Conference Updates: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South

America East

Summary: Calling this one well thus far.  New Hampshire, Vermont, and Albany are clearly the 3 best teams, with an ocean down to the rest of the conference.  Maine is the weakest sister by a mile right now.

What I got wrong:  Hartford owns a win over Boston College, but has nothing else to lean on.  UMBC has not beaten anyone of note, and only recently even played anyone near the Top 100, but looks like an upper half team.

Prognosis: New Hampshire still looks to be the 16 seed breaking out of here.  Albany owns the best win (Penn St) and UNH was absolutely massacred by a fiery WVU team, but still look to be the most consistent team.  Vermont has played the best schedule and could have had a nice resume booster over Houston but let it slip away.

Preseason	Realtime
New Hampshire	New Hampshire
Vermont	Vermont
Albany	Albany
Hartford	UMBC
Umass-Lowell	Stony Brook
Stony Brook	Umass-Lowell
UMBC	Hartford
Binghamton	Binghamton
Maine	Maine

Atlantic Sun

Summary: Feeling like I am 75% here as well. Florida Gulf Coast is playing like a single digit seed, but will likely have their numbers depressed by a dreadful conference.

What I got wrong:  North Florida is a fluky last second shot away from having zero D-1 wins.  Kennesaw State is exhibiting some of the same defensive tendencies that got Al Skinner pushed out of BC and don’t look anywhere ready to contend.  NJIT on the other hand has turned the screws on a couple Big Ten teams and probably will not be taken so lightly going forward.

Prognosis: FGCU is going to dominate this conference.  They do not have a bad loss and hold a win over fellow bracket buster Arlington.  Jacksonville and Lipscomb are strong, but the best win between the two of the came against a team that just had to remove its coach for assaulting his players.

SUN	Preseason	Realtime
1	Florida Gulf Coast	Florida Gulf Coast
2	North Florida	Jacksonville
3	Jacksonville	Lipscomb
4	Lipscomb	NJIT
5	Kennesaw State	North Florida
6	Stetson	Kennesaw State
7	NJIT	Stetson
8	USC Upstate	USC Upstate

Big South

Summary: Liberty isn’t going to win this conference without Caleb Homesley.  The guy is a ninja.  That puts Winthrop back in the driver’s seat and UNC Asheville running shotgun…. Longwood and Presbyterian are not coming along for this ride.

What I got wrong: Gardner Webb looks feisty and could give teams fits.

Prognosis: Interesting two-horse race, where Winthrop plays the role of surgeon, while Asheville is a defensive nightmare.  I like the team with the tourney pedigree to take the title, but UNCA played a fair schedule and nearly stole one against the Buckeyes.  If it can work for Huggy Bear in Morgantown, it can easily disrupt the slop in the Big South.  Gardner Webb’s win over Nebraska looks pretty sweet right about now as well.  My wife was also amazed that Radford had D-1 basketball… she was even more impressed when she found out they even made the tournament a couple times… not this year though.

BS	Preseason	Realtime
1	Liberty	Winthrop
2	Winthrop	UNC Asheville
3	UNC Asheville	Gardner Webb
4	Charleston Southern	Liberty
5	Campbell	Charleston Southern
6	High Point	Campbell
7	Radford	High Point
8	Gardner Webb	Radford
9	Longwood	Longwood
10	Presbyterian	Presbyterian

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December 6 Poll

Moving out: Michigan State, Iowa State, Dayton, Monmouth, Arizona

1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. UCLA
4. Kentucky
5. Louisville
6. Gonzaga
7. Wisconsin
8. Indiana
9. Kansas
10. North Carolina
11. Baylor
12. Creighton
13. West Virginia
14. Virginia
15. Butler
16. Purdue
17. Saint Mary’s, CA
18. Xavier
19. South Carolina
20. Wichita State
21. Cincinnati
22. Miami, FL
23. Oregon
24. UNC Wilmington
25. Texas Christian

Moving in: Baylor, Butler, South Carolina, UNCW, TCU

How are they out: The other USC, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, Middle Tennessee State

People take polls so god damn personally that it is a futile exercise I almost prefer not to do.  I try not to let head to head results dictate "what I actually think" and "who I perceive to be best."  Anything can happen in 40 minutes, and it is nuts to think that just because Team X beat Team Y, particularly on their home floor, that result defines those two teams.

