2017-2018 Mid-Major Conference Previews

There is not a slight between these 8 conferences and the 8 referenced under “One-Bid” (coming soon) other than I feel that the 2-3 best teams in these conferences are more likely to be a factor on the bubble come February.

The Mountain West is still several seasons away from being a legitimate multi-bid threat again.  It’s a shame, because the old WAC was home to some of the nation’s most exciting basketball.  When the MWC broke away, they took the heart of the conference.  It has fought small battles of attrition to football, but it looks to be taking its toll.  New Mexico and UNLV have been staggering aimlessly for several seasons.  Wyoming, Fresno St and Utah St are consistently unable to break through. Nevada was a very fringy Bubble team last year (likely “Next Four Out” had they not claimed an auto bid). San Diego State could go either way.  I’ve never been a fan of the coaching coattails, but the word out is that Dutcher has been doing the grunt work here for much more of their run than I would have believed.  Eustachy has the Rams pointed in the right direction, but they are not deep at all.  The conference just doesn’t draw from the Big 12/PAC 12 reservoir the way it used to.

The Missouri Valley has reloaded about as well as it could from the Creighton and Wichita defections.  The conference had survived the losses of Tulsa, Cincinnati, Louisville before that.  The difference is that those are larger cities that have their own sports world.  Valpo falls into mould of the other schools (ISU, ISU, SIU, NIU, MSU), with great tradition, but not much happening in a small town to sell recruits on MVC over Big East, AAC, or even Big Ten.  The MVC needs a winner in Loyola to pipeline talent back into the conference.  The play deliberately, and with the Redbirds and Panthers struggling, there isn’t much resistance.  Bradley will be a shocker, as they have been left for dead for several seasons.  Not seeing much more than an auto bid here, unless somebody pulls together 30 wins.

Not much to say about the West Coast Conference.  Gonzaga reloaded, but St. Mary’s has the NBA talent this year, and should be able to take 2 of 3.  BYU will be exciting until Emery has a meltdown on the road and costs them a couple winnable games.  Too much turnover in the conference the last 2 years to generate many other threats.  Santa Clara is building a solid system and base, but they need way more talent to crack the top 3.

The CAA was a potential multi-bid league with UNCW and Charleston playing tight most of the way, but Charleston fizzled, now the Seahawks have graduated most of their diamonds in the rough.  Elon and Towson are competent enough to make a run. The Tribe lost some of their underrated talent that made Williamsburg a very difficult place to win the last few years.

The loss of Valpo from the Horizon makes this a very unappealing slate of teams.  The Norse are on the map in the wake of Alec Peters late season injury, but it is unlikely Oakland craps the bed again like they did last season.  The Phoenix never figured out how to score at that tempo, and that doesn’t figure to change this season.

The Ivy is a tale of 4 Haves and 4 Have Nots.  Any one of the top 4 can steal the auto bid, but I’m not sure anybody is going to catch the scheduling breaks to be at-large worthy.  Dartmouth, Brown, and Cornell are several steps down from the top four, and there is a pretty large break between the Tigers and Lions.  Princeton has lost the most from last year, though it still can run away with this.  My money would be on the FBS-level talent at Harvard, or the depth at Yale, but never rule out the ability of Penn to spread and shoot.

Monmouth’s stranglehold on the Little MAAC (though what’s it say about the MAC that they rate below here) is over with nary an NCAA bid.  Manhattan has assembled a formidable team.  Iona has been solid for years and are not going away, though Fairfield could be the sleeper here.  Also, never count Siena out in the MAAC tourney.

Conference USA is where things typically go to die, and there isn’t much coming out this year.  ODU will bore you to death, and both Charlotte and Marshall will ignore defensive obligations, making MTSU the favorite again.  UTEP and LaTech will win 20 games and be thorns in their side.  The most interesting pieces are North Texas and UTSA, both of whom can make an unexpected run up a weak conference… the Hilltoppers dream about what might have been, though the concern to me is how Stansbury lined that deal up.

Final Results for Conference Predictions

Back in November, breakdowns and prediction tables were offered for each of the 32 conferences.  At the end of December, we covered what was learned and updated those forecasts.  Now that the season is over, it’s time to see how we did!

Each conference will be scored individually based on 3 sets criteria.  I tried to keep the formula simple to keep from confusing Excel too much.  The first set is how the preseason picks faired against the final results.  10 points awarded for getting the standing position correct, 5 point for missing by 1 position, 2 points for missing by 2 positions, and -5 for anything else.  Similar scoring is done on the midseason, or Realtime, updates, reduced to 5, 3, 1, and -5.  Finally, 5 bonus points are awarded for every block of 3 consecutive correct picks, 10 points for a block of 5, and 20 points for a block of 8.

