Monday: Livan Hernandez at JD Martin
Tuesday: Oliver Perez at John Lannan
Wednesday: Mike Pelfrey at Craig Stammen
I don’t hang around the Mets message boards, nor do I follow Mets blogs. However, the Mets, like the Nationals, have suffered a similar degree of epic fail this season. Injuries have crippled their rotation and their lineup. The eight players stepping on the field these days far from represent a contender; yet the Mets scrap, day in and out, to remain on the fringe of contention. Maybe they get their host of all-stars back and make a run.
I mention this because the Nats are not fielding a worse team than the Mets right now. In fact, given some of the decaying bodies they are sending out there (Livan, Sheff, Tatis, Cora, Dessens, Berroa), the Nats are probably fielding a more talented team. The Mets are staggering in at 15-27 since June 1st, which is sadly much better than the 12-29 posted by the Nats over the same stretch.
However, with each series comes new hope, or at least one would hope. AAA phenom JD Martin will get the ball tonight, and if he is any bit the revelation Craig Stammen has been, there will be more good than bad. For more on JD Martin, FBJ has an excellent analysis. John Lannan has been one of the better stoppers in the league. Stammen has been rolling along like Greg Maddux circa 1990s his last three starts. The three starting pitchers the Nats will face in this series represent three of the worst starters in the NL. Livan Hernandez becomes Daniel Cabrera if you pull out his two starts against the Nats. Pelfrey has 2 quality starts and 2 starts in which he gave up 9 runs since June 1st. And Oliver Perez is literally Daniel Cabrera, except 33 million dollars (plus or minus some change) more expensive.
The Nats are playing themselves out of games with defensive miscues, base running blunders, and general malaise. There is no fire when guys come up in need of a clutch hit late in the game, no sense of urgency. I won’t run out there and pluck quotes out of a vacuum like other columnists and bloggers, but next time somebody comes up runners on late in a close, take a close look at their eyes… nobody up there is striking fear in the pitcher. Even Adam Dunn still gets pitched to regularly, despite the fact that Willingham has been his only real protection the past month.
The Mets are so bad that it is hard to imagine the Nats not taking a game here, but who knows. The lay down job against the Cubs has really enraged some of the remaining diehards here.
“The Bombs” will be sending F. Leesburgh Pike to the game this evening. Autographs will be available in the men’s room behind section 108 during the Presidents’ Race.
Showing posts with label series preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label series preview. Show all posts
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Cubs Series Pre-Preview
The Cubs are in town, so expect the crowds to be heavily... heavy. I have been to three Nats/Cubs games (two at RFK) and each time, the crowd was close to 50/50. Not that will help Rich Harden find the strike zone.
Harden @ Lannan
Harden looks as if his workload last season may have been too much. He was flat out filthy, and probably would have won an overall ML Cy Young. As much as he has struggled this year, he may need to consider a switch to closer. The more games he sees, the better. 16 starts for 100 innings, or 60 appearances for 65 innings... a general manager must make that cost-benefit decision.
The Nats need to refrain from chasing pitches out of the zone tonight. They should have no problem getting baserunners via walk. If Harden is "on", even the most disciplined hitters can look bad.
Riggleman will likely pick a lineup and run with it for a while, so don't be surprised to see the same faces start most of these games, unlike with Manny, who had lineup ADD (I'll admit, with the defense, sometimes he was just trying square pegs for round holes). The Cubs outfield is a similar mess, with Piniella often sacrificing defense by keeping Reed Johnson on the bench in favor of Soriano, Bradley, and Fukodome in the outfield.
I think the Nats get off to a good start and win this one 6-4.
Harden @ Lannan
Harden looks as if his workload last season may have been too much. He was flat out filthy, and probably would have won an overall ML Cy Young. As much as he has struggled this year, he may need to consider a switch to closer. The more games he sees, the better. 16 starts for 100 innings, or 60 appearances for 65 innings... a general manager must make that cost-benefit decision.
The Nats need to refrain from chasing pitches out of the zone tonight. They should have no problem getting baserunners via walk. If Harden is "on", even the most disciplined hitters can look bad.
Riggleman will likely pick a lineup and run with it for a while, so don't be surprised to see the same faces start most of these games, unlike with Manny, who had lineup ADD (I'll admit, with the defense, sometimes he was just trying square pegs for round holes). The Cubs outfield is a similar mess, with Piniella often sacrificing defense by keeping Reed Johnson on the bench in favor of Soriano, Bradley, and Fukodome in the outfield.
