One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:

Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

One-Bid League Reality Check

I like to stand by my preseason call as long as possible.  Some of these calls, such as Howard in the MEAC, were flawed from the start.  Other calls, such as Liberty in the Big South, were sabotaged by injury or circumstance.  Sometimes you tried to ride a darkhorse, like Bryant, who just does not have the talent to emerge.  And finally, sometimes you think you really understand a team and its ability to deploy a tactic upon lesser competition, only you were dead wrong, as in the case the case of my Horizon picks.

First, preseason to league play, I maintained 25 of 32 projected winners.  Better than 75% isn’t bad, but there is still work to be done.  Also, it warrants mentioning that for the for the “surely auto-bid” leagues, we are selecting who is most likely to make the field, not necessarily who is going to have the best league win percentages.

Conferences that I definitely need to amend:

Northeast

America East

Southland

MAC

Conferences that will not fall my way, but intend to stick with my call to upset the tourney:

Summit

Patriot

Big West

Conferences way too close to call:

Sun Belt

Southern

Ivy

Big South (Liberty, back from the dead!)

Northeast

Let me disclose- this is an awful conference this year.  I rolled the dice with Bryant early, flopped to Robert Morris, but now it impossible to decide.  I love a local pick in Mount St. Mary’s, but not so sure they can sustain their run trotting out a bunch of mites.  FDU has warts, and LIU just dumped to a very weak CCSU team.  Nobody has shown that they can compete at the “Field of 68” level, but we will reward the Mountaineers for their consistency that will lead them through the NEC.

America East

Straight up, Vermont may be one of the 68 best teams in the country.  Seriously, you wouldn’t take them in your bracket over the bottom 10 SEC teams?  I originally, and still, wanted New Hampshire to put it all together because they have never been anywhere near the postseason before.  Nobody in this league has the ability to solve Vermont’s attack.  UMBC may be able to push the pace, but they won’t get the stops.  The Cats also live around the rim, so they are less prone to a cold shooting night.

Southland

It doesn’t look like the “Community College” turning it around soon enough.  There is still a lot to like there, but the results aren’t happening.  The Jacks are near the top of the standings, but the kenpom numbers tell another story.  New Orleans has come out of nowhere, but I’m leaning toward the Bearkats.  After a slow start, they have won 7 in a row, including at New Orleans.  Both teams are poor shooting and loose with the ball, but I expect the Privateers to regress (two OT wins).

Mid-American

Akron is one of the few teams enjoying success maintaining a slow tempo when the game has opened up to “embrace the pace”.  This is the slowest team Keith Dambrot has put on the floor at Akron, but they work to exploit the 3-point shot, and make just enough to be dangerous.  Outside of a sloppy start against Youngstown State, they have beaten everyone they were supposed to beat.  They still have Ohio and EMU on the road that could expose a flaw, but I expect them to coast through.

Fun stat: Since reaching the Final Four in 2007, the Georgetown Hoyas have been knocked out of the NCAA tourney 6 straight times by lower seeds.  It will be interesting to see if JT3 gets a chance to extend that streak, because it will not be this year.

Conference Updates: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South

America East

Summary: Calling this one well thus far.  New Hampshire, Vermont, and Albany are clearly the 3 best teams, with an ocean down to the rest of the conference.  Maine is the weakest sister by a mile right now.

What I got wrong:  Hartford owns a win over Boston College, but has nothing else to lean on.  UMBC has not beaten anyone of note, and only recently even played anyone near the Top 100, but looks like an upper half team.

Prognosis: New Hampshire still looks to be the 16 seed breaking out of here.  Albany owns the best win (Penn St) and UNH was absolutely massacred by a fiery WVU team, but still look to be the most consistent team.  Vermont has played the best schedule and could have had a nice resume booster over Houston but let it slip away.

Preseason	Realtime
New Hampshire	New Hampshire
Vermont	Vermont
Albany	Albany
Hartford	UMBC
Umass-Lowell	Stony Brook
Stony Brook	Umass-Lowell
UMBC	Hartford
Binghamton	Binghamton
Maine	Maine

Atlantic Sun

Summary: Feeling like I am 75% here as well. Florida Gulf Coast is playing like a single digit seed, but will likely have their numbers depressed by a dreadful conference.

What I got wrong:  North Florida is a fluky last second shot away from having zero D-1 wins.  Kennesaw State is exhibiting some of the same defensive tendencies that got Al Skinner pushed out of BC and don’t look anywhere ready to contend.  NJIT on the other hand has turned the screws on a couple Big Ten teams and probably will not be taken so lightly going forward.

Prognosis: FGCU is going to dominate this conference.  They do not have a bad loss and hold a win over fellow bracket buster Arlington.  Jacksonville and Lipscomb are strong, but the best win between the two of the came against a team that just had to remove its coach for assaulting his players.

SUN	Preseason	Realtime
1	Florida Gulf Coast	Florida Gulf Coast
2	North Florida	Jacksonville
3	Jacksonville	Lipscomb
4	Lipscomb	NJIT
5	Kennesaw State	North Florida
6	Stetson	Kennesaw State
7	NJIT	Stetson
8	USC Upstate	USC Upstate

Big South

Summary: Liberty isn’t going to win this conference without Caleb Homesley.  The guy is a ninja.  That puts Winthrop back in the driver’s seat and UNC Asheville running shotgun…. Longwood and Presbyterian are not coming along for this ride.

What I got wrong: Gardner Webb looks feisty and could give teams fits.

Prognosis: Interesting two-horse race, where Winthrop plays the role of surgeon, while Asheville is a defensive nightmare.  I like the team with the tourney pedigree to take the title, but UNCA played a fair schedule and nearly stole one against the Buckeyes.  If it can work for Huggy Bear in Morgantown, it can easily disrupt the slop in the Big South.  Gardner Webb’s win over Nebraska looks pretty sweet right about now as well.  My wife was also amazed that Radford had D-1 basketball… she was even more impressed when she found out they even made the tournament a couple times… not this year though.

BS	Preseason	Realtime
1	Liberty	Winthrop
2	Winthrop	UNC Asheville
3	UNC Asheville	Gardner Webb
4	Charleston Southern	Liberty
5	Campbell	Charleston Southern
6	High Point	Campbell
7	Radford	High Point
8	Gardner Webb	Radford
9	Longwood	Longwood
10	Presbyterian	Presbyterian

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2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.