MVC	Preseason	Realtime	Final	P-PTS	R-PTS	Total
1	Wichita State	Wichita State	Wichita State	10	5	15
2	Northern Iowa	Illinois State	Illinois State	2	5	7
3	Southern Illinois	Loyola	Southern Illinois	10	-5	5
4	Illinois State	Evansville	Northern Iowa	2	1	3
5	Missouri State	Missouri State	Loyola	-5	1	-4
6	Evansville	Northern Iowa	Missouri State	5	3	8
7	Indiana State	Southern Illinois	Bradley	5	-5	0
8	Bradley	Indiana State	Evansville	2	-5	-3
9	Drake	Drake	Drake	10	5	15
10	Loyola	Bradley	Indiana State	-5	1	-4
			Bonus	0		42

Wichita State and Drake were the only two teams I nailed.  Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa were all over the place, but ended up both back up near the top of the table (which more illustrates how weak the MVC was this year.  I had a big preseason whiff on Loyola, and then they fizzled down the stretch.  After the Sycamores upset Butler, they hit the wall hard.  No bonus points here.

I suspect that there will be one or two conferences that go into triple digits, and one or two that fall below 20.  Most will be right around 50.

Thoughts?

Updates: Missouri Valley and Conference USA

Missouri Valley

Summary: The MVC, like the MAC, has fallen on hard times.  Unlike the MAC, however, they still have some firepower at the top.  The Shockers are not going away.  Gregg keeps reloading year after year.  This year, they really needed to beat MSU, which is looking like a missed opportunity closing out Nassau with the OKST and Louisville losses.  They cannot really improve their seeding much above 6 unless they run the table.  Porter Moser has restored some semblance of hope at Loyola.  Their dedication to pace is very disruptive, but they are not quite over the hump yet.  Illinois State has the best shot at the second bid, but they have not beaten anybody yet.  They need a bid win over WSU.  Everyone else has been a varying degree of disappointment, with Drake napalming the Ray Giocoletti dumpster fire to kick off the conference slate.  The Sycamores have three OT losses to go along with a couple other 2 and 3 point losses, balancing out their Butler upset.

What I got wrong: Wyatt Lohaus’ ankle has sabotaged a return run to the tournament for Northern Iowa.  Obviously I missed heavily on Loyola, but I also thought the Salukis were much closer to contention.

Prognosis: The conference is weak enough, though, that anybody outside of Bradley and Drake can win Arch Madness as long as they can knock off the Shockers.  Given the height advantage, balance of shot takers, and general efficiency, I do not see that happening with this group.  Ronnie Rousseau’s absence may take the Bears out of contention as well, allowing the disappointing teams a chance to steal some wins. If the Redbirds make the Arch Madness Final, they are probably in, as long as they hang around 7 losses or so.

MVC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Wichita State	Wichita State
2	Northern Iowa	Illinois State
3	Southern Illinois	Loyola
4	Illinois State	Evansville
5	Missouri State	Missouri State
6	Evansville	Northern Iowa
7	Indiana State	Southern Illinois
8	Bradley	Indiana State
9	Drake	Drake
10	Loyola	Bradley

Conference USA

Summary: The conference is still pretty weak, but at least the top 4 are all capable of getting hot, and the Raiders are going to make any 5-7 seed sweat, and are certainly capable of grabbing the 12 seed play-in slot if they fail to get the automatic bid.  They continue to get wins despite giving plenty of minutes to frosh Tyrik Dixon at the point.  Jeff Jones has Old Dominion in good shape.  Getting the Stith brothers to defect has been a coup.  UAB is experiencing some unexpected growing pains.  I’d like to toot my own horn for being hot on Marshall when most had them middle of the conference.  They are electric, but may have missed the opportunities needed to get on the bubble by beating Cincinnati and/or Pittsburgh.  LA Tech is a pig with lipstick... beating up on sub 300 teams and losing to everyone else.  Rice, on the other hand, should stick with the upper half, possessing the ability to score efficiently; they need a little end of game magic.  The rest of this conference is so gawd awful that it will really mask the true talent levels of the Top 4.

What I got wrong: UAB is sloppy.  Charlotte can shoot, but they are missing what JC Washington brings to the table inside.  Mark Price will continue to make this team over with small ball, but they are a year away, at least.   UTEP and Southern Miss are amongst the worst teams in countries, UTEP without excuse.  Rick Stansbury is getting some mileage out of a senior heavy team, and the Hilltoppers are popping after a slow start.

Prognosis: Middle Tennessee remains out front, with ODU and Marshall jockeying for second.  Rice, WKU, UAB, and Louisiana Tech wrap up the top half.  The Florida schools have been abysmal and with North Texas, Texas-San Antonio, and Texas El Paso doing the state name no favors.  ODU and Marshall have the ability to make this a multi-bid league, but MTSU has to be, like, 16-2 in conference.  Not a lot of room for error.

