2017-2018 Major Conference predictions

I have been a little delinquent starting the previews and preseason bracket.  The FBI sting took some of the wind out of my sails.  I could write for days on that particular topic, but that has nothing to do with the bracket.  I do feel that it would be ignorant not to take the investigation into consideration, as well as other legal implications, so I highlighted teams that I felt were in limbo for this season... not that the NCAA sanctions or postseason bans are imminent or likely (though that is a possibility) but this will affect the longterm mental health of the program.  Maybe not so much the players on the court, but everything that goes into the sausage (recruiting, coaches, practice, travel, media, etc) are going to change for those teams in the immediate future.

Notes:
The PAC12 is a disaster. Arizona, USC, and UCLA looked to be frontrunners, but who knows where the investigation leads, and how China expedites their legal process, which I can only imagine to be like Brokedown Palace.  Cal is bankrupt, Oregon is embroiled in its moral and ethical quandries, and every school north of the 44 degree parallel sucks.  Arizona has the depth to prevail, but my guess is that the investigation breaks Miller before the postseason.  If so, the PAC12 is wide open.

ACC is messy, but the teams currently involved were outside the "lock" status.  Miami and Louisville had tourney potential, but will likely be just impacted enough to tumble to the middle of the ACC standings, with self sanctioning a bargaining chip. Not quite as high on Duke's likely outcome versus the "upside" outcome.  Notre Dame is flying under the radar despite being sound, deep, and experienced.  They have a better shot at an ACC title, while Duke could go all the way if they peak at the right time.

The state of Alabama shot itself in the foot big time.  Auburn looked close to a contender last year, while Alabama pulled a few upsets to remain in the selection discussion until the SEC tourney.  Both are already in the midst of damage control, and I can't see Pearl lasting through Christmas.  Florida and Kentucky are the class of a flat conference again.  Media is high on Missouri because of the Porter effect, but both Fultz and Simmons played for the draft, not necessarily for the postseason.  I can see the Tigers getting off to a fast start and fizzling once NBA scout confirm his draft status. 

The Shockers are jumping to the AAC, which will put a strain on their typical road dominance.  Cinci didn't lose enough to warrant overlooking (SMU did) so I think that chip on their shoulder will be enough to win the league while everyone prematurely puts WSU in the Final Four.  UConn could be the wild card again.

Venue issues will change the fortunes of both Villanova and DePaul.  While the Wildcats are basically playing neutral or road all season, DePaul finally has new digs of their own near campus.  The edge goes to Xavier and Seton Hall to play up that advantage, while DePaul could finally be trending out of the cellar.

Oklahoma State should plummet back to early, while the Dixon effect has taken root at TCU.  Kansas hopefully exhibits a less ambiguous standard toward moral turpitude on the roster.  Over the years, Self has never worn the same stink of other embattled coaches.  I doubt there is any dirt there, but come on, show some discipline.

I have nothing to say about the Big Ten, other than they were very overrated in the seedings last year, and the overall talent seems to have slipped, though little Pitino has a sleeping giant.

Mike Rhodes could keep VCU's stream open, but the Rams have been good for 13 years now.  Typically the bubble bursts on mid-majors and someone has to rebuild from scratch, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.  Ironically, the man who broke their drought, Anthony Grant, will be presiding over continuity at Dayton.  The Bonnies and Rams have the best 5's in the conference, and without much competition, they won't need the depth to win.

Updates: Big East, American, and A-10

Big East

Summary: The B-East is back.  Forget Nova, who is still my #1 team in the land (never bought Baylor stock) with UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Kansas rounding out the Top 5.  Look at what Xavier, Creighton, and Butler have been doing to people.  These are not public schools with deep pockets, but private schools with a chip on their shoulder.  Throw in Seton Hall, and overachieving Providence and Marquette teams and they look seven strong.  DePaul may still be lost, but Saint John’s always looks a couple minutes away from putting it together.

What I got wrong: Never underestimate Butler.  Georgetown is probably going to work their way back into contention, but skeptics out there are hoping the whole thing tanks and they rebuild under a new regime.  This has either been the era of underachievement (Ohio, FGCU) or the era of deluded expectations.

Prognosis: Providence hit wall right before the hard games started, tarnishing a possible unexpected bubble run.  I’m keeping the bottom four the same, with the Hoyas narrowly edging out the Johnnies and Friars.  As good as this conference is, somebody has to start taking it on the chin, and I think it will be defensively challenged Marquette. Seton Hall is tall up front, but so reliant upon Angel Delgado, they cannot string together any continuity when he sits with fouls on the road.  I had originally planned on keeping the Top 3 intact, but Xavier has a couple holes that can be exploited, and the Jays are completely unstoppable right now.  That said, the X is built for a deeper NCAA run.  Villanova looks very similar to the 2006-2008 range Florida teams that went back to back.  I won’t commit to that now, but they are certainly in better shape than Kentucky.  UCLA and Kansas have much to bring to the table, but are riskier to even win their conference, let alone get the 1 seed, which Nova is cake walking toward.