That said, I gave UCLA the juice bump because that was one of the most complete games you will, and may have seen, like ever.  Indian gets the nudge over UNC, despite the game taking place in Bloomington, though that is a tenuous position given the injuries.  UVA drops behind WVU.  Baylor continues to take on everyone and win.

I went with UNCW over MTSU because I think their style will equate to more wins over better competition.  I expect the Seahawks to dump a few CAA game to inferior competition when the shots do not fall, while the Raiders methodically dismember Conference USA.  Come tourney time, though, I think UNCW has a better chance to run through to an autobid, while MTSU is stuck fighting ODU, UAB, Marshall, and Charlotte.

No excuses for the teams moving out of the polls.  They have all lost winnable games and at times looked disorganized enough to question their talent level, question being the operative word, not disprove.

Notre Dame and Southern Cal... well, what can I say.  I honestly have yet to see USC play yet, and the Irish swept the Legends in NY in unconvincing fashion.

The ACC/BigTen Challenge as a Bracket Barometer

With so many viable bracket and bubble contender, the ACC/BigTen Challenge provides a slightly closed system with fair matchups to see how these strengths stack up.  While anyone can have an off night on the floor, 14 contests are a decent sample size to at least feel how these teams stack up.  Feel free to reference back to the charts.  Bracket.  BCS.  First outs.

Purdue (projected 3) at Louisville (2); Result: Louisville wins 71-64, confirmed.  Louisville jumped out early, never looked back. 

Rutgers (OUT) at Miami (5); Result: Miami wins 73-61, confirmed.  Rutgers was undefeated head to south Florida, but this game stayed closer longer that I had anticipated. 

Nebraska (BUBBLE POOL) at Clemson (BUBBLE POOL); Result: Clemson wins 60-58, confirmed?  Both these teams have a lot to prove to get back into the discussion, so it makes sense this was a battle to the end.  Clemson steals a potential Top 50 win.

Virginia Tech (10) at Michigan (11); Result: Tech wins 73-70, confirmed.  I really didn’t think the Hokies could pull this one out on the road, especially against Michigan’s tight defense.  Win will be big in March.

North Carolina (3) at Indiana (2); Result: Indiana wins 76-63, confirmed.  Wow, Indiana did not f-around after that loss at Fort Wayne.  A road loss doesn’t mean too much for UNC, but a big bounce back win for the Hoosiers keeps them on the 2 line for while.

Ohio State (SECOND FIVE) at Virginia (1); Result: Virginia wins 63-61, disputed?  The Cavs played like a bag of wet hair, taking poor shots all game, and still pulled this out.  The Buckeyes booted so many chances to put the dagger in.  Either way, I think one of these teams is probably no quite rated correctly… whether UVA gets bumped to a two (not elite) or Ohio State turns the screws on Michigan, MSU, Maryland, and Iowa.

Pittsburgh (FIRST FIVE) at Maryland (8); Result: Pittsburgh wins 73-59, disputed.  Ooof.  I could see this type of score line for a road game, but the Panthers are expected to be a year away adjusting schemes and bringing in “different” talent.  This result flexes the depth of the ACC.

Georgia Tech (OUT) at Penn State (OUT); Result: Penn State wins 67-60, confirmed.  PSU wins at home, and the line is a wash.  Not much to discern here, other than both are a game closer to the NIT.

