Deception, or Lucky

John Lannan recorded a season high five strikeouts last night, rolling through the Arizona lineup like Halladay. Obviously he has to be doing something different, right?

I dropped in a few links below to the pitch f/x data of a couple of his previous starts to contrast to this one.

Arizona, Aug 13

Colorado, May 13

Chicago, April 26

And for good measure, his start against the Yankees last season.

One thing is for certain, by that Colorado start, the velocity on his fastball was down 2 mph. Another thing that makes Lannan unique is that he really uses the whole strike zone. He almost never throws to the same location twice. Is it by design or lack of control, hard to tell. The release point last season was much higher, but earlier this season he had drawn it. Most pitchers drop the arm slot to compensate for an injury, and he has, but the horizontal point of release is also in, meaning he was bending and dropping his elbow more.

The key to his success last night was the swinging strikes on the changeup. If he can maintain these mechanics, he is disguising his release point a little better than earlier in the year. The key is to keep the motion "over the top" so that the ball is hidden behind his head as long as possible, making it tougher for righties to pick up. When the elbow is bent, the ball is coming from off his ear, and it is much easier to see (ironically, his opponent last night, Joe Saunders, has had similar issues with his changeup). Whether or not this is something he and Tomlin worked on is unknown, but he is throwing the ball slightly different than he had earlier this season. The increased velocity (89 mph avg) leads me to believe the adjustment is working.

It is still too early to tell if John Lannan is back. That was the Diamondbacks, and they tend to get themselves out a lot. He has about eight to ten starts to resurrect his season and get back into the rotation for next.

Now about that Marquis guy starting tonight...

Lannan Owns the Backs

Going into the game, John Lannan owned a 0.47 career ERA against Arizona, despite a 11:3 BB:K ratio... the ERA went up, but the strikeout ratio improved, as he made his second solid start since returning from the AA abyss. I'll want to take a look at the pitch f/x before making any bold claims explaining his resurgence (other than Arizona s-s-sucks). From an eyeball perspective, his delivery looks more over the top, which is allowing him to hide the ball a little better.

No Vacancies

Detwiler, Marquis, Zimmermann, Maya.

Who the heck ARE these guys? Well, we know who most of them are, as they have logged many quality innings on the DL. Going forward, these are the faces that will appear in the "Tomorrow's Starter" section of the Post, or the Interwebs, or whatever you read. Rounding it out, for the next forty innings of his career will be Strasburg.

So what does that mean for the other guys who have made almost all the starts for the Nationals this year? Most will be sent packing, whether by trade, non-tender, or outright release. The suspects.

Livan Hernandez, 22 starts: A sad case. It seems all Livo has ever wanted to do is pitch for the Expos and Nationals... everywhere else he lands, he struggles mightily. He has been the horse that has kept the rotation and bullpen from imploding, and he has finally learned to harness whatever his arm has left (to quote Harry Doyle, "KY ball to third..."). He has clearly earned consideration to fit into next season's rotation, but the Nats' surprising starting pitching depth has all but closed the book on his career, barring major injury. I'm sure he will surface some place next season, and he will take his lumps, but the only place he can succeed is with the Nats.

Craig Stammen, 19 starts: I almost feel like I should break this into two sections: Good Craig Stammen and Evil Craig Stammen. Good Craig Stammen is by no means an ace, but has shown that he can throw strikes, get ahead in the count, and bury pitches in the lower corners of the zone. He needs 90 pitches to work his 7 innings of 2 run, 8 hit, 1 walk ball. And he contributes at the plate and in the field, as well. Good Craig Stammen is the fourth or fifth starter on a good team. He may never be good enough to find a permanent home, but brings that "Jason Marquis" package with him. Evil Craig Stammen relies too much on a fastball he can't keep down, like an old man who just popped 9 Viagra. Evil Craig Stammen leaves the game after 73 pitches and 2 runners on down 5 runs. His bat doesn't matter because in his only plate appearance, Riggleman called for a sacrifice with one out, Wil Nieves on first, and Nyjer Morgan on deck. The problem is that there is no in between with Stammen; he either has it or he doesn't. And the Nats do not have the offensive firepower to overcome Evil Craig Stammen. Watching him for 19 starts last year and 19 starts this year, progress has clearly been made. Some people may indicate that the walks are up. This isn't a bad thing, as they are only up slightly, a product of working a slider into his arsenal. He can face batters a third time without them hitting just under .500 against him. With the right pitching coach, Stammen becomes the next Joel Piniero; with the Nats, he gets the AAAA label, someone who can't quite win at the highest level.