I think the Nats get off to a good start and win this one 6-4.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Rockies Series Preview
Myth 1: Coors Field is a pitcher's nightmare. What is this, 1995? While the altitude and dry air in Denver will never allow visiting pitchers to feel comfortable with their breaking pitches, there is one force that is constant everywhere: gravity. Check out the Rockies top 3 starters and note that all three have a fastball value over 5. While Ubaldo Jimenez has the velocity to over-power hitters, both Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook pound the bottom half of the strike zone with average fastballs. The key isn't to strike batters out, but to get batters out. Aaorn Cook, for instance, sports fairly similar K/9 ratios home and away. Even a Hall of Famer like Greg Maddux struggled to find consistency at Coors, posting drastically lower K rates there as opposed to elsewhere. Pitchers can succeed at Coors with the sinker. Combine that with an optimistic offense and lowered expectations and many pitchers can thrive. Rookies Zimmermann, Stammen, and Detwiler don't fit the profile at this team and may get hammered.
Myth 2: The Nationals are the only team with an over-crowded outfield. The Nats have solved some of their issues via trade and demotion, but the Rockies have yet to find a home for all their hitters. Brad Hawpe is anchored in right and has earned it. Trading Matt Holliday opened left field for a fresh young bat, but the Rockies continue to go another direction. The second best hitter on the club, Seth Smith, has been relegated to pinch hitting duties while Ryan Spilborghs gets half the at bats. The Rockies do commit to defense to protect their ridiculous outfield acreage, but Smith has proven to be more than adequate in left. This isn't exactly Nyjer Morgan over Josh Willingham here. The Nats can only hope for more Spilborghs (and Dexter Fowler) to help get their young pitchers through the lineup three times.
Myth 3: Garrett Atkins sucks. Atkins had a Kearnsian May, but started swinging the bat well again in June. His season line is still weak, but still needs to be pitched to with respect.
Myth 4: Home runs are key at Coors. Flat out not true. It is true that if you give up four bombs, it is difficult to win, but it is equally difficult if the other team is dropping base hits all over and batting .400... outfield defense in Coors always takes a back seat the offensive numbers. Coors is an enormous park and watching Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris run down balls that would be certain doubles and triples should tip Manny off as to how he should approach this series. Willingham and Dunn will see some innings off, especially given the taxing conditions of playing at altitude.
Tough draw for the Nats here. Detwiler and Stammen are still AAAA level starters, while Zimmermann is strike out guy who leaves the occasional ball out over the plate. Could be a long three days in Denver. And let's not get started on the bullpen...
Myth 2: The Nationals are the only team with an over-crowded outfield. The Nats have solved some of their issues via trade and demotion, but the Rockies have yet to find a home for all their hitters. Brad Hawpe is anchored in right and has earned it. Trading Matt Holliday opened left field for a fresh young bat, but the Rockies continue to go another direction. The second best hitter on the club, Seth Smith, has been relegated to pinch hitting duties while Ryan Spilborghs gets half the at bats. The Rockies do commit to defense to protect their ridiculous outfield acreage, but Smith has proven to be more than adequate in left. This isn't exactly Nyjer Morgan over Josh Willingham here. The Nats can only hope for more Spilborghs (and Dexter Fowler) to help get their young pitchers through the lineup three times.
Myth 3: Garrett Atkins sucks. Atkins had a Kearnsian May, but started swinging the bat well again in June. His season line is still weak, but still needs to be pitched to with respect.
Myth 4: Home runs are key at Coors. Flat out not true. It is true that if you give up four bombs, it is difficult to win, but it is equally difficult if the other team is dropping base hits all over and batting .400... outfield defense in Coors always takes a back seat the offensive numbers. Coors is an enormous park and watching Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris run down balls that would be certain doubles and triples should tip Manny off as to how he should approach this series. Willingham and Dunn will see some innings off, especially given the taxing conditions of playing at altitude.
Tough draw for the Nats here. Detwiler and Stammen are still AAAA level starters, while Zimmermann is strike out guy who leaves the occasional ball out over the plate. Could be a long three days in Denver. And let's not get started on the bullpen...
Monday, June 29, 2009
Marlins Series Preview
Monday: Scott Olsen at Ricky Nolasco
Tuesday: Jordan Zimmermann at Sean West
Wednesday: Ross Detwiler at Josh Johnson
Talk about two teams trying to build around young pitching. Ricky Nolasco is the older pitcher starting in this series, and he is only 26. Olsen and Johnson are 25, and the other three guys are born in 1986, when it was still Hip to Be Square (note, Bale says 1987, which is incorrect, as “Fore” was released in 1986).
