Top 4 scoring and analysis

5 points for a hit, 2 points for 1 line miss, -1 for 2 line miss, -4 for 3 line or more miss, -5 for missing the field

1 SEEDS: 20 points

ME: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina

FIELD: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina

Analysis: Nailed it, lets move on.

2 SEEDS: 14 points

ME: Oregon, Kentucky, Duke, Florida State

FIELD: Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, Louisville

Analysis: I guess the 3 point victory yesterday outweighed the 27 point loss (that was not that close) earlier in the season.  No matter how you slice it, Oregon is superior.  My only rationalization is that the Cats had to run deeper into the season without Trier than Oregon did without Brooks.  Cardinals were a dead heat with the Seminoles the whole second half, but nose them out in most metrics (RPI, KenPom, Sagarin).  I had FSU way ahead in quality of win.  Neither team was good away from home.

3 SEEDS: 11 points

ME: West Virginia, Arizona, Baylor, Louisville

FIELD: Oregon, Baylor, Florida State, UCLA

Analysis: Not sure what to make of Baylor anymore. End of season slump makes hot, fortuitous Nov/Dec seem like ancient history.  Big 12 is a beast, but which team give coaches nightmares: Baylor or WVU?  Mountaineers could never live up to their advanced metrics, but are still more than capable of making a deep run.

4 SEEDS: 11 points

ME: UCLA, Purdue, Florida, Southern Methodist

FIELD: Purdue, Florida, West Virginia, Butler

Analysis: Committee missed big here, but part of it is justifiable. AAC is not a deep conference and should not be feeling their conference championship game participants are locked into the field, let alone their line.  I think this is a case where they saw 2 teams that split their games, but ignored the actual results (SMU dominated 2 and nearly stole the 3^rd.  I bumped Butler to the 5 assuming SMU’s Sunday result would count.  It did not.  Butler did earn their keep here.

Monday Analysis

Gonzaga’s loss took the shine off their numbers, and they slid behind Villanova for the number 1 overall seed.  The bracket flips around to the East, UNC goes South, Kansas Midwest, and Gonzaga in the West.   Oregon has none of the requisite numbers to displace the Zags, and while Louisville has a great resume, they probably need to win the ACC tourney to make the 1 line.  The biggest surprise is Butler moving up courtesy of its sweep of Nova.  The few bad losses are far enough in the rearview mirror.  Kentucky gets the nod over Florida and Duke for now.  Duke could get hot at any time.  Baylor (Monday’s game in progress) has slipped from fringe 1 seed to 13^th, between UCLA and FSU.

Other surprises:

Virginia is in good shape for a team having lost four in a row.  Oklahoma State’s numbers are still 22^nd in these rankings, but are trending upwards.  Xavier is in total freefall.  I think I had them as a 3 seed at the beginning of the month.  Every year somebody has bad luck and collapses… they seem to be that team this year.

Using the methodology explained a few weeks ago, Locks are filtered out from the Basic Rating, refiltered using the Schedule Strength rating, and then the final slots are picked using the Normalized numbers to factor in "who might actually be trending toward winning an NCAA Tourney Game."

Safe Teams:

Teams Enjoying a Collapsing Bubble:

Make no mistake, there are very few years when teams outside the top 60 RPI are getting serious looks, but the fact people still haven’t given up on TCU, Texas Tech, KSU, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Alabama, Providence, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Clemson, Pitt, Utah… yeah, it’s messy.  Vanderbilt was DOA 3 weeks ago.  Now they are in without anybody running them out.

Here is the biggest issue.  Too many programs have afforded themselves the luxury of scheduling 13 home games in advance of their conference slate.  The numbers are fooled and then all they have to do is ride strength of their conference to the finish line.  This year there are plenty of decent mid-major teams; it’s just that few are in the same conferences together.  Typically the MWC, MVC, Horizon, C-USA, and CAA have 3 or 4 decent bubble teams propping up its softer teams.  This year, either the those teams in the 2-4 slots are weak, or the bottom of the conference has been so bad the top two teams get virtually no credit for 20 point wins.

So these guys are winning just enough to keep those mid-majors at bay, until we start seeing some March upsets:

Maryland, Michigan State, Marquette, Arkansas, Northwestern

I could throw Michigan in there as well, but their computer numbers are actually quite good.  Their RPI had been dragging them down till last week.  Even 2 bad losses will only push them down a line or two.  These 5 are joined by Illinois State and VCU as the two other non-power conference teams that are safe (St. Mary’s and Cincinnati are the other two, with WSU, Dayton, Zags, and SMU projected to grab auto bids).

