Update: Southeastern

Southeastern

Summary: I don’t think that the SEC is any better or worse than projected.  There is a lot of NIT fodder out there and very few NCAA locks.  Sindarius Thornwell proved he is one of the most important players in the league.  With him in the lineup, the Gamecocks are a Top 20 team.  Florida will visit them this week to give a feel for whom is playing runner up to the Wildcats.  If you are sniffing for a fourth team coming out this conference, I’d lean more toward Mississippi State over Arkansas at this point.  The Razorbacks are off their game.  Not sure if Mike Anderson is deliberately slowing his team’s tempo because of the personnel, or they just cannot execute.  Georgia is not terrible, but they also have not shown the ability to regularly knock down enough shots to beat tournament (NCAA or NIT) caliber talent.

What I got wrong: Florida has transitioned quickly to a team that can generate enough offense with their defense to win games.  Not quite on the same level as West Virginia, but they should pretty easily get to 12-13 SEC win and a 7 seed.  The conference’s staggering 1-27 record against the Sagarin Top 25 reads more like the MEAC than a major.

Prognosis: Nothing is stopping Kentucky from running through the SEC slate with 1 or fewer losses.  I see Calipari easing off the accelerator to preserve his freshmen’s legs, but they are a clear cut 1 seed.  Obviously, USC and Florida are mid-bracket teams that will be tough outs in the round of 32 for higher seeds.  Auburn has shown some flashes of brilliance, but countered it with extended stretches of poor play.  MSU and Georgia are trending better than Arkansas right now, but all three are play-in game material at best.  I kept Alabama in that group at the bottom.  They are playing better than that and will finish with 7 or so SEC wins, but their ceiling is low.  Vandy and Ole Miss are much better candidates to get their crap together.  It’s hard to imagine Missouri not improving at some point, but they don’t even seem close to winning an SEC game this year… 2 wins would be a minor miracle.

SEC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Kentucky	Kentucky
2	South Carolina	South Carolina
3	Arkansas	Florida
4	Auburn	Arkansas
5	Mississippi	Mississippi State
6	Georgia	Georgia
7	Mississippi State	Texas A&M
8	Texas A&M	Auburn
9	Tennessee	Mississippi
10	Florida	Vanderbilt
11	Vanderbilt	Tennessee
12	Louisiana State	Alabama
13	Alabama	Louisiana State
14	Missouri	Missouri