Nolasco has been experiencing his own Jekyll and Hyde act, though he has been much more Jekyll than Hyde recently. The Marlins gave him a couple weeks off at the end of May, and since then, he has regained his 2008 form (Rizzo, take notes). Josh Johnson is in the running for Cy Young, and Sean West is showing that he may be capable of replicating Johnson’s success. The Marlins have not been able to take control of this division for three reasons. First, until recently, the back end of their rotation was unsettled, much like the Nats. Now that Nolasco, West, and Andrew Miller have settled in, they have five guys that have potential frontline stuff. Second, they start the man known as “The Worst Everyday Player in Baseball”. They also choose to bat him near the top of the order. Finally, they don’t get to play the Nats everyday, to who they have yet to lose this season in six games.
The Marlins are an average offensive team, and despite their pitching prowess, a bad defensive team. Not quite as bad as the Nats, but certainly bottom third. And given the fact many of these bad fielders are young, emerging hitters, they don’t look to be getting better. Much like the Red Sox series, the Nats need to focus putting the ball in play. Dolphin Stadium is a pitcher’s park, so the key will be to work the defense and not let them off the hook.
The Nats may have dropped the first six against the fish, but that was a different team. The Marlins haven’t seen J Zimm or Detwiler, and Olsen could be out for blood because he is an angry young man. It should be noted that the Nats are 0-6 in the state of Florida, also having been swept by the Rays. One win out of three would be a nice start.
Tuesday: Jordan Zimmermann at Sean West
Wednesday: Ross Detwiler at Josh Johnson
Talk about two teams trying to build around young pitching. Ricky Nolasco is the older pitcher starting in this series, and he is only 26. Olsen and Johnson are 25, and the other three guys are born in 1986, when it was still Hip to Be Square (note, Bale says 1987, which is incorrect, as “Fore” was released in 1986).
Nolasco has been experiencing his own Jekyll and Hyde act, though he has been much more Jekyll than Hyde recently. The Marlins gave him a couple weeks off at the end of May, and since then, he has regained his 2008 form (Rizzo, take notes). Josh Johnson is in the running for Cy Young, and Sean West is showing that he may be capable of replicating Johnson’s success. The Marlins have not been able to take control of this division for three reasons. First, until recently, the back end of their rotation was unsettled, much like the Nats. Now that Nolasco, West, and Andrew Miller have settled in, they have five guys that have potential frontline stuff. Second, they start the man known as “The Worst Everyday Player in Baseball”. They also choose to bat him near the top of the order. Finally, they don’t get to play the Nats everyday, to who they have yet to lose this season in six games.
The Marlins are an average offensive team, and despite their pitching prowess, a bad defensive team. Not quite as bad as the Nats, but certainly bottom third. And given the fact many of these bad fielders are young, emerging hitters, they don’t look to be getting better. Much like the Red Sox series, the Nats need to focus putting the ball in play. Dolphin Stadium is a pitcher’s park, so the key will be to work the defense and not let them off the hook.
The Nats may have dropped the first six against the fish, but that was a different team. The Marlins haven’t seen J Zimm or Detwiler, and Olsen could be out for blood because he is an angry young man. It should be noted that the Nats are 0-6 in the state of Florida, also having been swept by the Rays. One win out of three would be a nice start.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Red Sox Series Preview
Tuesday: John Lannan vs. Brad Penny
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
Wednesday: Craig Stammen vs. John Lester
Thursday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. John Smoltz
ESPN would like you to believe that the Red Sox are an unstoppable juggernaut that cannot be contained. They have seven dominating starters and an impenetrable bullpen and their 1 – 9 hitters are better than all yours. ESPN would put the Red Sox -130 against the NL All-Stars in a seven game series. Of course, most people at ESPN have no clue what they are talking about.
In truth, the Red Sox currently face a few of the same issues the Nationals have faced this year. First, both teams play awful defense. They rank 29th and 30th in UZR/150. About the only positive move that the Red Sox have been able to make to address this is to install Nick Green as the full time shortstop, and he is a career backup who has picked up most of his major league at bats due to injury (Marcus Giles, now Jed Lowrie). Despite his speed, Jacoby Ellsbury’s metrics have been poor, and Jason Bay is their version of Josh Willingham. Mike Lowell has been awful at third and has to have management considering moving Youkilis back over, although even Youk has been banged up. The horrible defense has made starters Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Jon Lester, and Dice-K look much worse than they have actually pitched, all posting an ERA-FIP of +0.50 or better. Detwiler, Stammen, and Zimmermann post similar numbers.