Here are the teams I think are going to have to play their way in from here:

Virginia Tech, California, Xavier, USC

If I were USC, I would not consider losing any more games.  They still look good from an RPI perspective, but their wins are Charmin soft, and not frequent of late.  Xavier has been discussed, and Cal is one-dimensional and saw their ticket punch snapped away by Dillon Brooks last week.  VT is the safest of these guys and with two jobs in Blacksburg can jump ahead of Miami.

LAST FOUR IN:

Syracuse, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt, Houston

The Orange are probably going to end up staying home… just a gut feeling for last season’s fortune.  They have the wins, but can’t win away from the Dome, and will likely draw a hungry VT or Miami team.  URI is still on life support after beating VCU at home… not all that impressive.  Houston still needs a signature win to hold off a run by one of the first 8 out.  Vanderbilt actually has a 6-4 record against the top 50.  They are like Syracuse, but with a much more difficult path, with both UK and UF this week.  A split may get them in, despite 15 losses.  Likely they will be heading home as well.

* Note: to meet seeding criteria, Vandy was given the last bye and USC was rotated to the play-in game.

FIRST FOUR OUT

Providence

Yeah, a solid argument can be made over any of the last 4 teams, plus USC.  Who would have guessed the Ed Cooley could reload that quickly, but they have two soft games to get to a likely 4^th place finish.  They are likely going to work their way into an 11 seed.  Today, just not enough there.

Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Kansas State

People keep talking up the Pirates, and I like them, but the numbers don’t lie.  At best, they can work into the play-in game.  More than likely, they need a shot at Providence in the BE Tourney to eliminate the competition.  Xavier is vulnerable too.  Wake still has not gotten a signature win, and Louisville could be that one scalp they need to get them committee’s buy in.  14 losses is a lot, but 15 is certain death.  KSU is 2-8 down the stretch, and games against TCU and TTU are not going to save their profile, as both of them are well outside the Top 50 RPI.

NEXT FOUR OUT

Indiana, Georgia, BYU, Illinois

I’ll admit, I wasn’t even tracking Illinois and Vandy until yesterday… they were not even on the bubble… after 3 straight road wins, they are officially the 76^th team.  If any of the following mid majors lose in the conference tourneys, they jump into the line ahead of them:

Princeton, Nevada, Vermont, Arlington, Monmouth, East Tennessee State

If MTSU loses in the C-USA tourney, they will likely still be a 10 seed.  If UNCW loses in the CAA semifinals or finals, they will be a 12 seed or play-in candidate.  Nevada has the best opportunity to play their way to a third at-large caliber bubble team based on SoS, but none of those games will amount to a top 50 win.  Monmouth, Vermont, and Princeton will have their RPI obliterated with a loss… very unlikely, despite favorable computer numbers, any of them get serious consideration.

Updates: Big East, American, and A-10

Big East

Summary: The B-East is back.  Forget Nova, who is still my #1 team in the land (never bought Baylor stock) with UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Kansas rounding out the Top 5.  Look at what Xavier, Creighton, and Butler have been doing to people.  These are not public schools with deep pockets, but private schools with a chip on their shoulder.  Throw in Seton Hall, and overachieving Providence and Marquette teams and they look seven strong.  DePaul may still be lost, but Saint John’s always looks a couple minutes away from putting it together.

What I got wrong: Never underestimate Butler.  Georgetown is probably going to work their way back into contention, but skeptics out there are hoping the whole thing tanks and they rebuild under a new regime.  This has either been the era of underachievement (Ohio, FGCU) or the era of deluded expectations.

Prognosis: Providence hit wall right before the hard games started, tarnishing a possible unexpected bubble run.  I’m keeping the bottom four the same, with the Hoyas narrowly edging out the Johnnies and Friars.  As good as this conference is, somebody has to start taking it on the chin, and I think it will be defensively challenged Marquette. Seton Hall is tall up front, but so reliant upon Angel Delgado, they cannot string together any continuity when he sits with fouls on the road.  I had originally planned on keeping the Top 3 intact, but Xavier has a couple holes that can be exploited, and the Jays are completely unstoppable right now.  That said, the X is built for a deeper NCAA run.  Villanova looks very similar to the 2006-2008 range Florida teams that went back to back.  I won’t commit to that now, but they are certainly in better shape than Kentucky.  UCLA and Kansas have much to bring to the table, but are riskier to even win their conference, let alone get the 1 seed, which Nova is cake walking toward.

