Updates: Mountain West and West Coast

Finally, legitimate multi-bid leagues!

Mountain West

Summary: The wheels came off quickly for San Diego State, as the Aztecs blew several games in which they were the clear favorite.  They have never been great offensively under Fisher, but they have sunk into the “bad” to “really bad.”  Injuries are not an excuse here.  Outside a day one blowout to Saint Mary’s, Nevada has played to form and should get the necessary wins to be on the bubble for an 11 seed.  Boise State has the best win in conference over SMU, but need to take advantage of a gimpy Dillon Brooks as that would have looked great on the resume.  I am sticking to my guns that Colorado State is still a year away.  Craig Neal is probably Dead Man Walking in Albuquerque.  The bottom four in this conference have shaped up exactly as expected.

What I got wrong: Well, at least I didn’t have the Aztecs up top like everyone else, but I did expect them to back into the dance.  That probably will not happen.  After stealing a win from Nevada, Fresno State reverted to form by choking one down against lowly SJST.

Prognosis: It warrants mentioning that kenpom projects a single loss for SDST from here on out, so they could right the ship, but it is unlikely given the performance.  Nevada will clear the Broncos by a game or two in the standings.  Wyoming probably has the best shot of making a move out of the basement to the middle of the pack.  It is truly amazing how poorly this conference has shot thus far.

MWC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Nevada	Nevada
2	San Diego State	Boise State
3	New Mexico	San Diego State
4	Fresno State	Colorado State
5	Boise State	New Mexico
6	Utah State	Utah State
7	Colorado State	Fresno State
8	Air Force	Air Force
9	UNLV	UNLV
10	Wyoming	Wyoming
11	San Jose State	San Jose State

West Coast

Summary: It’s so hard to quantify the WCC.  Gonzaga is one of the top 8 teams in the country, and the Gaels are right behind them in the top 20.  Neither will be really tested except by each other, which if St. Mary’s cannot split, they will go into the WCC tourney with BS talk about how they can’t win the big ones.  Arlington is their only blemish, with wins over Nevada and Dayton, and they couldn’t have expected UAB and Stanford would end up mediocre wins.  BYU has done just enough to play themselves out of the tournament, but are so clearly the next best team that they just need to steal one or two out of five against the big guys to improve their profile.

What I got wrong: Pepperdine is terrible.  They started 4-1 with a suspect loss to Central Michigan, but then the wheels, in the form of Amadi Udenyi’s Achilles, came off in a hurry.  San Francisco is on the rise, but looking at .500.

Prognosis: These schools, in order to compete, must find a niche the way Randy Bennett has.  Right now, this conference is 3 horses competing for 2 spots, hoping to get a charge from Pepperdine (next season if Udenyi get a redshirt), Santa Clara, or San Francisco.  Loyola Marymount has spent 2 decades climbing back to mediocrity.  Gonzaga is almost guaranteed a 1 seed, and the Gaels are in the 4/5 range.  BYU is still hanging around the play in games, but will likely suffer the same fate as last season, running themselves straight to the NIT.

WCC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
2	Saint Mary's	Saint Mary's
3	Pepperdine	Brigham Young
4	Brigham Young	San Francisco
5	Santa Clara	Santa Clara
6	Loyola Marymount	Loyola Marymount
7	San Francisco	Portland
8	San Diego	Pepperdine
9	Portland	San Diego
10	Pacific	Pacific

Apologies to:

The first 5 out:
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Colorado

North Carolina State

Oklahoma State

Northwestern

Pittsburgh

The next 5 out

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Virginia Commonwealth

Syracuse

Texas Tech

Saint Bonaventure

Ohio State

Rough year for the MWC and MVC.  I knew that the MVC lacked depth behind Wichita State, but Northern Iowa again will have to play their way into the main field, barring a spectacular conference season (like 16-2) or a big surge from the bottom of the conference to drive up their strength of schedule.

Giving the regular season title and first round bye to Nevada, San Diego State will play their way in as well.  Steve Fisher finds a way to win games, but this looks to be a slightly down year.  The conference second tier schools just aren't bringing enough clout to even get to the final 24, which makes it difficult to objectively compare the Aztecs outside head to head.

I gave Michigan the nod over Ohio State and Northwestern.  They will finish .500 in league play, but will get the nod in all the metrics (Pomeroy, Sagarin, RPI).  I had to do some deep digging, and really feel any of the top 3 teams on the first 5 out list have earned it more, but I'll ignore week 1 results and give Georgetown the nod for the other slot.

I also just have no desire to put Syracuse in until they prove they aren't going to mail in the first four months again, but they could end up clowning me again.

Seeding the bracket tonight.

When a no-no is a no-no.

Well, Stephen Strasburg has gone and done it this time. The response here in DC has ranged from euphoric to orgasmic. Sydney Crosby was the last prospect in any sport that I can remember being gushed over like this. Overnight, he went from being the top prospect to the ONLY prospect. And it is hard to argue the kid's stuff.

But shame on Stephen Strasburg. Shame on him for getting everybody all riled up. First of all, if you think you are the consensus number 1 pick in the draft, is it really fair to be beating on cadets from the Air Force Academy? Most high schools could take 1 out of 3 from the Falcons. I know it is a conference game, but why not save that type of performance for when the cards are really on the table in the NCAA regionals? Who knows what must be going through Scott Boras' head right now.

College pitchers, while almost always more prepared to step into the show within a couple seasons, tend to be a funny breed. Making the jump requires a mental toughness that he may not have. Pitching in the Mountain West Conference against student-athletes, facing maybe two to three bats capable of finding their way to high-A ball (or Air Force, with zero), is light years away from facing guys who are doing it for their livelihood. It is far from a sure thing that he will be able to help the Nats right away. So few top power prospects pan out; I root Justin Verlander every time, hoping he can harness his stuff before his arm falls off. I just can't see how 102 mph is sustainable for a starting pitcher.

It is a tough call, and the scout really have to get into his to see if this is the guy that can push himself and take care of himself. Can he be a team guy, even though he might never have to play for another contract, knowing his ticket to the majors is punched without having to earn it in AA and AAA?

In the end, the price has to be right, too. Even Johan Santana and other proven commodities have a market value; remember how foolish the Yankees looked dragging Roger Clemens out of retirement for his king's ransom. The timing of his gem could not have been more perfect from a financial standpoint. From a player development and draft perspective, maybe not so much. The pressure will be insurmountable to draft and sign Strasburg, and the pressure will be insurmountable to live up to the expectations of being Scott Boras' prized thoroughbred. Mark Teixeira has struggled in New York, and the general history of top drafted pitchers is daunting.

The money and the makeup.