The second similarity is how each team has hit an offensive slump in June. Check out their numbers this month:
Pedroia: .178/.250/.455
Youkilis: .210/.372/.775
Bay: .246/.333/.783
Varitek: .190/.320/.653
Kotsay: .259/.286/.656
Lowell: .220/.299/.637
That is some ugliness right there. The only reason the Red Sox haven’t completely folded has been their pitching and David Ortiz’ Vitamin B-12 shipment finally clearing customs. The Nats have endured similar droughts, punctuated by Zimmerman’s recent .217/.313./631 slide (and 0-15 Toronto series) and Austin Kearns incomprehensible .063/.231/.293. Adam Dunn looks like he is not seeing the ball as well, and has resorted to slapping the ball on occasion.
The third is that they both have pitchers that they trying to exorcise. Dice-K is back on the DL with a minor shoulder strain, and Scott Olsen is floundering in AAA with diagnosed shoulder tendinitis. Management is struggling to figure out what to do with each once they are off the DL. The Nats at least have a reason to play Olsen, in an effort to keep their rookie innings down. The Red Sox have a front line starter rotting in AAA, and another rotting as a mop-up man.
The Red Sox do have more talented players; they paid out their backside for this roster. The Nats avoid the Red Sox two toughest tasks, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. The other guys are beatable. The chess match between the managers will be interesting. Manny will likely be tempted to go with the hideous Willingham/Dukes/Dunn outfield, but the team would be best served to give Harris two games in center and Dunn Wednesday off against Lester. I think Lannan gives the Red Sox a couple meatballs, but not enough to put the game out of reach. (Side note: uh, what is the deal with Brad Penny? The Red Sox have him listed at 230, way down from the 270 he was playing at with the Dodgers.) Two of three will be there for the taking again, as long as the bullpen continues to control damage.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Yankees Series Preview
Tuesday: Shairon Martis at CC Sabathia
Wednesday: John Lannan at C-M Wang
Thursday: Craig Stammen at Joba Chamberlain
Manny Acta will manage this series. I doubt that will have any impact on the outcomes of these games, though. The Nationals have been swamped in bad press, losing, and personnel changes all season, so this should not surprise anyone on the roster, though it may be a little discouraging to some of the barely legal starting pitchers.
The Yankees outspend everyone to amass the most prolific arsenal of sporting talent outside of Madrid. This is no secret. The Nationals made a fair offer for Mark Teixeira’s services, but were a near non-factor in the bidding. Experts knew that the Nats had little to no chance landing him. Honestly, for that amount of money, it wasn’t worth it. Teixeira’s numbers are highly inflated from playing in Texas and he would have struggled in a non-hitters’ park. It should also be noted that with the exception of 2006, his home/away splits look like something out of Denver. Most telling is that two organizations felt that prospects in return were enough to part with his services. Baseball Reference is not exactly flattering with its player comps, with only Jeff Bagwell knocking on Cooperstown’s door. And until his contract year, he only once did he crack the top 8 first basemen in Win Probability Added, and that was way back in 2004. His agent did a very good job of selling him, and the Yankees have been rewarded with 37 extra base hits by June 15th. This would be impressive if the Yankees didn’t have eight players on pace for thirty bombs each. In summary, the Yankees wildly overspent to get Teixeira, and given their new stadium, almost any first baseman can become a .300/.550/.950 guy.
By loading up on sluggers, the Yankees, similar to the Nationals, have been awful defensively. Their numbers appear improved this year, but that may be an effect of all the balls leaving the stadium. Brett Gardner has vastly improved the outfield defense, but their infield is dreadful. A-Rod looks like he may be headed to first base sooner than anticipated, and Robinson Cano appears to be asleep while the ball is being pitched. If the Nats can put the ball in play consistently, the holes are there.
On the flip side, Martis, Lannan, and Stammen must keep the ball down. Even pop flies and broken bat bloopers turn into home runs here. I really do not trust Stammen in this kind of environment, but he has the advantage of the day game, so if he goes after hitters early, hopefully he can trick them into chasing balls out of the zone. The most damning stat of all is the Yankees 0.68 BB/K ratio, second to the Mets. The Phillies and Braves are also amongst the league leaders in this stat, and the Nats have fared poorly against all those teams. The Yankees will not give away outs.
Dead Man Walking will have his hands full taking one out of three in the Bronx. The weak link is Cashman, who is insistent upon giving away every fifth game by trotting Wang out there. Offensively, the key is to just put the ball in play. Hits can’t happen without that, and home runs will happen naturally here.
Wednesday: John Lannan at C-M Wang
Thursday: Craig Stammen at Joba Chamberlain
Manny Acta will manage this series. I doubt that will have any impact on the outcomes of these games, though. The Nationals have been swamped in bad press, losing, and personnel changes all season, so this should not surprise anyone on the roster, though it may be a little discouraging to some of the barely legal starting pitchers.
