Monday, January 30, 2017


I am evolving the formula (very non-RPI centric) everyday, but I think this is the best cut.  It balances Top 50 wins with recent performance to avoid the following scenarios.

- A team builds good computer numbers being a punching bag (apologies to Wake Forest)
- A team gets credit for "righting the ship" (hello Oklahoma State)
- Mid-majors don't get shutout for lack of opportunities as long as they stay hot

The bracket welcomes back Miami (2 home wins, finally got the Top 50 monkey), VCU, and Oklahoma State.  Memphis gets the nod over Houston from the AAC this week, but that is tenuous at best.  Florida State's rough week normalizes their numbers back to where their perceived talent level resides.

Seton Hall, TCU, and Houston have work to do to get back into the field.  Boise State was fun while it lasted, but they could run the table and may not get back in.  Still holding in that "60s" range.

The teams enjoying a soft bubble right now include USC (they will probably ride this right into March), Michigan (ditto), Texas Tech, Rhode Island, and Minnesota (rough couple weeks, eh).

The Last Four In typically fall to the play in games, and right now that Michigan State/Oklahoma State looks freaking awesome.  Clemson, after punting the first half of their ACC schedule, will get Memphis on the 12 line.

First Four Out: Arkansas and Utah have been living here for a month now, but neither seems to be able to score a decent win.  Because I have them projected as runner-ups in their respective 1-bid conferences, East Tennessee State and Vermont profile as the next 2 best teams warranting consideration.

Next Four Out: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, TCU, Houston.  Georgia Tech's 5 Top 50 wins may be enough to push them into the field once the ACC league play boosts their computer numbers.  8 ACC wins should be enough for both them and Syracuse, which really puts the pressure on Clemson.  TCU just looks like the odd man out in a stacked Big 12... they just aren't getting the same love from the computers that K-State, OK State, and TTU are.

Apologies to: Akron (will probably replace Ohio for the autobid if they continue destroying the MAC.  BYU, who is really regretting that Utah Valley loss.  Alabama, who still sucks, but has come out of nowhere.  Georgetown and Seton Hall, who are literally a week like Marquette had from getting back in.

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