It all balances out.
Friday night, Matt Capps was set a standard "free save" situation, bases empty to start the ninth, three run lead. He then proceeded to let four straight reach, cutting the lead to two with the bases loaded an nobody out. The Nats win probability had dropped from 95% to 50% in a matter of seconds. All seemed lost.
Matt Capps pulled a Maverick and "re-engaged" striking out two straight. A couple of the borderline calls went his way. Then, with the strike out eliminated in the form of David Eckstein, he forced the chop out to end the game. Bases loaded nobody out is almost a certain run, as few pitchers can force the 1-2-3 double play. Mat Capps took advantage of a couple of weaker hitters and a friendly strike zone and saved the day.
Sunday afternoon, he was not as fortunate. A good fastball looked to get the hometown call and extended the at bat one pitch too many. Close games, by design, will break pretty close to 50/50 over an extended sample. The best way to win baseball games is to either score a lot of runs, or give up very few runs. The Nats currently do neither of these things. They tend to play to the style of their opponent. They will chase Philly in bunches, then play small ball against the Padres. It is an interesting dynamic, but not one that will likely produce prolonged success.
So what is the Nats scheme?
Rizzo has built a staff of a bunch contact pitchers, but aside from Zimmerman and Desmond, the defense isn't above average. Riggleman wants to run, but none of his fast guys can seem to get on base. They have the reputation of being a strong offense, but from an advanced standpoint, the team relies on timely hittling from the likes of Roger Bernadina and Wil Nieves to scrap out 4-3 wins. Strasburg shows up next week, but what does he change? Sure, he'll get the strikeouts, but the well hit balls will fall and runs will still score... this isn't AA. In the end, this team really needs to find long term solutions in right field and at catcher. Jesus Flores isn't walking through that door, and Justin Maxwell may be finished as a DFA yo-yo.
In other words, Rizzo needs to stop posturing with this whole "contender" status and find a prospect with what little bait is on the line. I want to keep the Hammer more than any one of the ten readers of this blog, but what choice does the organization have?
Showing posts with label Mike Rizzo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Rizzo. Show all posts
Monday, May 31, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Guts
Rizzo pulled the trigger on the experiment gone awry and committed to the future, firing Brian Bruney after an embarrassing six weeks. Last season they rode the mountain of suck named Daniel Cabrera just as long, so it is refreshing to see management objectively evaluating their decisions and making a move.
What is really shocking is that they felt so strongly about Bruney's stink bomb that they dismissed him in the middle of the road trip, promoting Storen a week or so sooner than originally anticipated.
What is really shocking is that they felt so strongly about Bruney's stink bomb that they dismissed him in the middle of the road trip, promoting Storen a week or so sooner than originally anticipated.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
"We're Having Trouble Holding Wang Back"
That is quite alright Mr. Rizzo, because the Nats need him BAD.
The pitching staff, especially the bullpen, isn't quite coming together as well as anyone might have hoped, so the key will be to get good innings out of the starters. Strasburg will be capped for both innings and pitches when he arrives, so the bullpen will see extended action those days. Both John Lannan and Jason Marquis can go deep when they are on, but when the ball isn't staying down, they can be chased quickly as well. Then there is a host of oft-injured or AAAA guys fighting for spots... because that always works.
There is no argument; a healthy Wang would immediately be this staff's ace. A near healthy Wang would be the #3. A broken Wang does the Nats no good at all, so Rizzo is correct to monitor his Wang closely and protect his Wang from anything that would prevent him from making a full recovery. Just because he looks good now doesn't mean he will look good in June if he steers from his rehab assignments. That is what submarined his 2009.
The pitching staff, especially the bullpen, isn't quite coming together as well as anyone might have hoped, so the key will be to get good innings out of the starters. Strasburg will be capped for both innings and pitches when he arrives, so the bullpen will see extended action those days. Both John Lannan and Jason Marquis can go deep when they are on, but when the ball isn't staying down, they can be chased quickly as well. Then there is a host of oft-injured or AAAA guys fighting for spots... because that always works.