The Yankees outspend everyone to amass the most prolific arsenal of sporting talent outside of Madrid. This is no secret. The Nationals made a fair offer for Mark Teixeira’s services, but were a near non-factor in the bidding. Experts knew that the Nats had little to no chance landing him. Honestly, for that amount of money, it wasn’t worth it. Teixeira’s numbers are highly inflated from playing in Texas and he would have struggled in a non-hitters’ park. It should also be noted that with the exception of 2006, his home/away splits look like something out of Denver. Most telling is that two organizations felt that prospects in return were enough to part with his services. Baseball Reference is not exactly flattering with its player comps, with only Jeff Bagwell knocking on Cooperstown’s door. And until his contract year, he only once did he crack the top 8 first basemen in Win Probability Added, and that was way back in 2004. His agent did a very good job of selling him, and the Yankees have been rewarded with 37 extra base hits by June 15th. This would be impressive if the Yankees didn’t have eight players on pace for thirty bombs each. In summary, the Yankees wildly overspent to get Teixeira, and given their new stadium, almost any first baseman can become a .300/.550/.950 guy.
By loading up on sluggers, the Yankees, similar to the Nationals, have been awful defensively. Their numbers appear improved this year, but that may be an effect of all the balls leaving the stadium. Brett Gardner has vastly improved the outfield defense, but their infield is dreadful. A-Rod looks like he may be headed to first base sooner than anticipated, and Robinson Cano appears to be asleep while the ball is being pitched. If the Nats can put the ball in play consistently, the holes are there.
On the flip side, Martis, Lannan, and Stammen must keep the ball down. Even pop flies and broken bat bloopers turn into home runs here. I really do not trust Stammen in this kind of environment, but he has the advantage of the day game, so if he goes after hitters early, hopefully he can trick them into chasing balls out of the zone. The most damning stat of all is the Yankees 0.68 BB/K ratio, second to the Mets. The Phillies and Braves are also amongst the league leaders in this stat, and the Nats have fared poorly against all those teams. The Yankees will not give away outs.
Dead Man Walking will have his hands full taking one out of three in the Bronx. The weak link is Cashman, who is insistent upon giving away every fifth game by trotting Wang out there. Offensively, the key is to just put the ball in play. Hits can’t happen without that, and home runs will happen naturally here.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Rays the Series Preview
No Steaks, just baseball nonsense.
Friday: Craig Stammen vs. Matt Garza
Saturday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. Andy Sonnanstine
Sunday: Ross Detwiler vs. James Shields
To put the last week in perspective, if you remove the high and low values, the Nats are averaging a little over a run and a half per game (overall, it was 17 runs in 8 games, 7 coming during Lannan’s CG). That makes winning very difficult. The pitching staff has held up their end of the bargain, giving up just 3.5 runs/game (removing the high and low values). Lower scoring games are more manageable, but holy crap guys. Manufacture a run. It looks like the Nats bullpen may finally have rounded into form, though I think Colome or Tavarez will get the boot once Kip Wells returns. This is extremely good news.
The Rays are much better than their .500 record indicates and should have no problem taking at least two of three, though a sweep is likely. Now that they have moved Kazmir to the DL, their rotation is deeper than almost anyone, especially if they don’t allow Andy Sonnanstine to pitch on the road. Their weakness, which the Nats can pounce on, is their bullpen. It isn’t awful, but they just aren’t as effective as last season. The Nats, scored 6 of their seven runs in the Reds’ series after the fifth inning. If this is trend, they may be able to steal a game or two.
In steps Lee Corso: NOT SO FAST. The Rays are the highest scoring team in baseball and sport the second highest run differential in the league… and they are at home. Corso then puts on a Ray Romano mask and the home crowd goes wild.
The important thing for the Nats will be if J Zimm gets his pitches. After pitching in the rain last Thursday after the rain out, his schedule was off so the skipped start was probably a wise decision. Hopefully he continues to throw strikes. Adam Dunn will be at DH, which should vastly improve the defense, and the turf should help the infield out. This give Manny fewer options in the outfield, but Willingham, Harris, and Dukes would be the most productive bet for all three games.
The Nats are my Ray of cloud on a sunny day...
Friday: Craig Stammen vs. Matt Garza
Saturday: Jordan Zimmermann vs. Andy Sonnanstine
Sunday: Ross Detwiler vs. James Shields
To put the last week in perspective, if you remove the high and low values, the Nats are averaging a little over a run and a half per game (overall, it was 17 runs in 8 games, 7 coming during Lannan’s CG). That makes winning very difficult. The pitching staff has held up their end of the bargain, giving up just 3.5 runs/game (removing the high and low values). Lower scoring games are more manageable, but holy crap guys. Manufacture a run. It looks like the Nats bullpen may finally have rounded into form, though I think Colome or Tavarez will get the boot once Kip Wells returns. This is extremely good news.
