Missouri Valley
Summary: The MVC, like the MAC, has fallen on hard
times. Unlike the MAC, however, they
still have some firepower at the top.
The Shockers are not going away.
Gregg keeps reloading year after year.
This year, they really needed to beat MSU, which is looking like a
missed opportunity closing out Nassau with the OKST and Louisville losses. They cannot really improve their seeding much
above 6 unless they run the table.
Porter Moser has restored some semblance of hope at Loyola. Their dedication to pace is very disruptive,
but they are not quite over the hump yet.
Illinois State has the best shot at the second bid, but they have not
beaten anybody yet. They need a bid win
over WSU. Everyone else has been a
varying degree of disappointment, with Drake napalming the Ray Giocoletti
dumpster fire to kick off the conference slate.
The Sycamores have three OT losses to go along with a couple other 2 and
3 point losses, balancing out their Butler upset.
What I got wrong: Wyatt Lohaus’ ankle has sabotaged a return
run to the tournament for Northern Iowa.
Obviously I missed heavily on Loyola, but I also thought the Salukis
were much closer to contention.
Prognosis: The conference is weak enough, though, that
anybody outside of Bradley and Drake can win Arch Madness as long as they can
knock off the Shockers. Given the height
advantage, balance of shot takers, and general efficiency, I do not see that
happening with this group. Ronnie
Rousseau’s absence may take the Bears out of contention as well, allowing
the disappointing teams a chance to steal some wins. If the Redbirds make the
Arch Madness Final, they are probably in, as long as they hang around 7 losses
or so.
MVC
|
Preseason
|
Realtime
|
1
|
Wichita
State
|
Wichita
State
|
2
|
Northern
Iowa
|
Illinois
State
|
3
|
Southern
Illinois
|
Loyola
|
4
|
Illinois
State
|
Evansville
|
5
|
Missouri
State
|
Missouri
State
|
6
|
Evansville
|
Northern
Iowa
|
7
|
Indiana
State
|
Southern
Illinois
|
8
|
Bradley
|
Indiana
State
|
9
|
Drake
|
Drake
|
10
|
Loyola
|
Bradley
|
Conference USA
Summary: The conference is still pretty weak, but at least
the top 4 are all capable of getting hot, and the Raiders are going to make any
5-7 seed sweat, and are certainly capable of grabbing the 12 seed play-in slot
if they fail to get the automatic bid.
They continue to get wins despite giving plenty of minutes to frosh
Tyrik Dixon at the point. Jeff Jones has
Old Dominion in good shape. Getting the
Stith brothers to defect has been a coup.
UAB is experiencing some unexpected growing pains. I’d like to toot my own horn for being hot on
Marshall when most had them middle of the conference. They are electric, but may have missed the
opportunities needed to get on the bubble by beating Cincinnati and/or
Pittsburgh. LA Tech is a pig with
lipstick... beating up on sub 300 teams and losing to everyone else. Rice, on the other hand, should stick with
the upper half, possessing the ability to score efficiently; they need a little
end of game magic. The rest of this
conference is so gawd awful that it will really mask the true talent levels of
the Top 4.
What I got wrong: UAB is sloppy. Charlotte can shoot, but they are missing
what JC Washington brings to the table inside.
Mark Price will continue to make this team over with small ball, but
they are a year away, at least. UTEP
and Southern Miss are amongst the worst teams in countries, UTEP without excuse. Rick Stansbury is getting some
mileage out of a senior heavy team, and the Hilltoppers are popping after a
slow start.
Prognosis: Middle Tennessee remains out front, with ODU and
Marshall jockeying for second. Rice,
WKU, UAB, and Louisiana Tech wrap up the top half. The Florida schools have been abysmal and
with North Texas, Texas-San Antonio, and Texas El Paso doing the state name no
favors. ODU and Marshall have the
ability to make this a multi-bid league, but MTSU has to be, like, 16-2 in
conference. Not a lot of room for error.
USA
|
Preseason
|
Realtime
|
1
|
Middle
Tennessee State
|
Middle
Tennessee State
|
2
|
Old
Dominion
|
Old
Dominion
|
3
|
UAB
|
Marshall
|
4
|
Marshall
|
Rice
|
5
|
Charlotte
|
Western
Kentucky
|
6
|
Texas
El Paso
|
UAB
|
7
|
Rice
|
Louisiana
Tech
|
8
|
Florida
International
|
Charlotte
|
9
|
Louisiana
Tech
|
Florida
International
|
10
|
North
Texas
|
North
Texas
|
11
|
Southern
Mississippi
|
Texas
San Antonio
|
12
|
Florida
Atlantic
|
Florida
Atlantic
|
13
|
Western
Kentucky
|
Southern
Mississippi
|
14
|
Texas
San Antonio
|
Texas
El Paso
|
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