There is no argument; a healthy Wang would immediately be this staff's ace. A near healthy Wang would be the #3. A broken Wang does the Nats no good at all, so Rizzo is correct to monitor his Wang closely and protect his Wang from anything that would prevent him from making a full recovery. Just because he looks good now doesn't mean he will look good in June if he steers from his rehab assignments. That is what submarined his 2009.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Rizzo Chatting Today
I have a bachelor party to attend (yes, it starts in the morning... we here at The Bombs know how to put on a show) so I cannot hang around to post any questions. If I had the chance, here are a few (I chose not to name names):
* What changes do you feel are necessary to improve the Nationals defense at second base?
* The farm system "rescued" a poorly designed pitching staff this season. Going forward, how do you restock the AA and AAA rosters with potential major league talent?
* How do you address the rash of injuries, several preventable, that have plagued the club this season?
* Boxers or briefs?
* What will be your involvement in the managerial search?
* Will the possibility of drafting another Scott Boras client and potential "bonus-buster" affect the Nationals during free agency this year?
* Is center field solved for 2010?
* The Nationals rank dead last in strikeouts. While boring and fascist, they remain an effective method of retiring batters. How do the Nationals improve a dreadful K:BB ratio?
* Is Dr. Andrews on payroll now, or does he still just bill the club?
I tried to stay away from singling out individual players that the club may want to move, though that is the more exciting information for which to probe. Ask your questions today!
* What changes do you feel are necessary to improve the Nationals defense at second base?
* The farm system "rescued" a poorly designed pitching staff this season. Going forward, how do you restock the AA and AAA rosters with potential major league talent?
* How do you address the rash of injuries, several preventable, that have plagued the club this season?
* Boxers or briefs?
* What will be your involvement in the managerial search?
* Will the possibility of drafting another Scott Boras client and potential "bonus-buster" affect the Nationals during free agency this year?
* Is center field solved for 2010?
* The Nationals rank dead last in strikeouts. While boring and fascist, they remain an effective method of retiring batters. How do the Nationals improve a dreadful K:BB ratio?
* Is Dr. Andrews on payroll now, or does he still just bill the club?
I tried to stay away from singling out individual players that the club may want to move, though that is the more exciting information for which to probe. Ask your questions today!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
The Mole
Right now, the person on the Hot Seat more that anyone, including Jim Riggleman, has to be Head Trainer Lee Kuntz. All other retained personnel have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Steve McCatty has exceeded every expectation with a AAA rotation plus Lannan. Randy Knorr has patched and righted a brutal bullpen situation. Rick Eckstein has had hits at every position except right field. Even Riggleman has shown the Nats can be motivated to win a few games here and there.
However, the misdiagnosed injuries are piling up faster than the National Debt. First off, everybody who watched a baseball game and picked up a sports section knew Scott Olsen was hurting. The trade is obviously not Lee Kuntz's fault. Allowing Olsen to struggle on the mound for almost two months was. Olsen looked rejuvenated coming off the DL, but was quickly back on with a career threatening torn labrum. A disastrous revelation, to say the least... though the question should be posed: was the labrum already torn, or was it caused by Olsen compensating for another injury? Either way, he should NOT have been allowed to pitch at the end of June.
Next we have the tragic case of Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann jumped into the rotation in the middle of April and never looked back, burning down batters with a nasty 95 mph fastball and displaying remarkable control for a rookie. He missed a start in early June with general elbow soreness, and the blogging world was afire. All reports from the Nats was that it was nothing but precautionary measures. Flash went back out and made several more starts, including jumping spots over the All-Star break, before being skipped at the end of July for more elbow soreness. Then he was placed on the DL. Then he made a minor league start. Only then, after persistent elbow soreness for over two months, was an MRI ordered. A second and THIRD opinion concluded that Jordan needed Tommy John Surgery. How this escaped the Head Trainer for two months is a question only he can answer. Another horrible setback for a young player.
