Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here. I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:
Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig. Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments. Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry. That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern. I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.
The WAC is up for grabs. UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3. Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult. The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools. This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.
The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change. Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way. Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.
The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not. Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott.
This is the worst Big Sky I can remember. NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again. There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back. I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.
Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them. UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.
Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again. Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.
Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team. I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.
Showing posts with label Southern Conference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southern Conference. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Updates: Southern and Sun Belt
Southern
Summary: Chattanooga… East Tennessee State… everybody else. Mercer went out and played a fair schedule,
but has nothing to show for it. Their
plodding tactics play better in conference against weaker teams, but probably
can’t shake the top two. Furman has
played teams pretty close and stolen a few.
If they had been able to topple Winthrop and Asheville, I’d be more
convinced they will hang. Greensboro is
also middle of the pack. I have been
hoping Duggar Baucom’s tactics would work somewhere, but so far the results
have been too erratic to trust.
What I got wrong: Samford and Furman are better than
Mercer. Everything else looks to be
slotted correctly, but ETSU is much better than expected.
Prognosis: Not many surprises here. The conference as whole plays pretty slow
except The Citadel, so there are a lot of controlled, lower scoring games. These are usually a bettors dream, but I
haven’t been able to make heads or tails out of league play yet. I’m not convinced Chattanooga can run away
with this one, but they should be less prone to dropping games on the road than
ETSU, as their pressure style picks up more ticky tack fouls in opposing
gyms. The bottom three teams are not
going anywhere fast, but the middle 5 spots are up for grabs. Wofford appears to be the weakest of that
group, but can clearly keep games close through good foul shooting despite a
sieve for defense.
|
SC
|
Preseason
|
Realtime
|
|
1
|
Chattanooga
|
Chattanooga
|
|
2
|
East
Tennessee State
|
East
Tennessee State
|
|
3
|
Mercer
|
Samford
|
|
4
|
UNC
Greensboro
|
Furman
|
|
5
|
Furman
|
UNC
Greensboro
|
|
6
|
Wofford
|
Mercer
|
|
7
|
Samford
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Wofford
|
|
8
|
The
Citadel
|
The
Citadel
|
|
9
|
Virginia
Military
|
Virginia
Military
|
|
10
|
Western
Carolina
|
Western
Carolina
|
Sun Belt
Summary: For those of you not paying attention, get to know
the Texas-Arlington Mavericks now, so you can take advantage of a probable
first round upset in your pool. Scott
Cross will take on all challengers and plays a good inside game that is often
overlooked in this age of tempo and 3’s.
After missing their first 3 chances to lock up quality wins, they
dropped Texas and St. Mary’s. Little
Rock has fallen back to the pack after last year’s run, and the only team even
close right now is Lafayette, though Arkansas State holds a win over them as
well as the upset at Georgetown and knocking of Chattanooga and Lehigh. Georgia Southern is strong enough to push the
conference, but Arlington is a solid 13/14 seed, and everyone else is 15/16.
What I got wrong: A
little bit of everything. Arkansas State
is good, Monroe is not. I very much
overestimated Coastal Carolina’s ability to play up to the level of competition
in the Sun Belt, but Cliff Ellis scheduled ambitiously… they just couldn’t beat
any of the better teams.
Prognosis: Georgia
Southern catches Arkansas State and Lafayette.
Coastal Carolina rebounds to the middle of the pack. The bottom half of the conference continues
to fling up enough bricks to get into a masonry union.
Arlington walks with the regular season title and doesn’t really get
challenged in the SB tourney as ASU and ULL stop overachieving.
|
SB
|
Preseason
|
Realtime
|
|
1
|
Arlington
|
Arlington
|
|
2
|
Georgia
Southern
|
Georgia
Southern
|
|
3
|
Coastal
Carolina
|
Lafayette
|
|
4
|
Georgia
State
|
Arkansas
State
|
|
5
|
Little
Rock
|
Little
Rock
|
|
6
|
Lafayette
|
Georgia
State
|
|
7
|
Monroe
|
Coastal
Carolina
|
|
8
|
South
Alabama
|
South
Alabama
|
|
9
|
Texas
State
|
Texas
State
|
|
10
|
Appalachian
State
|
Troy
|
|
11
|
Troy
|
Monroe
|
|
12
|
Arkansas
State
|
Appalachian
State
|
Labels:
Chattanooga,
Southern Conference,
Sun Belt,
UT-Arlington
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