Syracuse (SECOND FIVE) at Wisconsin (2); Result: Wisconsin wins 77-60, confirmed.  Most people will keep Syracuse in their polls and brackets, and I don’t have much reason to hold them out other than this looks to be a rebuild season as opposed to a reload, despite the early results.  The 2-3 zone couldn’t hold the drive-kick-bomb by Hayes/Koenig, but for the most part, that should allow the Orange to split in conference and get on the bubble.

NC State (FIRST FIVE) at Illinois (OUT); Result: Illinois wins 88-74, disputed.  I will not fault a team for losing on the road, but NC State was handled pretty well by a team that was eventually run over by Florida State.  The Pack rotation is only 6 deep, which will get them in trouble against fast and physical opponents.

Iowa (9) at Notre Dame (7); Result: Notre Dame wins 92-78, confirmed.  I would like to think this is my crowning achievement.  My original outline had Iowa #4 in the Big 10 and Notre Dame #7 in the ACC.  After exhaustively balancing the equation, they both fell to #6, and with the strength of the ACC superior, Notre Dame landed 9 spots ahead on the S-curve.  Vindicated.

Michigan State (6) at Duke (1): Result: Duke wins 77-69, confirmed.  Coach K has revealed Duke has no depth.  Jones and Kennard have each dropped a complete game 3 times this year… before December.  That’s a lot of unnecessary miles against Penn State and URI.  MSU is wallowing in preseason schedule hell, with what looks to be 4 quality losses (assuming Arizona and Baylor hold on) and one near blown shot against the Shockers.  The December slate is pretty sloppy and if they lose any of these, they will slide in the seedings. MSU and Pitt have taken an approach of not forcing turnovers.  Very Odd.

Minnesota (OUT) at Florida State (8); Result: Florida State wins 75-67, confirmed.  Little Pitino has the Gophers with solid wins over Arlington and Arkansas, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they back-doored a cover.  This was a 17-point game with 5 to play, so I’ll say things regress to the mean.

Wake Forest (OUT) at Northwestern (FIRST FIVE); Result: Northwestern wins 65-58, confirmed.  The Deacs are competitive early and NW looks to be in the same position every year, being good enough to not finish last, but never getting over the hump.

Final score: 10 matchups confirmed analysis, 2 matchups are inconclusive, and 2 matchups disputed the analysis.  I’ll take those percentages any day for a rough run it Bracketology after being out of the game five years.

A Comment on the Mountaineers Historic Night

On Monday, West Virginia forced Manhattan into 40 turnovers... yes, once per minute, a confused Jasper was making a poor decision to lead to points the other way.  Numerous folks were quick to laud Bob Huggins and his players for the accomplishment and what this performance could mean for them going forward.

Well, probably nothing.  23 minutes was the most minutes any player logged, which means that no singular player is responsible for the disruption Monday night.

The argument against this assertion is that they also forced 34 against New Hampshire, 26 against Mississippi Valley State, and 21 against Mount Saint Mary's.  While I like New Hampshire in a weak America East this year, that is a slate of crap to pray on at home.  They did a good job splitting their games over the break (blowing out Illinois isn't THAT impressive this year, and losing to Temple, eh?), but the real test will be this weekend in Charlottesville.  Without the benefit of home court whistles getting swallowed, my guess is that their insane 35% turnover per possession rate begins to regress toward the mean.  Right now, the Mountaineers shooting defense is just average and has relied on pure pressure and benefit of the doubt from officials.  A stronger team like UVA will not put themselves in those situations, and if they do, their is a good chance the whistle will bail them out.

I still like West Virginia for a high seed and are legitimately the second best team in the Big 12, but they have a lot of room for improvement.  The turnover rate is more indicative of the quality of opponent.

Butler wins again

It's no longer news that the Big East is better than most thought it would be.  A year after hangover would be excusable for Villanova, and Xavier already peaked.  Seton Hall and Creighton looked to be ascending, but were considered fringe 25 teams.  DePaul and St. John's are currently rebuilding and have no chance, and Providence is retooling and hoping to compete without any established or nationally acclaimed players.  That left Butler, Marquette, and Georgetown on the Bubble.  Butler, with much transition and tragedy the last 18 months, look like more of a long shot.