Let's change gears for a moment and consider the case of Austin Kearns. First, Kearns has not been hitting since 2007. Many explanations have been submitted, and Austin pops in with a couple nice at bats once a month. However, his production at the plate has NEVER demanded that he be in the lineup every day, even when healthy. Rather than sitting him down and working out what could be causing a two-year disaster, he kept trotting out there four or five times a week, cringing in the batter's box like a troublesome child awaiting his spanking. Of course it was revealed in AUGUST, of 2009, that he had been dealing complications from thumb surgery in 2004. In Kuntz's defense, Kearns is a bit of a lunkhead, and probably thought he was playing through just another bruise to avoid the "injury-prone" label reserved for Nick Johnson. However, this is exactly why Kuntz is retained by the Nationals, to review a player's medical history, diagnose injuries, and properly rehab them to avoid future injuries. So now Kearns will likely never play another game for the Nats again, and will struggle to get back into the league once his thumb is repaired. At least he'll get his buyout.
I noted Craig Stammen's issues beginning in late July in a blog post a couple weeks ago. They noted the mechanical differences in Stammen's delivery from early in the year and during the period in which he struggled. The post foolishly focused on the effects of the change, decreased control and more fly balls, instead of the cause. When a pitcher makes an unexpected mechanical change the cause, of course, is always pain. In this case, it was pain in the freakin' elbow, which should always trigger an alarm. The cause of the pain, revealed about six weeks after he began experiencing it, was bone spurs. It is foolhardy to believe the Head Trainer can prevent bone spurs, but he needs to be in better tune with the players and coaches who are experiencing the pain and mechanical difficulties.
Now of course the reason for this post is the news that Jesus Flores, relegated to the DL since May, has now been diagnosed with a torn labrum and will be out six months following surgery. Flores was knocked on the shoulder in the beginning of May, after which he was day-to-day with discomfort. The pain was attributed to a contusion suffered from the foul tip. No problem, that is why the Nats carry Wil. After hitting the DL with no improvement, Dr. James Andrews (whose name may as well be The Plague) was called in to diagnose where others had failed. The revised diagnosis was a stress fracture of the shoulder, a serious upgrade in severity. The timetable for recovery was set at three months, which would have put Flores set to be activated in early to mid-September, depending upon his rehab assignments. The smart money would have been to shut a young player down for the year during a lost season, allowing him extra time to rehab and report to fall ball. The Nats instead pushed ahead with a more aggressive approach, and Flores was in the lineup in September. He was then diagnosed with a torn labrum shortly after returning. The tear wasn't there in August, clearly Flores did the damage when returning to baseball activities. It is almost impossible to conclude that one injury is not related to the previous, considering they are in the exact same area. Now a simple foul ball will have kept Flores out at least eleven months. Holy crap.
This is not a witch hunt to indict Lee Kuntz in for everything from JFK to 9/11. This is strictly an assessment on the progress of five players under the age of 30 and how they are coping with injuries. Right now, the the training staff has done a poor job with these five players. I am not a doctor like Rany, so I am not pointing the finger or recommending anybody's dismissal. The team cannot keep selling this as "bad luck" though. That shit only sells so long before it begins to stink. The front office has done everything to coddle and slowly bring along these young starters with strict inning and pitch counts, and the injuries still mount. Mike Rizzo needs to come forth and conduct a thorough audit of the past two seasons (remember what Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman endured last year) and see how this rash stacks up with other teams. He has proven himself savvy in identifying talent and value on the field, and had no issue firing Bobby Williams. It is up to him to identify value and talent by keeping players off the DL as well, at that starts on the training table in DC.
Making the Nats competitive for 2010 and beyond is much more than adding a LOOGY with good ground ball numbers. Agents will not recommend their clients sign with an organization that has a history of mysterious horrible injuries. Agents make a lot of money to do what is best for their clients. It is tough to believe, but in the end, Scott Boras got his players signed. And if Strasburg promptly shreds his elbow, you can guarantee the next one will not unless it is for the moon and a time machine. The bottom line is that the credibility of the organization is at stake when it does not believe it is hiring and retaining the best personnel in the industry. Yes, it is near impossible to compete with the industry giants due to financial constraints, but teams like the Marlins and Twins prove that it can be done. The Nats cannot allow themselves to become the Clippers or Bengals of the MLB... or worse, the Royals.