BE	Preseason	Realtime
1	Villanova	Villanova
2	Xavier	Creighton
3	Creighton	Xavier
4	Seton Hall	Butler
5	Marquette	Seton Hall
6	Butler	Marquette
7	Georgetown	Georgetown
8	Providence	Providence
9	Saint John's	Saint John's
10	DePaul	DePaul

American Athletic

Summary: Was anyone really surprised when a former Calipari assistant was busted for cheating?  Nah…  I like to break this conference into 3 simple groups.  The HAVEs: Cincinnati, SMU, and Houston.  These teams have already gone out and put together a fair resume, though Houston has the most work to do.  They will need Rob Gray to carry the load, but don’t sleep on Devin Davis returning to add inside presence.  The Bearcats suffocating defense is what coaches have nightmares of, and few teams in the nation have bodies to match up with the Mustangs.  SMU never broke through under Larry Brown.  We will see if Tim Jankovic is a true coaching talent like many of Brown’s protégés, or just another “Coattails Guy.”  The MAYs, Memphis, Temple, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa all have that NIT feel.  I don’t think any of these teams do enough productive things to take enough games off the top 3 to push their computer rankings up.  Memphis stole a win off the Cocks minus Thornwell, which may not be taken into consideration come selection time.  They live and die by Dedric Lawson inside, as they haven’t been able to buy a bucket this year.  Temple’s back to back wins over West Virginia and Florida State in Brooklyn are even more improbable than they sound now, considering they went 8-8 against a mediocre slate of games around it.  Central Florida played a pretty crappy schedule and is relegated to winning the AAC tourney to get a sniff.

What I got wrong: Tulsa- they are not bad, but they lost too much from last year’s Cinderella team to pull it off again.  Memphis hasn’t slid as far as expected.

Prognosis: Cinci and SMU are locks, but Houston can’t slip up and let any of the NIT crowd catch them in the standings.  Losses to the NOTs, USF, ECU, and Tulane, are grounds for automatic disqualification.  Remember when Jeff Lebo was then next big up-and-comer?  I do!  He coached a couple great Tennessee Tech teams… now he is fodder.  Memphis is a play in game candidate if they keep their noses clean. 

AAC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
2	Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist
3	Houston	Houston
4	Tulsa	Memphis
5	Connecticut	Tulsa
6	Temple	Temple
7	Central Florida	Central Florida
8	Memphis	Connecticut
9	Tulane	Tulane
10	East Carolina	East Carolina
11	South Florida	South Florida

Atlantic 10

Summary:  I feel like the A10 has let me down, but maybe only because the Big East has overachieved.  These are smaller schools and tighter budgets, but the passion, talent, and leadership is there.  I just don’t know why the wins aren’t happening.  If the tourney started today, Dayton would be 10/11 caliber and URI and VCU would be cannibalizing each other to get to the play-in line.  Davidson scheduled ambitiously, but couldn’t rebound from the UNC and Kansas losses.  The Bonnies will hang around, but a soft schedule dooms their 5 losses to date- make it six, as Richmond sticks the knife in them. 

What I got wrong:  Well, George Mason isn’t finishing last.  In November, I was openly lamenting the fact that they had killed a great program by moving way above their heads.  Dave Paulsen has done great work un-fucking the mess Paul Hewitt made, and at least they won’t be perennial basement dwellers.  Davidson should be better than this.  Fordham, much like DePaul, continues to squander talent and resources.  The middle of this conference is just sludge that is difficult to differentiate.

Prognosis: Saint Joe’s looked like one of the few teams that could crack the bubble, but sans Shivar Newkirk they are lucky to reach the NIT without him.  Saint Louis hosts Duquesne as their only real chance to get a conference win this year, unless a team takes the night off. I like Dan Hurley and the balance with which the Rams (URI) are playing.  It may not be enough to dethrone the Flyers or the other Rams (VCU), but it is enough to win league games over the weak sisters and get to the Dance.  Chris Mooney has Richmond off to a hot start in-league.  They blew the Maryland game and I wrote them off shortly after, yet here they are again.  Bottom line, though, the A-10 is much weaker than expected.  Dayton beat their next best competition to start the season, so they remain the favorite.

A10	Preseason	Realtime
1	Dayton	Dayton
2	Davidson	Rhode Island
3	Rhode Island	Virginia Commonwealth
4	Saint Bonaventure	Richmond
5	Virginia Commonwealth	Saint Bonaventure
6	Richmond	Davidson
7	Fordham	La Salle
8	Saint Joseph's	George Mason
9	George Washington	Massachusetts
10	Massachusetts	Saint Joseph's
11	La Salle	George Washington
12	Duquesne	Fordham
13	Saint Louis	Duquesne
14	George Mason	Saint Louis

2017 Predictions: The Majors

Yes!  The “Major” conferences.  These are the bread and butter to forecasting a good bracket.  The powers that be make it impossible to properly rate the BCS conference teams, watching middling teams get way over-seeded or included, while strong teams from this group regularly get the shaft.  It frustrates me to no end when I am championing two potential Cinderella teams and they get pitted against each in the 7-10 game, all the while boasting the profile of a 4-5 seed.  Meanwhile, some pluck BCS bubble team sneaks into their conference semifinals and is suddenly anointed champion of the hour.

