One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:

Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Updates: Patriot and Northeast Leagues

Patriot League

Summary: I think that it would be unfair to write off sucks to BU after just beating Lehigh, but I do not think they are going to finish in the same class as the Hawks or Bison.  Both Lehigh and Bucknell own Top 100 wins and played fair schedules.  I would say Lehigh has been a little less consistent, but they can shoot the lights out when they need to.  Tim Kempton is the best player in the conference.  It should be enough to ride to a 14/15 seed.  Bucknell has gotten much improved performance across the board and don’t have too many weaknesses.

What I got wrong: Bucknell, obviously. Colgate and American have been really bad.  There are no injury excuses here either, just teams that lack fundamentals. This does not bode well for Mike Brennan as his programs nosedives from the Jeff Jones days.  Lafayette wasn’t expected to be good, but also not this bad either.  Army, on the other hand, has been sneaky decent so far.  Sure, they just dropped games to the conference heavyweights, but held their own against 5 Top100 teams (winning zero).  If not for that brutal loss to Central Arkansas, this would be a great start.

Prognosis: Lehigh and Bucknell all the way.  Holy Cross joins BU and Army as the other .500+ clubs that could wreak havoc come tourney time.  I don’t see much else from the bottom half.

PAT Preseason Realtime 1 Lehigh Lehigh 2 Boston University Bucknell 3 Colgate Boston University 4 American Army 5 Bucknell Holy Cross 6 Holy Cross Navy 7 Lafayette Colgate 8 Navy Loyola 9 Loyola American 10 Army Lafayette

Northeast

Summary: Not a lot of signature performances this non-conference slate.  Wagner upset UConn then took the rest of the semester off.  Bob Morris has avoided getting blown out, but can put teams away either. Some people are high on Fairleigh Dickinson, but they cannot stop anyone and are a fluky NCAA run last year away from having been a perennial dumpster fire.  Bryant did this.  Mount Saint Mary’s stole an early one from a sleepy George Mason team, but hasn’t done anything.

What I got wrong: Bryant is a very talented freshmen-based team.  They have the most talented player in the conference.  They are not Kentucky though, so the early going was rough.  Other than that, this was pretty close, with the bottom four playing to form.

Prognosis: I still like Bryant, but there is no way they are winning this league.  The Seahawks are the only team capable of pulling a real upset, but these are 17 seed caliber teams.  I expect Robert Morris to win the regular season title, but Bryant and Wagner are playing for the bid. 

NE Preseason Realtime 1 Bryant Robert Morris 2 Wagner Wagner 3 Fairleigh Dickinson Long Island 4 Robert Morris Bryant 5 Long Island Mount Saint Mary's 6 Sacred Heart Fairleigh Dickinson 7 Mount Saint Mary's Sacred Heart 8 Saint Francis, NY Saint Francis, NY 9 Saint Francis, PA Saint Francis, PA 10 Central Connecticut State Central Connecticut State

2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.