However, the misdiagnosed injuries are piling up faster than the National Debt. First off, everybody who watched a baseball game and picked up a sports section knew Scott Olsen was hurting. The trade is obviously not Lee Kuntz's fault. Allowing Olsen to struggle on the mound for almost two months was. Olsen looked rejuvenated coming off the DL, but was quickly back on with a career threatening torn labrum. A disastrous revelation, to say the least... though the question should be posed: was the labrum already torn, or was it caused by Olsen compensating for another injury? Either way, he should NOT have been allowed to pitch at the end of June.
Next we have the tragic case of Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann jumped into the rotation in the middle of April and never looked back, burning down batters with a nasty 95 mph fastball and displaying remarkable control for a rookie. He missed a start in early June with general elbow soreness, and the blogging world was afire. All reports from the Nats was that it was nothing but precautionary measures. Flash went back out and made several more starts, including jumping spots over the All-Star break, before being skipped at the end of July for more elbow soreness. Then he was placed on the DL. Then he made a minor league start. Only then, after persistent elbow soreness for over two months, was an MRI ordered. A second and THIRD opinion concluded that Jordan needed Tommy John Surgery. How this escaped the Head Trainer for two months is a question only he can answer. Another horrible setback for a young player.
Let's change gears for a moment and consider the case of Austin Kearns. First, Kearns has not been hitting since 2007. Many explanations have been submitted, and Austin pops in with a couple nice at bats once a month. However, his production at the plate has NEVER demanded that he be in the lineup every day, even when healthy. Rather than sitting him down and working out what could be causing a two-year disaster, he kept trotting out there four or five times a week, cringing in the batter's box like a troublesome child awaiting his spanking. Of course it was revealed in AUGUST, of 2009, that he had been dealing complications from thumb surgery in 2004. In Kuntz's defense, Kearns is a bit of a lunkhead, and probably thought he was playing through just another bruise to avoid the "injury-prone" label reserved for Nick Johnson. However, this is exactly why Kuntz is retained by the Nationals, to review a player's medical history, diagnose injuries, and properly rehab them to avoid future injuries. So now Kearns will likely never play another game for the Nats again, and will struggle to get back into the league once his thumb is repaired. At least he'll get his buyout.
I noted Craig Stammen's issues beginning in late July in a blog post a couple weeks ago. They noted the mechanical differences in Stammen's delivery from early in the year and during the period in which he struggled. The post foolishly focused on the effects of the change, decreased control and more fly balls, instead of the cause. When a pitcher makes an unexpected mechanical change the cause, of course, is always pain. In this case, it was pain in the freakin' elbow, which should always trigger an alarm. The cause of the pain, revealed about six weeks after he began experiencing it, was bone spurs. It is foolhardy to believe the Head Trainer can prevent bone spurs, but he needs to be in better tune with the players and coaches who are experiencing the pain and mechanical difficulties.
Now of course the reason for this post is the news that Jesus Flores, relegated to the DL since May, has now been diagnosed with a torn labrum and will be out six months following surgery. Flores was knocked on the shoulder in the beginning of May, after which he was day-to-day with discomfort. The pain was attributed to a contusion suffered from the foul tip. No problem, that is why the Nats carry Wil. After hitting the DL with no improvement, Dr. James Andrews (whose name may as well be The Plague) was called in to diagnose where others had failed. The revised diagnosis was a stress fracture of the shoulder, a serious upgrade in severity. The timetable for recovery was set at three months, which would have put Flores set to be activated in early to mid-September, depending upon his rehab assignments. The smart money would have been to shut a young player down for the year during a lost season, allowing him extra time to rehab and report to fall ball. The Nats instead pushed ahead with a more aggressive approach, and Flores was in the lineup in September. He was then diagnosed with a torn labrum shortly after returning. The tear wasn't there in August, clearly Flores did the damage when returning to baseball activities. It is almost impossible to conclude that one injury is not related to the previous, considering they are in the exact same area. Now a simple foul ball will have kept Flores out at least eleven months. Holy crap.