Thus far Nova has held serve, Xavier is reaching new heights, and Creighton looked to be making the step until the Hanson injury will force them to reevaluate the rotation.  Providence is exceeding expectations in the early going, playing tight in games they looked to be far outclassed.  Seton Hall and Georgetown scheduled the gauntlet, which has not phased the Pirates, though there is real reason for concern on the Potomac, and JTIII has to be feeling some heat.

Surprising and joining the Top 3 has been Butler, no longer looking like a bubble team but a legitimate major conference threat that could earn a top 4 seed.  They picked up an early win over fellow bubble denizen Northwestern, traveled to slay Vandy and Arizona, then capped it off with a road win at Utah, which is about as inhospitable conditions to play in as they come.  Rolling to 7-0 is solid, but the quality of wins already has them in the driver's seat against 3 conferences when pitting strength of schedule.  They still can grab two more big wins hosting Cinci and taking Indiana in Indianapolis.

Chris Holtman is actually creatively mixing small and big lineups to suffocate opponents.  Right now, Kenpom has identified that Kamar Baldwin may be warranting more minutes as a defensive specialist, and the ancillary shooters are hitting regularly enough that teams cannot key and pinch on Martin.  Other than height, the Bulldogs do not have a weakness that the big boys can exploit.  While there is no way they are going undefeated, they will be a tough out for the rest of the Big East.

Bracket Analysis

Made my first lock of the minute call earlier tonight.  Probably won’t use Twitter much more than a means to bitch about bad calls and bad end of game plays which pounding back beers at The Hatt.

Analysis by region:

East:

Keeping Villanova in this spot until proven otherwise.  They will draw the weakest play in game.  I split up Howard and Bryant (both those picks look dubious in the early going, but regular season results mean very little in one bid leagues) and the clearly next two weakest teams (New Hampshire and Liberty) will fill the 16 seed play-ins.  Balancing out the ACC, Big Ten, and Big East will prove difficult, which is why Louisville and UNC slip out of their S-Curve spots to steer clear of Duke and UVA.  I have Louisville I hair ahead of the Heels now, and sense that they will even out as the conference schedule shakes out.  Xavier also looks to be 2-seed worth again, but I have them solidly below UNC, Purdue, and all the other projected 2s for now.

With 2 Big East Teams, 1 ACC, 1 A-10, and 1 MVC team as the Top 5 seeds, this already has the perception of the “weak bracket” which would favor the overall 1 seed.  The Spartans are dragging ass in November, which is par for the course for them.  I find it hard to believe that they slip further south than a 6, even with 10 losses.  Southern Methodist is a total wild card down here, and could play a dark horse Sweet 16/Elite 8 here.  They look sharp early, but will not face the most trying conference slate… if they fall below 3^rd in that conference, I doubt they will get called again… they missed a couple years ago as a ranked team, which let’s you know what the committee thinks of the AAC.

BYU is already a candidate to slide out in favor of a fourth A-10 team (pushing Nevada this way) or an extra PAC-12 or ACC team (Colorado, Pittsburgh).  Florid Gulf Coast, Belmont, and Green Bay have to be happy with this draw.  Overall, neither the 8/9 seeds are a threat to Villanova (yeah, tell NCState that).  Other than that, this is wide open.

South:

Duke is the consensus #1 team until Monday, but they keep this spot until January.  They get the Kansas looks to surge to a high seed based on strength of schedule, but this is a 7-loss team.  Despite the highlight reels draft picks, this is probably not a top 10 squad.  Purdue gets a preferred seed to avenge last season’s disappointment.  They are a physical team and shouldn’t crap the bed again.  Gonzaga will waver between a 3 and 7 seed, depending on whose rankings you use.  Once again, they attract NBA caliber talent (or bodies at least) that will be imposing against any team.  They need a run to solidify nearly 2 decades of dominance in the regular season.  The Blue Jays will build an impressive resume, but this team looks like it will collect a couple questionable losses to keep them out of the elite.  Not sure about UCLA… they seem to have some chemistry issues, and while nobody will question Steve Alford’s coaching acumen, he may not have the personality for UCLA, where the expectations outweigh the atmosphere to win.

