Bobbleheads

I'm sure I will post a picture of the Big Donkey at some point, but here are the highlights of Saturday's American baseball contest at Nationals Park on the Anacostia.

* Nyjer Morgan made several routine outs in center field. These are only routine for Nyjer Morgan, as most other Nats outfielders would need a rocket up their ass just t get to the ball, only to have it glance off the end of their glove for a triple.

* Willie Harris' triple. The triple is almost always the most exciting play in baseball. Even if there is no play at third, there is always the anticipation there could be.

* Alberto Gonzalez making to great defensive plays to keep the Backs off the board in the 5th. Either those get in for would result in a run and up comes Reynolds for a chance to break the game open. Ryan Zimmerman played typically stellar D as well.

* The eighth inning starting at 8:50... wow!

* Each time Chris Young stepped into the batter's box, I called for the strikeout. I was one game ending pitch from being 4 for 4. The Golden Sombrero was lurking for Young, easily the most overmatched hitter getting regular plate appearances now.

* Josh Willingham not being close on any of the first four pitches Haren offered him, prompting me to note that maybe it wouldn't be his night... CRACK!!

* Hit a 380 foot fly ball to center, prompting me to note that it was about as far as he is going to hit the ball. He responded later with a 400 foot home run to right-center. Well played, Mr. Bard. Foiled again.

* Garrett Mock was about 4 feet from six shutout innings of four hit ball. The defense helped, and the Backs, outside of Drew, Reynolds, and Montero, are a AAA lineup, but Mock needed a boost like this. It was like the International League for him!

* It is strange watching them battle back in games and hold on with stellar defense. It is amazing how one or two personnel moves can improve attitude and morale this much. The problem with their spring roster was that there wasn't a "leader" on the team. No vocal presence. If there is nobody to point a finger when something goes wrong, or something has to get accomplished, everybody is going to sit back and watch the ship sink. The team brings in Nyjer Morgan, who never stops talking, things start to get done. The team lets Manny Acta and his stoic in-game expression go, and guys start getting to balls they weren't.

For the record, it is Goddamn near impossible to generate a winning streak of any kind sending out four rookie pitchers. A seven game streak reflects upon 25 guys doing their best to beat the other 25 guys night in and out. That and Josh Willingham is the second best hitter in the NL right now... well, maybe third.

The Elastic Effect

The Nats were drowning in quicksand just a week or so ago, but now they are riding a brief, somewhat thrilling, three-game winning streak. They haven't been blowing teams out, but they are keeping themselves in games. The Nats suffered some misfortune to assist their general poor play. When games got tight in the later innings, every player had a "deer in the headlights" look. They didn't "know" how win and being afraid of failure begets more failure.

Take a look at what the Rockies have been doing this month. After struggling mightily for their first forty-five games, enough so Clint Hurdle was relieved of managerial duties, they have caught fire like nobody's business. The attitude around the locker room has been described as loose, everyone is having more fun. Of course winning is more fun. But here is another chicken/egg conundrum for the Nats. Which comes first: the winning or the fun?

The damning truth is the winning has to come first. Some teams stockpile talent using vastly superior resources (money) to assemble a winning team. However, most teams coming out of spring training know that it is hard work to win over a sixth month period, and only eight teams will reach that goal. The Nats that came out of spring training were a miscast group of young players and veterans. Nobody on the roster was 27 or 28, basically the age when players are entering their "prime". They did not have an established leader in the clubhouse, and thankfully management made an effort to solve that by the end of April by signing Zimmerman long term.

Then this week happened. The Nats had found every conceivable way to lose this season, but then on Wednesday, the bullpen held strong. Thursday, Craig Stammen delivered like he was back on the farm, only he was doing it in Yankee Stadium. Friday the Nats spoiled numerous opportunities to to put the game away with their bats, the defense tried desperately to give the game away with their gloves, but the bullpen pulled a couple critical outs to extend the game. Finally, they snuck off a single and it was over. Then on Saturday, to prove Friday's extra-inning bonanza wasn't a fluke, Willie Harris goes deep for another walk-off win. The Nats managed to collect a fifth (not of Jack Daniels) of their season win total in four days. Embarrassing and awesome at the same time.

While it would be foolish to believe that the Nats are going to on a 14-1 run, the signs are there. Cristian Guzman is even running hard down to first base to beat out ground balls. Why now? The players won a few games and it felt good, and now they believe they can win again. They believe the starting pitchers will keep them in games and the relief pitchers will not spoil things. Better yet, the pitchers are beginning to believe in themselves.

The "elastic effect" happens in all sports, though it is a phenomenon observed less in football, due to fewer games. Very few professional athletes are not born to lose; most have experienced success at every level to make to the highest stage, and losing is an unacceptable outcome. Over the course of a season, luck will even out with the best teams winning two out of three games... and the worst losing two out of three. Even if the Nats were the worst (many metrics show that they are not), they have been playing well below their potential and have been due for a little luck and momentum to go their way. To make a run at the all-time loss record, the Nats would need to seriously downgrade their roster, probably crushing any chance the team has to survive in this city long term.

Instead, expect the Nats to make small strides the rest of the year, with a few winning streaks followed by continued growing pains. The Nats need to go 43-52 down the stretch to avoid 100 losses, thereby improving on the 2008 disaster. Probably a reach, but far from impossible.

The Bullpen Nails One Down

Well, John Lannan deserved this one. I know the dozens of people watching at home cringed when Manny emerged from the dugout and signaled for a reliever. It got dicey when Brett Gardner started running wild (stole on a pitchout, not easy) and MacDougal lost A-Rod. But MacDougal trusts his stuff, and he's worked the end game before. Cano had been lighting up the Nats, but he kept railing him with that fastball, and Cano kept stabbing, hoping for a mistake. I was hoping he change his plane, get him chasing a high fastball or one low and away, but he kept putting it knee-high, 4 inches out, 96 mph and tailing away. Finally, Cano did what he was supposed to, rolling the designed double play ball to second.

They get Joba today at lunch. The Nats got their one to avoid the sweep, and can fluster Chamberlain by working longer counts.