This is not a witch hunt to indict Lee Kuntz in for everything from JFK to 9/11. This is strictly an assessment on the progress of five players under the age of 30 and how they are coping with injuries. Right now, the the training staff has done a poor job with these five players. I am not a doctor like Rany, so I am not pointing the finger or recommending anybody's dismissal. The team cannot keep selling this as "bad luck" though. That shit only sells so long before it begins to stink. The front office has done everything to coddle and slowly bring along these young starters with strict inning and pitch counts, and the injuries still mount. Mike Rizzo needs to come forth and conduct a thorough audit of the past two seasons (remember what Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman endured last year) and see how this rash stacks up with other teams. He has proven himself savvy in identifying talent and value on the field, and had no issue firing Bobby Williams. It is up to him to identify value and talent by keeping players off the DL as well, at that starts on the training table in DC.
Making the Nats competitive for 2010 and beyond is much more than adding a LOOGY with good ground ball numbers. Agents will not recommend their clients sign with an organization that has a history of mysterious horrible injuries. Agents make a lot of money to do what is best for their clients. It is tough to believe, but in the end, Scott Boras got his players signed. And if Strasburg promptly shreds his elbow, you can guarantee the next one will not unless it is for the moon and a time machine. The bottom line is that the credibility of the organization is at stake when it does not believe it is hiring and retaining the best personnel in the industry. Yes, it is near impossible to compete with the industry giants due to financial constraints, but teams like the Marlins and Twins prove that it can be done. The Nats cannot allow themselves to become the Clippers or Bengals of the MLB... or worse, the Royals.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Free Agency: Can Washington Compete
Now that the games are more or less extended "Fall Training", management should be focusing not on wins and losses at all, but how these pieces will come together for next season. Funny, Riggleman was preaching this back in July, but once the team submarined his chances at the full-time gig (which were slim at best), he defended his stance on keeping the kids on the bench.
The Nats' farm system is pretty thin, and much of it has had at least a cameo with the big club. There are holes everywhere that will have to be addressed via trade or free agency. The club landed Adam Dunn last off season for a reasonable contract, but which upper echelon free agents are going to settle on Washington? Having the number one pick in the draft consecutive years is not a resume bullet-point.
The Nats need to study and settle on three things: which type of free agent they want to pursue, how they plan to market their club to these players for 2010 and beyond, and what incentives they can offer to get these players to sign. You would think every team has a plan like this, but looking at the rosters of some of these teams, it is clear some (Jim Bowden) approach the profession with darts and rhetoric, not statistics and analysis.
Every year, teams are lauded for getting a good deal on a good free agent only to have a player who is a poor fit for the team and environment, and eventually ends up sulking the whole season (think Orlando Cabrera and Milton Bradley). Adam Dunn could have fit this profile (defensive shortcomings) had he not been a big hit with the fans. This struggle is often lost when the baseball minds do not agree with the people trying to fill the seats, and a name is signed instead of a player.
Billy Beane constructed his profile almost ten years ago, and many teams have begun to mimic his methods. The baseball landscape in 2009 is much different than in 2001. Veterans are aging in a more traditional method, players' stats bell curve more as opposed to spiking. Mike Rizzo has to identify what type of player will best fit with the team's 2010 roster and expectations. Chasing Mark Texieria, while great for appearances, would have been a disaster in both the short and long run. The Nationals would have been best committing the money to several useful players. Instead, they missed the boat on most of the good free agents.
Even once players are identified as being a good fit for the organization, whether determined by skill set, age, value, they still have to realize that the Nationals are an organization building a winning roster, and that they are not just looking for a one-year stop-gap. While those who follow the team may understand how Rizzo has changed the philosophy here in DC, the media still portrays the Nats as a bunch of wandering buffoons more adept to being on the wrong end of historic milestones. Developing a rapport with agents, who can work some magic, will be key.