BE	Preseason	Realtime
1	Villanova	Villanova
2	Xavier	Creighton
3	Creighton	Xavier
4	Seton Hall	Butler
5	Marquette	Seton Hall
6	Butler	Marquette
7	Georgetown	Georgetown
8	Providence	Providence
9	Saint John's	Saint John's
10	DePaul	DePaul

American Athletic

Summary: Was anyone really surprised when a former Calipari assistant was busted for cheating?  Nah…  I like to break this conference into 3 simple groups.  The HAVEs: Cincinnati, SMU, and Houston.  These teams have already gone out and put together a fair resume, though Houston has the most work to do.  They will need Rob Gray to carry the load, but don’t sleep on Devin Davis returning to add inside presence.  The Bearcats suffocating defense is what coaches have nightmares of, and few teams in the nation have bodies to match up with the Mustangs.  SMU never broke through under Larry Brown.  We will see if Tim Jankovic is a true coaching talent like many of Brown’s protégés, or just another “Coattails Guy.”  The MAYs, Memphis, Temple, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa all have that NIT feel.  I don’t think any of these teams do enough productive things to take enough games off the top 3 to push their computer rankings up.  Memphis stole a win off the Cocks minus Thornwell, which may not be taken into consideration come selection time.  They live and die by Dedric Lawson inside, as they haven’t been able to buy a bucket this year.  Temple’s back to back wins over West Virginia and Florida State in Brooklyn are even more improbable than they sound now, considering they went 8-8 against a mediocre slate of games around it.  Central Florida played a pretty crappy schedule and is relegated to winning the AAC tourney to get a sniff.

What I got wrong: Tulsa- they are not bad, but they lost too much from last year’s Cinderella team to pull it off again.  Memphis hasn’t slid as far as expected.

Prognosis: Cinci and SMU are locks, but Houston can’t slip up and let any of the NIT crowd catch them in the standings.  Losses to the NOTs, USF, ECU, and Tulane, are grounds for automatic disqualification.  Remember when Jeff Lebo was then next big up-and-comer?  I do!  He coached a couple great Tennessee Tech teams… now he is fodder.  Memphis is a play in game candidate if they keep their noses clean. 

AAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
2	Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist
3	Houston	Houston
4	Tulsa	Memphis
5	Connecticut	Tulsa
6	Temple	Temple
7	Central Florida	Central Florida
8	Memphis	Connecticut
9	Tulane	Tulane
10	East Carolina	East Carolina
11	South Florida	South Florida

Atlantic 10

Summary:  I feel like the A10 has let me down, but maybe only because the Big East has overachieved.  These are smaller schools and tighter budgets, but the passion, talent, and leadership is there.  I just don’t know why the wins aren’t happening.  If the tourney started today, Dayton would be 10/11 caliber and URI and VCU would be cannibalizing each other to get to the play-in line.  Davidson scheduled ambitiously, but couldn’t rebound from the UNC and Kansas losses.  The Bonnies will hang around, but a soft schedule dooms their 5 losses to date- make it six, as Richmond sticks the knife in them. 

What I got wrong:  Well, George Mason isn’t finishing last.  In November, I was openly lamenting the fact that they had killed a great program by moving way above their heads.  Dave Paulsen has done great work un-fucking the mess Paul Hewitt made, and at least they won’t be perennial basement dwellers.  Davidson should be better than this.  Fordham, much like DePaul, continues to squander talent and resources.  The middle of this conference is just sludge that is difficult to differentiate.

Prognosis: Saint Joe’s looked like one of the few teams that could crack the bubble, but sans Shivar Newkirk they are lucky to reach the NIT without him.  Saint Louis hosts Duquesne as their only real chance to get a conference win this year, unless a team takes the night off. I like Dan Hurley and the balance with which the Rams (URI) are playing.  It may not be enough to dethrone the Flyers or the other Rams (VCU), but it is enough to win league games over the weak sisters and get to the Dance.  Chris Mooney has Richmond off to a hot start in-league.  They blew the Maryland game and I wrote them off shortly after, yet here they are again.  Bottom line, though, the A-10 is much weaker than expected.  Dayton beat their next best competition to start the season, so they remain the favorite.

A10	Preseason	Realtime
1	Dayton	Dayton
2	Davidson	Rhode Island
3	Rhode Island	Virginia Commonwealth
4	Saint Bonaventure	Richmond
5	Virginia Commonwealth	Saint Bonaventure
6	Richmond	Davidson
7	Fordham	La Salle
8	Saint Joseph's	George Mason
9	George Washington	Massachusetts
10	Massachusetts	Saint Joseph's
11	La Salle	George Washington
12	Duquesne	Fordham
13	Saint Louis	Duquesne
14	George Mason	Saint Louis