Showing posts with label Southern Conference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southern Conference. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:


Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Updates: Southern and Sun Belt

Southern
Summary: Chattanooga… East Tennessee State… everybody else.  Mercer went out and played a fair schedule, but has nothing to show for it.  Their plodding tactics play better in conference against weaker teams, but probably can’t shake the top two.  Furman has played teams pretty close and stolen a few.  If they had been able to topple Winthrop and Asheville, I’d be more convinced they will hang.  Greensboro is also middle of the pack.  I have been hoping Duggar Baucom’s tactics would work somewhere, but so far the results have been too erratic to trust.

What I got wrong: Samford and Furman are better than Mercer.  Everything else looks to be slotted correctly, but ETSU is much better than expected.

Prognosis: Not many surprises here.  The conference as whole plays pretty slow except The Citadel, so there are a lot of controlled, lower scoring games.  These are usually a bettors dream, but I haven’t been able to make heads or tails out of league play yet.  I’m not convinced Chattanooga can run away with this one, but they should be less prone to dropping games on the road than ETSU, as their pressure style picks up more ticky tack fouls in opposing gyms.  The bottom three teams are not going anywhere fast, but the middle 5 spots are up for grabs.  Wofford appears to be the weakest of that group, but can clearly keep games close through good foul shooting despite a sieve for defense.

SC
Preseason
Realtime
1
Chattanooga
Chattanooga
2
East Tennessee State
East Tennessee State
3
Mercer
Samford
4
UNC Greensboro
Furman
5
Furman
UNC Greensboro
6
Wofford
Mercer
7
Samford
Wofford
8
The Citadel
The Citadel
9
Virginia Military
Virginia Military
10
Western Carolina
Western Carolina

Sun Belt
Summary: For those of you not paying attention, get to know the Texas-Arlington Mavericks now, so you can take advantage of a probable first round upset in your pool.  Scott Cross will take on all challengers and plays a good inside game that is often overlooked in this age of tempo and 3’s.  After missing their first 3 chances to lock up quality wins, they dropped Texas and St. Mary’s.  Little Rock has fallen back to the pack after last year’s run, and the only team even close right now is Lafayette, though Arkansas State holds a win over them as well as the upset at Georgetown and knocking of Chattanooga and Lehigh.  Georgia Southern is strong enough to push the conference, but Arlington is a solid 13/14 seed, and everyone else is 15/16.

What I got wrong:  A little bit of everything.  Arkansas State is good, Monroe is not.  I very much overestimated Coastal Carolina’s ability to play up to the level of competition in the Sun Belt, but Cliff Ellis scheduled ambitiously… they just couldn’t beat any of the better teams.

Prognosis:  Georgia Southern catches Arkansas State and Lafayette.  Coastal Carolina rebounds to the middle of the pack.  The bottom half of the conference continues to fling up enough bricks to get into a masonry union.  Arlington walks with the regular season title and doesn’t really get challenged in the SB tourney as ASU and ULL stop overachieving.

SB
Preseason
Realtime
1
Arlington
Arlington
2
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern
3
Coastal Carolina
Lafayette
4
Georgia State
Arkansas State
5
Little Rock
Little Rock
6
Lafayette
Georgia State
7
Monroe
Coastal Carolina
8
South Alabama
South Alabama
9
Texas State
Texas State
10
Appalachian State
Troy
11
Troy
Monroe
12
Arkansas State
Appalachian State