Some players will not want to risk playing for a potential dud like the Nats. There are plenty of players who will consider it, but what are the incentives? The Nats will have to bargain competitively to bring in talent. Whether it is to invest an extra year into a contract, throw in a creative signing bonus or performance clause, or target higher risk guys that may not be getting a fair shot (guys coming off injuries, stuck on the bench, etc), that player needs to want to choose the Nats over 29 other teams. You don't want Julian Tavarez back.
All that stated, what are the Nats off season needs? Position by position, here we go:
1B- Adam Dunn: an attractive trading chip, but if he wasn't allowed to be moved in July, doubtful he goes anywhere by next July
2B- Cristian Guzman?*: Yeah, speculation is that he could be a candidate to shift over. Orr isn't a long-term solution, and Desmond at shortstop make the defense immensely better. Guzman moves to his right fine, and has the arm to fire from deep in the hole. It should be a sweet deal for both sides, but ego have a tendency to blow up logical situations
SS- Ian Desmond or Cristian Guzman: Orr is proving he can be a decent backup, but is probably not going to take a spot from Gonzalez. There is a need in the middle infield.
3B- Locked up till 2013
C- Jesus Flores: Hopefully 100% next season
LF- A tricky one. The Hammer will probably cost close to 6 million at arbitration. He is 30 and probably having a career year, minus the misfortunes. It will be hard to get good value for him long term, so he is likely the best trade-bait the Nats possess. I like Willingham and am glad the Nats buried Kearns to give him a real shot, but the moons really are not going to line up for him on the Nats. Possibly in the market for a corner outfielder.
CF- Nyjer Morgan: Second easiest call on the board. Just don't Juan Pierre this one.
RF- Elijah Dukes: No trade market for him, he's cheap, and he may be ready to break out after a disjointed season.
PH- Mike Morse: Can eat up a few of the spots in the field when necessary, but Rizzo traded to get his bat. Probably will never be an All-Star, but could be next year's version of Josh Willingham, sans home runs.
Bench: Wil Nieves, Alberto Gonzalez, Willie Harris, ?, ?: With Norris waiting in the wings, Bard likely becomes a solid back-up for a contender. I don't envision Maxwell making it, a much of the rest of the AAA cupboard is barren. This where the "Moneyball" teams butter their bread, finding valuable contributors and staying away from Anderson Hernandez.
There, quick and dirty, that is what the Nats should be looking for come off season: a starting caliber middle infielder, a starting left fielder, and two valuable contributors off the bench, hopefully good enough to push for playing time. The pitching staff is a quagmire for another time. Nationals Inquisition probably hits it on the head, though. In any event, enjoy the rest of the show and root for the Nats to JUST edge out the Pirates and Royals for the #1 pick.
The Nats' farm system is pretty thin, and much of it has had at least a cameo with the big club. There are holes everywhere that will have to be addressed via trade or free agency. The club landed Adam Dunn last off season for a reasonable contract, but which upper echelon free agents are going to settle on Washington? Having the number one pick in the draft consecutive years is not a resume bullet-point.
The Nats need to study and settle on three things: which type of free agent they want to pursue, how they plan to market their club to these players for 2010 and beyond, and what incentives they can offer to get these players to sign. You would think every team has a plan like this, but looking at the rosters of some of these teams, it is clear some (Jim Bowden) approach the profession with darts and rhetoric, not statistics and analysis.
Every year, teams are lauded for getting a good deal on a good free agent only to have a player who is a poor fit for the team and environment, and eventually ends up sulking the whole season (think Orlando Cabrera and Milton Bradley). Adam Dunn could have fit this profile (defensive shortcomings) had he not been a big hit with the fans. This struggle is often lost when the baseball minds do not agree with the people trying to fill the seats, and a name is signed instead of a player.