Luis Atilano, 16 starts: The data on Atilano is inconclusive. The Pitch f/x indicate that he is a better pitcher than Stammen, but the results state otherwise. Even aligning rookie seasons, Atilano clearly lacks an "out" pitch. Guys who have it may give up runs, sport the 5+ ERA, but the WHIP will be much lower, a product of teams capitalizing on mistakes. Atilano, like many Nats pitchers over the past two seasons, gets bled to death with singles and untimely walks. He does have his service time and options working in his favor, so he will get another season in Syracuse to learn the art of the strikeout, but that also works against him as to where he falls on the pecking order of spot starts and call-ups. The Nats haven't heard the last of Atilano, but to hear him in the near future means things have gone dreadfully wrong.

John Lannan, 15 starts: Every Nats fan refused to believe the statistics. They believed that John Lannan had an unnatural talent for drawing double plays and groundouts, working through the order three times with nary a strikeout. He was the peoples' hero, a soft-spoken affable guy. This season, all four wheels came off simultaneously. Nobody bothered to complain until late May, when the 20-15 mirage evaporated into the harsh urban reality that is baseball in southeast DC. A pitcher with a SO:BB ratio under 1.5 better have complete mastery of 4 pitches and have a great defense behind him (Jason Marquis). Most fail regardless, but a couple grind their way two a few respectable seasons and a major league career. A pitcher with a SO:BB ratio under 1.0 needs to be really good at selling cars or insurance. The excuses have ranged from injury to mechanical to confidence. There shouldn't be excuses. If there is a problem, then there is a plan to fix it. If it can't be fixed... And this is where Rizzo has to be careful. Lannan, like Daniel Cabrera, is a Jim Bowden guy. Jim Bowden bumped Lannan up to the big show ahead of schedule because he saw something in him, which was vindicated for 3 good seasons. Eventually, Rizzo is going to get sick of watching him loop waist-high 84 mph fastballs and five pitch walks and call for his dismissal. Whether he handles it like Cabrera and Milledge, or sends him out with honor will mean a lot to the fans who stood by the 102 and 103 loss teams. But if he CAN figure out the sink to his fastball, location of his slider, maybe he finds his way ahead of...

Scott Olsen, 10 starts: Talk about a guy who keeps shooting himself in the foot. Last year, he showed up injured, sucked, went on the DL, came back fresh but not 100%, pitched 3 good starts and went out for the season. This season he has avoided the sucking, but can't stay healthy. When he is healthy, he looks to be the strikeout pitcher the Nats sorely need, and a lefty to boot. But Scott Olsen, much like the Chevy Avalanche, is 76 inches of unfulfilled promise. The best scenario is that a team makes a waiver claim for him, and the Nats get a B or C prospect. More than likely, though, he will be non-tendered and the Nats will get nothing except 140 innings of replacement level pitching.

JD Martin, 9 starts: JD Martin has been the opposite end of the spectrum of the Atilano/Stammen phase. Martin looks awesome for four innings, walks a guy, gives up a single, then an error, then a long ball, and suddenly Batista is warming up with an out in the fifth. The numbers indicate that Martin should be pitching in the majors. The only number GMs are looking at is 28, the age he will be opening day next year. Rizzo isn't going to commit to a 28 year old with an injury history, especially not one giving up nearly 2 HR per 9. Martin, like Olsen, will likely be in a different organization at the start of camp.