The Rays are much better than their .500 record indicates and should have no problem taking at least two of three, though a sweep is likely. Now that they have moved Kazmir to the DL, their rotation is deeper than almost anyone, especially if they don’t allow Andy Sonnanstine to pitch on the road. Their weakness, which the Nats can pounce on, is their bullpen. It isn’t awful, but they just aren’t as effective as last season. The Nats, scored 6 of their seven runs in the Reds’ series after the fifth inning. If this is trend, they may be able to steal a game or two.
In steps Lee Corso: NOT SO FAST. The Rays are the highest scoring team in baseball and sport the second highest run differential in the league… and they are at home. Corso then puts on a Ray Romano mask and the home crowd goes wild.
The important thing for the Nats will be if J Zimm gets his pitches. After pitching in the rain last Thursday after the rain out, his schedule was off so the skipped start was probably a wise decision. Hopefully he continues to throw strikes. Adam Dunn will be at DH, which should vastly improve the defense, and the turf should help the infield out. This give Manny fewer options in the outfield, but Willingham, Harris, and Dukes would be the most productive bet for all three games.
The Nats are my Ray of cloud on a sunny day...
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Reds Series Preview
That is, unless the stadium got swept down the river this morning.
Tuesday: Johnny Cueto vs Jordan Zimmermann
Wednesday: Aaron Harang vs Ross Detwiler
Thursday: Micah Owings vs Shairon Martis
It is clear the state of pitching depth within the Nationals organization is now at epic fail. Ross Detwiler was really only supposed to be up for a couple starts before returning to Harrisburg, or maybe Syracuse. Remember, he only had 124 innings of unspectacular high-A ball under his belt, and until this May, his major league potential was a question mark. Now that he is here, and has proven he can pitch at this level for a while, what the heck is his deal? He strikes out batters, walks a few… yet has yielded a freakishly high .358 BABIP in his pro career. This has been the norm when he was wild at Potomac last year, solid at Harrisburg, and now with the big club. It seems to be just him as all the other young Nats pitchers’ BABIPs seem to vary from club to club. So what is making Detwiler so hittable, as opposed to John Lannan, who apparently has adopted a Zen-like power to induce double-plays and cruise through games without strike outs? Something that will be looked into this week…
Lucky for the Nationals they do not have to face the Reds’ best hitter or pitcher. Sorry Mr. Harang and Mr. Cueto, but this guy, when healthy, is the #1. Joey Votto also continues to deal with some sort of condition that really is not being fully disclosed. Both are on the DL. The Reds have gone 6-11 in games Votto did not start and complete since May 15th, including 2-8 on the road. The Reds really have to adjust their strategy to generate runs without much power in their lineup right now. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Laynce Nix will hit home runs if they get contact, but they fail to do that pretty often. They do not steal many bases, and also find themselves at the bottom of the table in doubles, despite having Willy Taveras’ speed. The Reds thrive off the long ball, but cannot get things going if it isn’t there. This should help the Nats mask their poor defense.
In the end, though, the Nats really have to find some offense of their own to take some pressure off the pitching staff (which looks like it got to Stammen Sunday). They can start by parking Austin Kearns on the bench for a couple days. An outfield of Dukes, Harris, and Dunn will be much more efficient. Getting Willingham out of bed would also help, as he was starting to round into form; with the Nats luck, he has swine flu. Is Alberto Gonzalez better than Anderson Hernandez? Probably, not that that is difficult. Improving the defense up the middle would be nice, but it is hard to tell with these options.
Tuesday: Johnny Cueto vs Jordan Zimmermann
Wednesday: Aaron Harang vs Ross Detwiler
Thursday: Micah Owings vs Shairon Martis
It is clear the state of pitching depth within the Nationals organization is now at epic fail. Ross Detwiler was really only supposed to be up for a couple starts before returning to Harrisburg, or maybe Syracuse. Remember, he only had 124 innings of unspectacular high-A ball under his belt, and until this May, his major league potential was a question mark. Now that he is here, and has proven he can pitch at this level for a while, what the heck is his deal? He strikes out batters, walks a few… yet has yielded a freakishly high .358 BABIP in his pro career. This has been the norm when he was wild at Potomac last year, solid at Harrisburg, and now with the big club. It seems to be just him as all the other young Nats pitchers’ BABIPs seem to vary from club to club. So what is making Detwiler so hittable, as opposed to John Lannan, who apparently has adopted a Zen-like power to induce double-plays and cruise through games without strike outs? Something that will be looked into this week…
Lucky for the Nationals they do not have to face the Reds’ best hitter or pitcher. Sorry Mr. Harang and Mr. Cueto, but this guy, when healthy, is the #1. Joey Votto also continues to deal with some sort of condition that really is not being fully disclosed. Both are on the DL. The Reds have gone 6-11 in games Votto did not start and complete since May 15th, including 2-8 on the road. The Reds really have to adjust their strategy to generate runs without much power in their lineup right now. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Laynce Nix will hit home runs if they get contact, but they fail to do that pretty often. They do not steal many bases, and also find themselves at the bottom of the table in doubles, despite having Willy Taveras’ speed. The Reds thrive off the long ball, but cannot get things going if it isn’t there. This should help the Nats mask their poor defense.