The way that this season is playing out, URI and Notre Dame can easily switch lines in this bracket.  A Duke/Maryland second round game would be bizarre on a couple fronts, and not really a matchup Duke wants.  Monmouth is holding a 12 seed, but that really requires nobody in the MAAC to suck ass and drive down their strength of schedule.  They have already missed a couple non-conference scalps as well, probably eliminating their at-large potential. Harvard is the projected winner based on potential, but if Princeton refuses to lose, they would demand a much higher seed.  Lehigh recruits well and gets the kinds of players that can make life difficult for any top seed.

MidWest:

Kentucky should run the table in the SEC, but with a young roster (again), expect some growing pains.  The strength of the SEC does them no favors.  4 big non-conference games will decide their fate as the number 1 overall or just a number 1.  The Big Ten, missing the 1 line, should get at least 1 2 seed, and Indiana is the second team drawn from the conference.  Typically, the committee avoids putting both the SWAC and MEAC in the play in games, and Texas Southern should compile the numbers to justify the 15 seed.  Fort Wayne has already taken down the Hoosiers and should roll to a huge opportunity against UNC.  Though this game is likely to end up in Greenville, could you imagine the upset potential if they end up in Indy?  Both Arizona and Miami are fine teams from strong conferences, but do they scare anyone?

Iowa State will get the misadventure of drawing the play-in winner, who will almost surely be favored.  So I do admit that Baylor, Florida, and Syracuse are making me look pretty stupid early on, and the presence of Georgetown over any of those 3 teams, amongst 20 other deserving teams early this season, takes away much of the validity of this projection.  For now, let’s just say Georgetown wins the Big East tourney.  South Carolina is one of my early season favorites to sneak into the Sweet 16.  Unlike the East Region, the 8/9 game provides a legitimate threat to Kentucky to bust the bracket.  Texas has some ground to cover, but Butler will give them fits.

The Aztecs are talented enough and play the opponents to get a better seed, but they are not the 2 seed of yesteryear.  In addition to Fort Wayne, Wilmington and Arlington will provide must see matchups regardless where they matchup, 11 to 15.

West:

The West always seems to grab the weakest sister of the 1 seeds.  This shouldn’t be an insult to UVA, because once again they are going to be lights out.  I am not sure how Tony Bennett squeezes the life out of every basketball game, and why it never works come March, but the results are on paper.  Bakersfield is game, but not putting up 50 against them.  Marquette can get after anyone when they go small, but is a long shot.  They should have the composure to survive a shootout with the Razorbacks..  Wisconsin can fall anywhere from 1 to 4, but they have the most talent and experience in the conference.  Oregon’s 2015 run may be written off as a fluke if they don’t repeat.  Still the most talented team in the conference, but there is some concern the tempo can only take them so far.  Bob Huggins has built a consistent winner in Morgantown and will draw an interesting regional rivalry game against Ohio.  The Bobcats have been strong for years.

The 12 seed play in game is one of the more exciting clashing of systems.  Both teams are methodical offensively, but use unique defensive solutions to limit points.  Michigan plays more high-level talent, but Northern Iowa has a pretty balanced roster 1-10 and can survive foul trouble and injuries.  Saint Mary’s could be crewed catching the winner of that game.   Cincinnati is the class of the AAC and will draw a decent, but overachieving Davidson team.  Seton Hall and Tech aren’t blowing anybody’s skirts up and have a lot to show to be considered contenders… as opposed to “just good enough.”

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This should get a good look over the next holidays with an update around New Year’s.  Expect to see some movement on the lower end at large teams… little on the one-bids.