Chien-Ming Wang, 0 starts: Not much to say about Wang, other than Rizzo took a gamble and Wang took the Nats money. The mysterious injury makes Jesus Flores look like Cal Ripken. At least we know what Flores has been doing, and know the extend to which he has and has not recovered. Wang, on the other hand, just throws. And someone will pay him again next year. I doubt it will be the Nats.

The pu-pu platter, 3 starts: Batista grabbed one in a spot start for Strasburg, and Chico grabbed another in the same situation for Lannan. Neither figure into next season's plans by no fault of their own. Batista is an expendable arm, and Chico is full recovered from surgery, but with the superior starting depth, really doesn't figure in to the top 10 even. Garrett Mock started the other game and was somehow diagnosed with a broken neck. The Nats seemed to be tiring of his reenactment of the first fifteen minutes of "The Fugitive" whenever he stepped on the mound, so he will likely fall into the "release" pile when he comes off the DL. Chuck James dominated both levels of minor league ball he played and may garner some consideration if he remains with the club. Shairon Martis, Erik Arnesen, and Jeff Mandel all pitched often at Syracuse, and none of them looked like they will ever make it beyond that level. Brad Meyers, Tom Millone, and Aaron Thompson still look at least one year away, maybe more.

The trick is getting teams interested in the players that do not fit into the plan. The best trading chip the Nats have this off-season is Marquis, he is signed for one more season, and has a history of being durable and bouncing back after a poor season. If the Nats think they are competing in the NL East next year (I hope not, but stranger things happen), maybe they hold on to him. If not, deal him for a corner outfielder or middle infielder. John Lannan and JD Martin are not at all appealing to a contender, so they will likely stay put. They can both provide replacement level performance if more than one of the designated five falter or gets traded.

The perception is that the Nats have too much starting pitching. That may be true, but it may also be true that they are tricking themselves into those infomercial "buy one get one free" deals. Two of crap is still crap... you just need more toilet paper to clean it up.

Lannan Has Good AA Start

The open rotation spot is Tuesday, so it is impossible for him to fill it. With the team self-destructing, does it make sense to force him back into the rotation before the All-Star Break. Now that the Nats are well out of anything except the race for #1 again, it is probably time to take stock of who NEEDS to be in the rotation.

John Lannan probably NEEDS to be in the rotation if he is healthy the Nats expect him to be in the rotation next season. He can usually pitch 7 innings on an economy of pitches. The results aren't always pretty, but he can get the job done. There is growing concern that maybe the Nats should get what they can for Lannan before he regresses to the mean. That time would be now or never.

Livan Hernandez SHOULD be in the rotation, when used properly. Right now, he is not being used properly. One night after the starter was yanked after 4 plus innings, Hernandez was pulled after 92 pitches. WHY?? If Edwin Jackson can roll off 150 pitches in a start, Livan's decaying skill set should be used for at least 120, especially when the bullpen needs it. If Riggleman wants to coddle the position, then this is where Detwiler should be once he is healthy.

Stephen Strasburg. NEEDS... once again, pitch counts are bad. They give management an out. If a pitcher gets hurt on strict limits, "Oh, he would have gotten hurt anyway." Ignorance, damnit. Here is an example. Pitch counts are like miles on a car. Some people drive aggressively and erratically, don't get regular tuneups, and wonder why the head gasket and transmission are shot after 80K. Sure, some pitchers get into a jam. But when your pitcher has cruised through 6 innings on 95 pitches, 75 strikes... those are the easy miles. Yeah, Kerry Wood Kerry Wood Kerry Wood. Look at the game logs, watch the film... there was much more stress on Wood's arm.

Scott Olsen, once healthy, probably SHOULD be elsewhere. He must be a better clubhouse guy than his reputation, or Rizzo would have eaten that arbitration money. The guy can pitch, but unlike John Lannan, has never shown he can do it consistently for any period of time. Right now, Luis Atilano is holding down that spot.

The Nationals will have paid Jason Marquis nearly five million dollars to rehab this season... that's a lot of Flippin Pizza. Is Marquis tradebait? He SHOULD be. Unless he will be contributing to the education of these young pitchers... man, if JD Martin were only a little better. But salary aside, is Jason Marquis even better than JD Martin? With this defense, all bets are off.

