Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Updates: Missouri Valley and Conference USA

Missouri Valley
Summary: The MVC, like the MAC, has fallen on hard times.  Unlike the MAC, however, they still have some firepower at the top.  The Shockers are not going away.  Gregg keeps reloading year after year.  This year, they really needed to beat MSU, which is looking like a missed opportunity closing out Nassau with the OKST and Louisville losses.  They cannot really improve their seeding much above 6 unless they run the table.  Porter Moser has restored some semblance of hope at Loyola.  Their dedication to pace is very disruptive, but they are not quite over the hump yet.  Illinois State has the best shot at the second bid, but they have not beaten anybody yet.  They need a bid win over WSU.  Everyone else has been a varying degree of disappointment, with Drake napalming the Ray Giocoletti dumpster fire to kick off the conference slate.  The Sycamores have three OT losses to go along with a couple other 2 and 3 point losses, balancing out their Butler upset.

What I got wrong: Wyatt Lohaus’ ankle has sabotaged a return run to the tournament for Northern Iowa.  Obviously I missed heavily on Loyola, but I also thought the Salukis were much closer to contention.

Prognosis: The conference is weak enough, though, that anybody outside of Bradley and Drake can win Arch Madness as long as they can knock off the Shockers.  Given the height advantage, balance of shot takers, and general efficiency, I do not see that happening with this group.  Ronnie Rousseau’s absence may take the Bears out of contention as well, allowing the disappointing teams a chance to steal some wins. If the Redbirds make the Arch Madness Final, they are probably in, as long as they hang around 7 losses or so.

MVC
Preseason
Realtime
1
Wichita State
Wichita State
2
Northern Iowa
Illinois State
3
Southern Illinois
Loyola
4
Illinois State
Evansville
5
Missouri State
Missouri State
6
Evansville
Northern Iowa
7
Indiana State
Southern Illinois
8
Bradley
Indiana State
9
Drake
Drake
10
Loyola
Bradley

Conference USA
Summary: The conference is still pretty weak, but at least the top 4 are all capable of getting hot, and the Raiders are going to make any 5-7 seed sweat, and are certainly capable of grabbing the 12 seed play-in slot if they fail to get the automatic bid.  They continue to get wins despite giving plenty of minutes to frosh Tyrik Dixon at the point.  Jeff Jones has Old Dominion in good shape.  Getting the Stith brothers to defect has been a coup.  UAB is experiencing some unexpected growing pains.  I’d like to toot my own horn for being hot on Marshall when most had them middle of the conference.  They are electric, but may have missed the opportunities needed to get on the bubble by beating Cincinnati and/or Pittsburgh.  LA Tech is a pig with lipstick... beating up on sub 300 teams and losing to everyone else.  Rice, on the other hand, should stick with the upper half, possessing the ability to score efficiently; they need a little end of game magic.  The rest of this conference is so gawd awful that it will really mask the true talent levels of the Top 4.

What I got wrong: UAB is sloppy.  Charlotte can shoot, but they are missing what JC Washington brings to the table inside.  Mark Price will continue to make this team over with small ball, but they are a year away, at least.   UTEP and Southern Miss are amongst the worst teams in countries, UTEP without excuse.  Rick Stansbury is getting some mileage out of a senior heavy team, and the Hilltoppers are popping after a slow start.

Prognosis: Middle Tennessee remains out front, with ODU and Marshall jockeying for second.  Rice, WKU, UAB, and Louisiana Tech wrap up the top half.  The Florida schools have been abysmal and with North Texas, Texas-San Antonio, and Texas El Paso doing the state name no favors.  ODU and Marshall have the ability to make this a multi-bid league, but MTSU has to be, like, 16-2 in conference.  Not a lot of room for error.

USA
Preseason
Realtime
1
Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State
2
Old Dominion
Old Dominion
3
UAB
Marshall
4
Marshall
Rice
5
Charlotte
Western Kentucky
6
Texas El Paso
UAB
7
Rice
Louisiana Tech
8
Florida International
Charlotte
9
Louisiana Tech
Florida International
10
North Texas
North Texas
11
Southern Mississippi
Texas San Antonio
12
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic
13
Western Kentucky
Southern Mississippi
14
Texas San Antonio
Texas El Paso


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