In the end, though, the Nats really have to find some offense of their own to take some pressure off the pitching staff (which looks like it got to Stammen Sunday). They can start by parking Austin Kearns on the bench for a couple days. An outfield of Dukes, Harris, and Dunn will be much more efficient. Getting Willingham out of bed would also help, as he was starting to round into form; with the Nats luck, he has swine flu. Is Alberto Gonzalez better than Anderson Hernandez? Probably, not that that is difficult. Improving the defense up the middle would be nice, but it is hard to tell with these options.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Giants Series Preview
Tuesday: Tim Lincecum vs. Craig Stammen
Wednesday: Randy Johnson vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Thursday: Matt Cain vs. Ross Detwiler
Wow, and the hits just keep coming for the Nationals. After going on the road to pad the two division leaders’ stats, the Nats come home to face last year’s Cy Young Award winner, the last 300 game winner the league will have for a decade (if ever), and the 2007 and 2008 award winner for unluckiest pitcher ever who is getting all the luck this year.
Hopefully, this series will instead highlight the resistible force vs. the moveable object theme. We know the Nationals’ pitching and defense has been more than generous to opposing offenses. It is the Giants’ offense that may choose not to take advantage, as only Seattle averages fewer runs per game. Their “Who-dat” lineup has posted a ghastly 78 OPS+ this season, and they continue to give prime corner at-bats to noodle-bat Travis Ishikawa and decomposing before our eyes Rich Aurilia. Their 26 team home runs ranks just ahead of Adrian Gonzalez (yes, that is a guy, not a team), and to be frank, they could be the most offensively challenged team of the decade, just ahead of the flaccid 2004 Backs.
Ahh, the things we wish. However, it will likely be decided by Lincecum maintaining his dominant form, Johnson making history, and the Nationals leaving roughly 36 runners on base in a 3-2 loss to Cain. Lincecum is actually striking out more batters per 9 than last season and has given up zero home runs while posting a 1.02 WHIP over his last eight starts. Shades of Greinke… It would not surprise me to see something special Tuesday. If Randy Johnson were not chasing history, I’d say he would be hittable. However, the Nats do like to take a reality show approach to staying in the limelight, so expect vintage Johnson.
As far as the Nationals pitchers go, expect strikes, as Detwiler and Stammen are on stupidly low pitch counts, and hopefully somebody gets J. Zimm settled down before he puts together another first inning implosion.
Wednesday: Randy Johnson vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Thursday: Matt Cain vs. Ross Detwiler
Wow, and the hits just keep coming for the Nationals. After going on the road to pad the two division leaders’ stats, the Nats come home to face last year’s Cy Young Award winner, the last 300 game winner the league will have for a decade (if ever), and the 2007 and 2008 award winner for unluckiest pitcher ever who is getting all the luck this year.
Hopefully, this series will instead highlight the resistible force vs. the moveable object theme. We know the Nationals’ pitching and defense has been more than generous to opposing offenses. It is the Giants’ offense that may choose not to take advantage, as only Seattle averages fewer runs per game. Their “Who-dat” lineup has posted a ghastly 78 OPS+ this season, and they continue to give prime corner at-bats to noodle-bat Travis Ishikawa and decomposing before our eyes Rich Aurilia. Their 26 team home runs ranks just ahead of Adrian Gonzalez (yes, that is a guy, not a team), and to be frank, they could be the most offensively challenged team of the decade, just ahead of the flaccid 2004 Backs.
Ahh, the things we wish. However, it will likely be decided by Lincecum maintaining his dominant form, Johnson making history, and the Nationals leaving roughly 36 runners on base in a 3-2 loss to Cain. Lincecum is actually striking out more batters per 9 than last season and has given up zero home runs while posting a 1.02 WHIP over his last eight starts. Shades of Greinke… It would not surprise me to see something special Tuesday. If Randy Johnson were not chasing history, I’d say he would be hittable. However, the Nats do like to take a reality show approach to staying in the limelight, so expect vintage Johnson.