Craig Stammen NEEDS to be given a shot to prove he isn't a AAAA pitcher. The bad starts are frequent enough to give pause, but whether or not he is taking his old spot back or Miguel Batista's, he needs to be learning a role with the big club or playing his way off the 40-man.

I think we NEED Wang... no questions asked. But since he seems indefinitely broken, let's scrap him.

Matt Chico is a useful minor league relief plan, and Jordan Zimmermann will be sorely needed come 2011. But you get the idea. 2010 is in the past. Figure out who will contribute in 2011 and focus in them. 76 wins is better than 72, but 76 wins again next season is not as good as 84.

So what will the rotation look like on August 1st? Your guess is as good as mine, but with a couple of expendable parts, maybe they can improve their holes at right field, second base, and, well, all of AAA. Dunn and Willingham are parts also, but let's face the facts that the offense goes nowhere without them.

AA vs. AAA

John Lannan finally received his exile from the Nationals starting rotation. While most deposed pitchers are relegated to AAA, Mike Rizzo chose an alternate path, sending Lannan back to AA Harrisburg.

Usually, when veteran players want to make a rehab assignment, they are sent to the nearest affiliate, often a A or AA club. This seems to be what the Nats are doing with Lannan. A demotion to AAA would have signaled that they didn't think he could get it done. The trip to AA states that they know he can get it done, now go back to the basics and prove it. The lack of premium talent in the Eastern League should help him rebuild his confidence. Right now, he is nibbling too much, falling behind, then chunking an 86 mph 3-1 fastball down the middle. Whether or not there is an underlying injury is aside from the simple fact that John Lannan does not strikeout enough batters to be a great pitcher. He can pitch well, hit spots, and funnel right-handed hitters straight to Zimmerman and Desmond for easy outs. His skill set isn't better than Craig Stammen; in truth, Stammen's ability to not walk batters may provide more upside.

Hopefully this is a short stint in Harrisburg. That would mean the elbow is sound and he has rediscovered the sink to his fastball. In the meantime, he gets to rehab with Ross Detwiler, consult with former coach Randy Tomlin, and work with another soft-tossing lefty trying to find his way back, Chuck James.

Lannan Not Getting It Done

After watching the bullpen implode in the Big Apple Tuesday, I expected the Nats to finally reel into that tell-tale tailspin that better reflects the team they were instead of the the team to which they are aspiring. A four game, forty run sweep in Denver would not have been out of the question. Instead, the Nats put my forecast to shame by drubbing the Rocks 14-6. Big night for most of the hitters in the steady, cold drizzle.

Not such a big night for John Lannan. His K:BB ratio now stands at 0.59. Hitters will only be fooled by the Houdini routine so many times before batting practice commences. Whether or not he is pushing back a more serious injury aside, the numbers are unacceptable. If he needs a stint on the DL, the Nats need to take charge and not let this unravel the way they let Olsen, Stammen, Marquis, and oh yeah, that other Zimmermann, all fight through until major damage was done.

Strasburg can be activated in 3 weeks. Chico was not a disaster in spot duty. JD Martin could be a #4 or 5 guy in a lot of rotations. Chuck James could even come in and put out 5 innings. No reason to set another pitcher back till August or worse.

How Does Lannan's Game Rate

On one hand, he threw just 92 pitches to dig out 6.2 innings of six-hit ball. The only problem is that four of those six hits landed over the fence. Ibanez hit two and Werth hit one, so it isn't like scrubs were teeing off on his stuff, though the Ruiz bomb leaves much to be desired. Sometimes a pitcher can get away with a couple fly balls. Luck was clearly not on Lannan's side last night.









Only Ibanez's fifth inning shot was a no-doubter, and Lannan still recorded 14 of his outs via the ground ball. Clearly, John Lannan was in control until the seventh inning, where despite a low pitch count, things got a little sideways. The homeruns aside, walking Pedro Martinez is inexcusable at any level, which probably meant the gopher balls finally got to him. All in all, this was his best game the past month.

