Small Conferences

OK, my honest bad... the Sun Belt has no business being lumped in here, but they fall at the end of the alphabet and I forgot them.

That being said... this looks like the "New Valley"... the mid major that is growing competent basketball programs and finding new player pipelines.  Scott Cross has UT Arlington humming, Troy is sharp, GSU and GSU are winning talent over their BCS counterparts.  The bottom of the conference has fallen mightily, as it seems just yesterday Little Rock was rocking Purdue.

Liberty was killed by injury last year, but should be back to top Asheville and Winthrop.

The Big West was maddeningly mediocre last season.  Long Beach looked like they blew an easy slate, but it turns out that they are not very good.  Reggie Theus is probably missing the days of easy recruiting and homecourt advantage in Las Cruces; Northridge isn't getting much better this season. Davis will slide back to the field after last year's run.  I expect Hawaii to pull it together for a run after having to sit last year out.

The Northeast Conference is a total wild card.  St. Francis PA looks the deepest, but I could see any of the top 8 sneaking into Dayton and making some noise.

Florida Gulf Coast is so much deeper and more prepared than the rest of this conference it is not even funny.  In other seasons, I would give Lipscomb some hope, but I'd expect FGCU to nearly run the table.

The Southland is balanced.

MEAC is much stronger than the SWAC this year... the SWAC is really struggling right now, both on and off the court, but Mike Davis at least seems to have Texas Southern competing at the level of the other small conferences.  The top 4 in the MEAC look OK.

Conference Updates: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South

America East

Summary: Calling this one well thus far.  New Hampshire, Vermont, and Albany are clearly the 3 best teams, with an ocean down to the rest of the conference.  Maine is the weakest sister by a mile right now.

What I got wrong:  Hartford owns a win over Boston College, but has nothing else to lean on.  UMBC has not beaten anyone of note, and only recently even played anyone near the Top 100, but looks like an upper half team.

Prognosis: New Hampshire still looks to be the 16 seed breaking out of here.  Albany owns the best win (Penn St) and UNH was absolutely massacred by a fiery WVU team, but still look to be the most consistent team.  Vermont has played the best schedule and could have had a nice resume booster over Houston but let it slip away.

Preseason	Realtime
New Hampshire	New Hampshire
Vermont	Vermont
Albany	Albany
Hartford	UMBC
Umass-Lowell	Stony Brook
Stony Brook	Umass-Lowell
UMBC	Hartford
Binghamton	Binghamton
Maine	Maine

Atlantic Sun

Summary: Feeling like I am 75% here as well. Florida Gulf Coast is playing like a single digit seed, but will likely have their numbers depressed by a dreadful conference.

What I got wrong:  North Florida is a fluky last second shot away from having zero D-1 wins.  Kennesaw State is exhibiting some of the same defensive tendencies that got Al Skinner pushed out of BC and don’t look anywhere ready to contend.  NJIT on the other hand has turned the screws on a couple Big Ten teams and probably will not be taken so lightly going forward.

Prognosis: FGCU is going to dominate this conference.  They do not have a bad loss and hold a win over fellow bracket buster Arlington.  Jacksonville and Lipscomb are strong, but the best win between the two of the came against a team that just had to remove its coach for assaulting his players.

SUN	Preseason	Realtime
1	Florida Gulf Coast	Florida Gulf Coast
2	North Florida	Jacksonville
3	Jacksonville	Lipscomb
4	Lipscomb	NJIT
5	Kennesaw State	North Florida
6	Stetson	Kennesaw State
7	NJIT	Stetson
8	USC Upstate	USC Upstate

Big South

Summary: Liberty isn’t going to win this conference without Caleb Homesley.  The guy is a ninja.  That puts Winthrop back in the driver’s seat and UNC Asheville running shotgun…. Longwood and Presbyterian are not coming along for this ride.

What I got wrong: Gardner Webb looks feisty and could give teams fits.

Prognosis: Interesting two-horse race, where Winthrop plays the role of surgeon, while Asheville is a defensive nightmare.  I like the team with the tourney pedigree to take the title, but UNCA played a fair schedule and nearly stole one against the Buckeyes.  If it can work for Huggy Bear in Morgantown, it can easily disrupt the slop in the Big South.  Gardner Webb’s win over Nebraska looks pretty sweet right about now as well.  My wife was also amazed that Radford had D-1 basketball… she was even more impressed when she found out they even made the tournament a couple times… not this year though.

BS	Preseason	Realtime
1	Liberty	Winthrop
2	Winthrop	UNC Asheville
3	UNC Asheville	Gardner Webb
4	Charleston Southern	Liberty
5	Campbell	Charleston Southern
6	High Point	Campbell
7	Radford	High Point
8	Gardner Webb	Radford
9	Longwood	Longwood
10	Presbyterian	Presbyterian

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2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.