Most of you will probably get a chuckle out of the likes of Texas San Antonio playing in a major conference, or being put in the same breath as defending champion Villanova.  However, even the MAC and Conference USA have the talent to be multi-bid leagues with a couple breaks.

The Big East should continue to roll deeper than most of the BCS conferences.  Nova is still deep, Xavier keeps getting better, and Seton Hall has recovered from 2 decades of apathy in a basketball-first environment.  If Greg McDermott has turned the corner in Omaha, this conference really has 4 teams looking at top 4 seeds.  Early results show that Marquette, Butler and Providence should compete well despite personnel losses.  DePaul and Saint John’s will continue to suck… more on those teams in another post.

That also brings me to a point.  Very few of my preseason previews will mention specific players.  And isn’t that I don’t or don’t care.  25 years of college basketball obsession have proven a few things.  The first is that players win games.  Supremely talented shooters, ball-handlers, and big men make plays that affect the outcomes of games.  However, good coaching wins championships.  Somebody who is thinking 5 steps ahead to make sure he is getting the most of each position on floor night after night is the biggest difference between the NIT and NCAA tourney for many of these teams.  When it comes down to projecting standings, players come, go, get hurt, get suspended.  A good coach deals with it all and adjusts.  On the list of NCAA tournament winning coaches, there are very few “interlopers”.  Kevin Ollie has yet to prove himself (and say what you want about these guys’ ethics… discussion for another time), but Jim Harrick is the only one who stands out in the last 30 years as being “wtf, how did he win?”  Buying into a coach’s system, process and character goes further than guess which of these 3, 4, and 5 star recruits will pan out.

The Atlantic 10 is the sleeping giant.  Because of the lack of football exposure, every year people ask me, “where is Saint Bonaventure?”  Dayton is back and Archie Miller should get them much deeper into the tournament.  Davidson has made the adjustment from the Southern Conference and continue to find talent other major programs pass on. I keep waiting for Richmond to turn the corner, but something seems missing from his Princeton-style attack.  VCU will probably take a step back from elite to just really good.  Shaka Smart’s coattails are only so long, and eventually will run out.  The real wild cards are the other Rams (URI) and the Bonnies.  Both look ready to make some noise this year.  So many schools in this conference in great recruiting areas so it is hard to imagine them not fielding good teams.

In the AAC, Southern Methodist has broken my heart enough the last couple years.  Larry Brown’s name was enough to get people interested in the program after a history of ineptitude.  They should be a Sweet 16 team this year.  Cincinnati is not going away, but Memphis may… not sure I buy this Tubby Smith experiment.  This may only be a 2 bid league unless somebody emerges from the Houston/Tulsa/UConn/Temple bubble.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have reloaded… Saint Mary’s was violently screwed on selection Sunday and have a chip on their shoulder.  BYU always looks great on the court, then you blink and they have 9 losses.  Pepperdine may have the horse to sneak past them in the standings, but not enough to threaten the Top Dogs.  Santa Clara will slow it down this year and be a dark horse by the end of the season.

UNLV is a hot mess right now and I can’t that getting fixed before February.  Nevada has the depth to push ahead of San Diego State, and both are solid at-large teams.  Picking 3 through 7 here is a crapshoot, but New Mexico boasts the best home court advantage that will play out in the regular season.  There is a lot of talent in this conference, and is a year away from maybe getting 4-5 teams in.

Conference USA is full of teams that seem to covet the glory of major conference football, but have so little pedigree nobody is buying in yet.  MTSU is the best of the bunch, but the Monarchs and Blazers bring some tourney experience to the table.  Marshall and Charlotte will push the pace all season long, but neither are equipped to win regularly on the road (shoot, play D).

The MVC misses Creighton.  Northern Iowa is trying to play foil to the Shockers’ dominance, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare.  Barry Hinson looks to have SIU on the right track, and Illinois State is a solid 20 win team, but the lack of depth will keep this conference low in the RPI discussion, and anyone not named Gregg Marshall should expect to be forced to win Arch Madness to secure a bid in the Dance.

Buffalo (the house Reggie Witherspoon built) has been solid for the last 5+ years, but the test will be whether it can be sustained. Ohio and Toledo are fortunately n opposite sides of the conference as to not cannibalize each other.  Keno Davis will bring some excitement to Central Michigan.  The conference will need a few signature wins early to get into the 2 bid discussion.