USA	Preseason	Realtime
1	Middle Tennessee State	Middle Tennessee State
2	Old Dominion	Old Dominion
3	UAB	Marshall
4	Marshall	Rice
5	Charlotte	Western Kentucky
6	Texas El Paso	UAB
7	Rice	Louisiana Tech
8	Florida International	Charlotte
9	Louisiana Tech	Florida International
10	North Texas	North Texas
11	Southern Mississippi	Texas San Antonio
12	Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic
13	Western Kentucky	Southern Mississippi
14	Texas San Antonio	Texas El Paso

2017 Predictions: The Majors

Yes!  The “Major” conferences.  These are the bread and butter to forecasting a good bracket.  The powers that be make it impossible to properly rate the BCS conference teams, watching middling teams get way over-seeded or included, while strong teams from this group regularly get the shaft.  It frustrates me to no end when I am championing two potential Cinderella teams and they get pitted against each in the 7-10 game, all the while boasting the profile of a 4-5 seed.  Meanwhile, some pluck BCS bubble team sneaks into their conference semifinals and is suddenly anointed champion of the hour.

Most of you will probably get a chuckle out of the likes of Texas San Antonio playing in a major conference, or being put in the same breath as defending champion Villanova.  However, even the MAC and Conference USA have the talent to be multi-bid leagues with a couple breaks.

The Big East should continue to roll deeper than most of the BCS conferences.  Nova is still deep, Xavier keeps getting better, and Seton Hall has recovered from 2 decades of apathy in a basketball-first environment.  If Greg McDermott has turned the corner in Omaha, this conference really has 4 teams looking at top 4 seeds.  Early results show that Marquette, Butler and Providence should compete well despite personnel losses.  DePaul and Saint John’s will continue to suck… more on those teams in another post.

That also brings me to a point.  Very few of my preseason previews will mention specific players.  And isn’t that I don’t or don’t care.  25 years of college basketball obsession have proven a few things.  The first is that players win games.  Supremely talented shooters, ball-handlers, and big men make plays that affect the outcomes of games.  However, good coaching wins championships.  Somebody who is thinking 5 steps ahead to make sure he is getting the most of each position on floor night after night is the biggest difference between the NIT and NCAA tourney for many of these teams.  When it comes down to projecting standings, players come, go, get hurt, get suspended.  A good coach deals with it all and adjusts.  On the list of NCAA tournament winning coaches, there are very few “interlopers”.  Kevin Ollie has yet to prove himself (and say what you want about these guys’ ethics… discussion for another time), but Jim Harrick is the only one who stands out in the last 30 years as being “wtf, how did he win?”  Buying into a coach’s system, process and character goes further than guess which of these 3, 4, and 5 star recruits will pan out.

The Atlantic 10 is the sleeping giant.  Because of the lack of football exposure, every year people ask me, “where is Saint Bonaventure?”  Dayton is back and Archie Miller should get them much deeper into the tournament.  Davidson has made the adjustment from the Southern Conference and continue to find talent other major programs pass on. I keep waiting for Richmond to turn the corner, but something seems missing from his Princeton-style attack.  VCU will probably take a step back from elite to just really good.  Shaka Smart’s coattails are only so long, and eventually will run out.  The real wild cards are the other Rams (URI) and the Bonnies.  Both look ready to make some noise this year.  So many schools in this conference in great recruiting areas so it is hard to imagine them not fielding good teams.

In the AAC, Southern Methodist has broken my heart enough the last couple years.  Larry Brown’s name was enough to get people interested in the program after a history of ineptitude.  They should be a Sweet 16 team this year.  Cincinnati is not going away, but Memphis may… not sure I buy this Tubby Smith experiment.  This may only be a 2 bid league unless somebody emerges from the Houston/Tulsa/UConn/Temple bubble.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have reloaded… Saint Mary’s was violently screwed on selection Sunday and have a chip on their shoulder.  BYU always looks great on the court, then you blink and they have 9 losses.  Pepperdine may have the horse to sneak past them in the standings, but not enough to threaten the Top Dogs.  Santa Clara will slow it down this year and be a dark horse by the end of the season.

UNLV is a hot mess right now and I can’t that getting fixed before February.  Nevada has the depth to push ahead of San Diego State, and both are solid at-large teams.  Picking 3 through 7 here is a crapshoot, but New Mexico boasts the best home court advantage that will play out in the regular season.  There is a lot of talent in this conference, and is a year away from maybe getting 4-5 teams in.

Conference USA is full of teams that seem to covet the glory of major conference football, but have so little pedigree nobody is buying in yet.  MTSU is the best of the bunch, but the Monarchs and Blazers bring some tourney experience to the table.  Marshall and Charlotte will push the pace all season long, but neither are equipped to win regularly on the road (shoot, play D).

The MVC misses Creighton.  Northern Iowa is trying to play foil to the Shockers’ dominance, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare.  Barry Hinson looks to have SIU on the right track, and Illinois State is a solid 20 win team, but the lack of depth will keep this conference low in the RPI discussion, and anyone not named Gregg Marshall should expect to be forced to win Arch Madness to secure a bid in the Dance.

Buffalo (the house Reggie Witherspoon built) has been solid for the last 5+ years, but the test will be whether it can be sustained. Ohio and Toledo are fortunately n opposite sides of the conference as to not cannibalize each other.  Keno Davis will bring some excitement to Central Michigan.  The conference will need a few signature wins early to get into the 2 bid discussion.