As far as the Nationals pitchers go, expect strikes, as Detwiler and Stammen are on stupidly low pitch counts, and hopefully somebody gets J. Zimm settled down before he puts together another first inning implosion.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Phillies Series Preview
Friday: Ross Detweiler vs JA Happ
Saturday: Shairon Martis vs Cole Hamels
Sunday: John Lannan vs Jamie Moyer
Just as a refresher, JA Happ is the man who came out of the bullpen two Fridays ago and with a runner on struck out Johnson, Zimmerman, and Dunn to force a 12th inning. Despite Hamels being the ace, Happ will likely be the toughest puzzle to solve. Right now, his numbers look great, but when you dig a little deeper, Happ has been a strike out pitcher at every professional level. Since moving to the majors, however, despite what he did to the heart of the Nats order, he has been absorbing more contact all the while posting a .219 BABIP. Has Happ been lucky? Possibly. Do these tactics figure to work as the Phillies move him into the rotation? Probably not. He is a lefty who has shown he can get the Nats big bats out, so it will be interesting to see how Manny sets his lineup tonight. The Phillies are absorbing a big blow losing Brett Myers, so the Nats need to make the most of this opportunity to exact some revenge.
After a shaky start, Hamels looks to be rounding back into frontline form. Another lefty will give Manny more decisions to make with the lineup. The key will be to get his pitch count up early and have him out of the game by the sixth. Happ probably won't go too deep, so getting to their bullpen two straight days will create some opportunities against the likes Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. A third straight lefty will follow Sunday with Jamie Moyer, who has really struggled this year with the Medicare cuts. He has always skated by with low K rates, but now his command is a little off and teams are crushing him.
Getting Jesus Flores back will definitely help, and we know what to expect from the top four slots in the batting order. Willingham should get a decent audition this weekend, and Dunn will probably move to first for a game to get Kearns some swings. Honestly, if Kearns cannot get going against these lefties, it may be time to eat the contract... Rizzo does get tired of watching people.
As far as the Nats starters go, continue throwing strikes! The Phils are going to get their runs with the loaded middle of their lineup, but it's best to avoid big innings by walking guys who a are struggling, like Rollins and Victorino. Once again, the Nats cannot spot their opponent two to four runs in the first inning, as they have been often this season.
The best thing going for the Nats this series is that it cannot possibly be as bad as their last stand against Philly. There are only three opportunities to blow it this time. And what are the odds Martis stays perfect? I vote good... just a hunch.
Saturday: Shairon Martis vs Cole Hamels
Sunday: John Lannan vs Jamie Moyer
Just as a refresher, JA Happ is the man who came out of the bullpen two Fridays ago and with a runner on struck out Johnson, Zimmerman, and Dunn to force a 12th inning. Despite Hamels being the ace, Happ will likely be the toughest puzzle to solve. Right now, his numbers look great, but when you dig a little deeper, Happ has been a strike out pitcher at every professional level. Since moving to the majors, however, despite what he did to the heart of the Nats order, he has been absorbing more contact all the while posting a .219 BABIP. Has Happ been lucky? Possibly. Do these tactics figure to work as the Phillies move him into the rotation? Probably not. He is a lefty who has shown he can get the Nats big bats out, so it will be interesting to see how Manny sets his lineup tonight. The Phillies are absorbing a big blow losing Brett Myers, so the Nats need to make the most of this opportunity to exact some revenge.
After a shaky start, Hamels looks to be rounding back into frontline form. Another lefty will give Manny more decisions to make with the lineup. The key will be to get his pitch count up early and have him out of the game by the sixth. Happ probably won't go too deep, so getting to their bullpen two straight days will create some opportunities against the likes Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. A third straight lefty will follow Sunday with Jamie Moyer, who has really struggled this year with the Medicare cuts. He has always skated by with low K rates, but now his command is a little off and teams are crushing him.
Getting Jesus Flores back will definitely help, and we know what to expect from the top four slots in the batting order. Willingham should get a decent audition this weekend, and Dunn will probably move to first for a game to get Kearns some swings. Honestly, if Kearns cannot get going against these lefties, it may be time to eat the contract... Rizzo does get tired of watching people.
As far as the Nats starters go, continue throwing strikes! The Phils are going to get their runs with the loaded middle of their lineup, but it's best to avoid big innings by walking guys who a are struggling, like Rollins and Victorino. Once again, the Nats cannot spot their opponent two to four runs in the first inning, as they have been often this season.
The best thing going for the Nats this series is that it cannot possibly be as bad as their last stand against Philly. There are only three opportunities to blow it this time. And what are the odds Martis stays perfect? I vote good... just a hunch.
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