It is disappointing to see Lannan's record where it is. He has pitched much better than this, and it isn't his fault the offense and defense perform with the consistency of a Havana Omelette. But with so many ugly things (Nationals Baseball) to dwell on in a lost season, Lannan gets written in a success story.

Lannan Struggles

It wasn't just one bad outing, but John Lannan has really struggled in his last three starts. Everyone has to remember that despite being labeled "Ace", Lannan is only 24 and is not immune to slumps, dead arm, and mental fatigue. Last season, he averaged 5.87 innings per start. This season, he is up to 6.48. While his overall pitch count per start is only up 2 from 94.7 to 96.6, that still makes a difference when combining it with being on pace for 34 starts and pitching on four days rest for 55% of his starts, as opposed to just 43% last season. These little things do add up, and having been labeled the "Ace", with the added pressure to go deep into games, John Lannan probably just needs a vacation. Throwing the ball all over the place helps nobody.

Right now, he should be scheduled to pitch Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. That probably will not help with any fatigue issues.

What We Have Here is Called a "Winning Streak"

Perfect timing too, as the Strasburg contract drive should be wrapping up soon, yet no word is coming from either side. People would be getting a little anxious if they hadn't been distracted by all that success on the field.

So how have the Nats been able to pull of this run? Their bats have been quite lively, but they were still getting shelled while scoring six runs per game back in May. The key has been timing. The Clippard bases loaded Houdini act is a great example, but check out a couple of examples from last night.

Third inning, bases loaded, two out, and Cody Ross rips a hot shot at 3rd base. Lannan had made great pitch, so Ros hit the ball with some interesting topspin, and the ball comes up on Zimmerman and gets away. Unless the ball is fielded cleanly, this is probably a run against any other corner infielder in the league. Zimmerman recovers, bare hands the ball off the infield grass and flicks it upside down to Dunn to beat Ross by a half step at first. Insane play that saved one run for sure, but the way the Nats have played this year, those always compounded into big innings for the opponent.

Fifth inning, runners on the corners, nobody out, second best hitter in the National League up. This also has the makings of a big inning. Lannan does what he does best, throwing a tempting, well-located first pitch that Ramirez rolls into a 6-4-3, scoring the run, but clearing the bases.

Sixth inning, runners on the corners, one out. Emilio Bonafacio is very difficult to double up, and is clearly looking to slap the ball the other way. One run is imminent, except Lannan decides that it is time to roll out two of his six strikeouts to terminate the rally.

This doesn't include the sterling defense turned in night after night by Nyjer Morgan in center, nor does it include MacDougal getting three full count out to collect the save. The have not improved much; they are just doing a better job of playing to their Pythagorean run differential, which is not worst in the league.

The Marlins had owned the Nats for two seasons, right up until the 8th inning Tuesday. I have a hard time believing everything has suddenly changed, but as long as the players do, run with it.

Masterpiece

Congratulations to John Lannan, who tonight embarassed the Binghamton Mets, pitching his first complete game shutout. In all, Lannan faced just 32 batters, recording just one strikeout and throwing 80 of 106 pitches (holy crap!) for strikes. The only batter who looked even remotely capable of hitting Lannan tonight was Jeff Francouer.

Lannan has become one of the better "stoppers" in baseball, and stands in the class of Zach Greinke and Dan Haren in that his team gives him plenty of opportunities to end losing streaks. Greinke and Haren do it by baffling hitters with electric stuff, denying baserunners, and resembling Hall of Famers. Lannan, on the other hand, does it with... good God. He locates well and gets ground balls. The question is: can any pitcher who refuses to strike out batters succeed long-term? Is there an example?

Sure, a few (21 active players) have been able to keep their spot in the rotation while posting less than 4 SO/9, but to be compared to Carlos Silva or Brian Meadows isn't going to be taken as a compliment. Most other pitchers on the list are either extreme groundball pitchers (Aaron Cook), or Tom Glavine at ages 22 and 41. Strikeouts are important in the homerun era, when Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham patrol almost 50% of the outfield (Nyjer Morgan covers the other 55%). I expect that Lannan's long run without K's is a fluke and he will push his numbers back up around 5 SO/9 next year.

