) to help get their young pitchers through the lineup three times.
Myth 3: Garrett Atkins sucks. Atkins had a Kearnsian May, but started swinging the bat well again in June. His season line is still weak, but still needs to be pitched to with respect.
Myth 4: Home runs are key at Coors. Flat out not true. It is true that if you give up four bombs, it is difficult to win, but it is equally difficult if the other team is dropping base hits all over and batting .400... outfield defense in Coors always takes a back seat the offensive numbers. Coors is an enormous park and watching Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris run down balls that would be certain doubles and triples should tip Manny off as to how he should approach this series. Willingham and Dunn will see some innings off, especially given the taxing conditions of playing at altitude.
Tough draw for the Nats here. Detwiler and Stammen are still AAAA level starters, while Zimmermann is strike out guy who leaves the occasional ball out over the plate. Could be a long three days in Denver. And let's not get started on the bullpen...
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
100th Post- Lots Going On...
I was going to discuss the closed polls results, and how three of the four options had been rendered obsolete. However, Mr. Rizzo has been busy, closing a couple deals.
Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett
The easiest thing to do is to break this into two separate trades, OF for OF, P for P. From the Nationals perspective, given the players involved, it was an offer Rizzo couldn't refuse. The two areas that needed to be addressed were the bullpen and the defense. Nyjer Morgan more than addresses the defense. He can play CF if necessary, which will allow the Nats to keep Dunn, Willingham, and Dukes fresh in the corners. Harris loses out the most in the deal, as he will probably see his playing time cut in half. Burnett is Rizzo's dream... a left-handed, ground-ball, relief pitcher. He has battled back from injury to become a solid major league reliever and will be under control for a couple more seasons. He will benefit from working with two veteran LOOGYs in Villone and Beimel.
So what did the Nats give up? Starting with Hanrahan, since fans have been dealing with his shenanigans all season. Hanrahan was great last year, but pretty well abused. 84 innings of relief on 69 appearances is a number relievers build toward. Hanrahan had been a starter in 2006 and 2007. Basically, Hanrahan could get back to his 2008 form with a couple months off, but does that even make him as valuable to the Nats as Burnett? Villone is 40. Not quite. Lastings Milledge, on the other hand, doesn't need rest. Who knows what he needs... for him to make up for his defensive deficiencies, he needs to hit as well the premier corner outfielder in the league. Nick Markakis is a good young comp. Does anyone believe that is possible for Milledge? Sure, maybe for a couple months, but he is a natural underachiever, a tease. Guys like JD Drew show flashes of their potential, but rarely put it together for 162 games, and that the player the optimists refuse to see in Milledge. However, after watching him play first hand for a few years, the patterns are obvious.
It is difficult to criticize the Nats for making this move. Milledge offered the current major league roster nothing. Hanrahan had been banished to the mop-up role. Burnett will pitch high-leverage innings and Morgan will start in the outfield five days a week. Honestly, what are the Pirates going to do with the players they got? This trade gets a solid B+ for now and really will not look bad unless Milledge turns into Sammy Sosa.
...
Man, does Elijah Dukes ever field a ball cleanly in the outfield? Stammen's third time through the order woes continue, further indicating that he may have more work to do in AAA before formally claiming a rotation spot for next season. Not sure what is wrong with Nick Johnson, but he isn't showcasing his talent very well for contenders right now... Guzman has made up for a rough outing at the plate with a great dive and throw early in the game. Zimmerman, on the other hand... woof, 3 error games aren't helping the pitchers, especially the relievers. Clippard may not have the stuff to be effective for long runs, though his delivery can be deceptive enough to kill AAA guys.
...
To the poll. The Nats have officially addressed the bullpen. Colome and Tavarez are crappy guys, but almost every team has one of them. Teams try to get a few innings out of them before they wear out their welcome. Manny isn't going to be fired in the immediate future, and Rizzo has earned the right to see his handiwork through. The Nationals haven't dealt Nick Johnson, and have made a few moves that may make that unnecessary. Tough to really say what additional moves can be made to improve a team that dominates innings 1-5, but then stagger back to the clubhouse two out of three times. I'll try to think of a new poll, maybe two.
The symmetry for The Bombs is beautiful, 50 posts in May, 50 in June... it will be difficult to keep that pace through July, but the staff at The Bombs will try.
Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett
The easiest thing to do is to break this into two separate trades, OF for OF, P for P. From the Nationals perspective, given the players involved, it was an offer Rizzo couldn't refuse. The two areas that needed to be addressed were the bullpen and the defense. Nyjer Morgan more than addresses the defense. He can play CF if necessary, which will allow the Nats to keep Dunn, Willingham, and Dukes fresh in the corners. Harris loses out the most in the deal, as he will probably see his playing time cut in half. Burnett is Rizzo's dream... a left-handed, ground-ball, relief pitcher. He has battled back from injury to become a solid major league reliever and will be under control for a couple more seasons. He will benefit from working with two veteran LOOGYs in Villone and Beimel.
So what did the Nats give up? Starting with Hanrahan, since fans have been dealing with his shenanigans all season. Hanrahan was great last year, but pretty well abused. 84 innings of relief on 69 appearances is a number relievers build toward. Hanrahan had been a starter in 2006 and 2007. Basically, Hanrahan could get back to his 2008 form with a couple months off, but does that even make him as valuable to the Nats as Burnett? Villone is 40. Not quite. Lastings Milledge, on the other hand, doesn't need rest. Who knows what he needs... for him to make up for his defensive deficiencies, he needs to hit as well the premier corner outfielder in the league. Nick Markakis is a good young comp. Does anyone believe that is possible for Milledge? Sure, maybe for a couple months, but he is a natural underachiever, a tease. Guys like JD Drew show flashes of their potential, but rarely put it together for 162 games, and that the player the optimists refuse to see in Milledge. However, after watching him play first hand for a few years, the patterns are obvious.
It is difficult to criticize the Nats for making this move. Milledge offered the current major league roster nothing. Hanrahan had been banished to the mop-up role. Burnett will pitch high-leverage innings and Morgan will start in the outfield five days a week. Honestly, what are the Pirates going to do with the players they got? This trade gets a solid B+ for now and really will not look bad unless Milledge turns into Sammy Sosa.
...
Man, does Elijah Dukes ever field a ball cleanly in the outfield? Stammen's third time through the order woes continue, further indicating that he may have more work to do in AAA before formally claiming a rotation spot for next season. Not sure what is wrong with Nick Johnson, but he isn't showcasing his talent very well for contenders right now... Guzman has made up for a rough outing at the plate with a great dive and throw early in the game. Zimmerman, on the other hand... woof, 3 error games aren't helping the pitchers, especially the relievers. Clippard may not have the stuff to be effective for long runs, though his delivery can be deceptive enough to kill AAA guys.
...
To the poll. The Nats have officially addressed the bullpen. Colome and Tavarez are crappy guys, but almost every team has one of them. Teams try to get a few innings out of them before they wear out their welcome. Manny isn't going to be fired in the immediate future, and Rizzo has earned the right to see his handiwork through. The Nationals haven't dealt Nick Johnson, and have made a few moves that may make that unnecessary. Tough to really say what additional moves can be made to improve a team that dominates innings 1-5, but then stagger back to the clubhouse two out of three times. I'll try to think of a new poll, maybe two.
The symmetry for The Bombs is beautiful, 50 posts in May, 50 in June... it will be difficult to keep that pace through July, but the staff at The Bombs will try.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Red Sox Series Preview
Tuesday: John Lannan vs. Brad Penny
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
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