Edit: Actually, John Lannan matches up pretty well with Nick Blackburn, who also continues to succeed in an unconventional manner. Blackburn is a righty, so it can't all be attributed to funky lefty junk.

The Bullpen Nails One Down

Well, John Lannan deserved this one. I know the dozens of people watching at home cringed when Manny emerged from the dugout and signaled for a reliever. It got dicey when Brett Gardner started running wild (stole on a pitchout, not easy) and MacDougal lost A-Rod. But MacDougal trusts his stuff, and he's worked the end game before. Cano had been lighting up the Nats, but he kept railing him with that fastball, and Cano kept stabbing, hoping for a mistake. I was hoping he change his plane, get him chasing a high fastball or one low and away, but he kept putting it knee-high, 4 inches out, 96 mph and tailing away. Finally, Cano did what he was supposed to, rolling the designed double play ball to second.

They get Joba today at lunch. The Nats got their one to avoid the sweep, and can fluster Chamberlain by working longer counts.

Phillies Series Preview

Friday: Ross Detweiler vs JA Happ

Saturday: Shairon Martis vs Cole Hamels

Sunday: John Lannan vs Jamie Moyer

Just as a refresher, JA Happ is the man who came out of the bullpen two Fridays ago and with a runner on struck out Johnson, Zimmerman, and Dunn to force a 12th inning. Despite Hamels being the ace, Happ will likely be the toughest puzzle to solve. Right now, his numbers look great, but when you dig a little deeper, Happ has been a strike out pitcher at every professional level. Since moving to the majors, however, despite what he did to the heart of the Nats order, he has been absorbing more contact all the while posting a .219 BABIP. Has Happ been lucky? Possibly. Do these tactics figure to work as the Phillies move him into the rotation? Probably not. He is a lefty who has shown he can get the Nats big bats out, so it will be interesting to see how Manny sets his lineup tonight. The Phillies are absorbing a big blow losing Brett Myers, so the Nats need to make the most of this opportunity to exact some revenge.

After a shaky start, Hamels looks to be rounding back into frontline form. Another lefty will give Manny more decisions to make with the lineup. The key will be to get his pitch count up early and have him out of the game by the sixth. Happ probably won't go too deep, so getting to their bullpen two straight days will create some opportunities against the likes Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. A third straight lefty will follow Sunday with Jamie Moyer, who has really struggled this year with the Medicare cuts. He has always skated by with low K rates, but now his command is a little off and teams are crushing him.

Getting Jesus Flores back will definitely help, and we know what to expect from the top four slots in the batting order. Willingham should get a decent audition this weekend, and Dunn will probably move to first for a game to get Kearns some swings. Honestly, if Kearns cannot get going against these lefties, it may be time to eat the contract... Rizzo does get tired of watching people.

As far as the Nats starters go, continue throwing strikes! The Phils are going to get their runs with the loaded middle of their lineup, but it's best to avoid big innings by walking guys who a are struggling, like Rollins and Victorino. Once again, the Nats cannot spot their opponent two to four runs in the first inning, as they have been often this season.

The best thing going for the Nats this series is that it cannot possibly be as bad as their last stand against Philly. There are only three opportunities to blow it this time. And what are the odds Martis stays perfect? I vote good... just a hunch.

Lannan Gets the Win...

Nice to see him get on the board. He seems to have developed the Ervin Santana complex, though. Lannan can be an effective pitcher on a lot of clubs, but the way the Nats are constructed right now, he is going to suffer through more of the bad starts than the good. He doesn't strike out enough people and is prone to getting hit hard. This would be OK is the Nats had above average outfield defense. However, their outfield defense is certainly below average, and arguably the worst in the NL when Dunn and Milledge are out there.

Manny really should consider Willie Harris in center with Dukes and Kearns on the corners when Lannan pitches, giving Johnson some injury-prevention time on the bench. It takes a little bite out of the offense, but inspiring a little confidence in a young pitcher is better than trying to score 9 every game.