Billy Beane constructed his profile almost ten years ago, and many teams have begun to mimic his methods. The baseball landscape in 2009 is much different than in 2001. Veterans are aging in a more traditional method, players' stats bell curve more as opposed to spiking. Mike Rizzo has to identify what type of player will best fit with the team's 2010 roster and expectations. Chasing Mark Texieria, while great for appearances, would have been a disaster in both the short and long run. The Nationals would have been best committing the money to several useful players. Instead, they missed the boat on most of the good free agents.
Even once players are identified as being a good fit for the organization, whether determined by skill set, age, value, they still have to realize that the Nationals are an organization building a winning roster, and that they are not just looking for a one-year stop-gap. While those who follow the team may understand how Rizzo has changed the philosophy here in DC, the media still portrays the Nats as a bunch of wandering buffoons more adept to being on the wrong end of historic milestones. Developing a rapport with agents, who can work some magic, will be key.
Some players will not want to risk playing for a potential dud like the Nats. There are plenty of players who will consider it, but what are the incentives? The Nats will have to bargain competitively to bring in talent. Whether it is to invest an extra year into a contract, throw in a creative signing bonus or performance clause, or target higher risk guys that may not be getting a fair shot (guys coming off injuries, stuck on the bench, etc), that player needs to want to choose the Nats over 29 other teams. You don't want Julian Tavarez back.
All that stated, what are the Nats off season needs? Position by position, here we go:
1B- Adam Dunn: an attractive trading chip, but if he wasn't allowed to be moved in July, doubtful he goes anywhere by next July
2B- Cristian Guzman?*: Yeah, speculation is that he could be a candidate to shift over. Orr isn't a long-term solution, and Desmond at shortstop make the defense immensely better. Guzman moves to his right fine, and has the arm to fire from deep in the hole. It should be a sweet deal for both sides, but ego have a tendency to blow up logical situations
SS- Ian Desmond or Cristian Guzman: Orr is proving he can be a decent backup, but is probably not going to take a spot from Gonzalez. There is a need in the middle infield.
3B- Locked up till 2013
C- Jesus Flores: Hopefully 100% next season
LF- A tricky one. The Hammer will probably cost close to 6 million at arbitration. He is 30 and probably having a career year, minus the misfortunes. It will be hard to get good value for him long term, so he is likely the best trade-bait the Nats possess. I like Willingham and am glad the Nats buried Kearns to give him a real shot, but the moons really are not going to line up for him on the Nats. Possibly in the market for a corner outfielder.
CF- Nyjer Morgan: Second easiest call on the board. Just don't Juan Pierre this one.
RF- Elijah Dukes: No trade market for him, he's cheap, and he may be ready to break out after a disjointed season.
PH- Mike Morse: Can eat up a few of the spots in the field when necessary, but Rizzo traded to get his bat. Probably will never be an All-Star, but could be next year's version of Josh Willingham, sans home runs.
Bench: Wil Nieves, Alberto Gonzalez, Willie Harris, ?, ?: With Norris waiting in the wings, Bard likely becomes a solid back-up for a contender. I don't envision Maxwell making it, a much of the rest of the AAA cupboard is barren. This where the "Moneyball" teams butter their bread, finding valuable contributors and staying away from Anderson Hernandez.
There, quick and dirty, that is what the Nats should be looking for come off season: a starting caliber middle infielder, a starting left fielder, and two valuable contributors off the bench, hopefully good enough to push for playing time. The pitching staff is a quagmire for another time. Nationals Inquisition probably hits it on the head, though. In any event, enjoy the rest of the show and root for the Nats to JUST edge out the Pirates and Royals for the #1 pick.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Another False Lead...
Fortunately, the bullpen was not involved.
As you all have seen, Yahoo Sports ran with inside sources that the Nationals were to name Jerry Dipoto General Manager. I'm not linking the story for obvious reasons. This must be the same source that leaked the Acta story. Maybe Gordon Eads was fed the story had Strasburg not been signed and ran it anyway.
It's like Strasburg walked into the room, Jimmy Chitwood-style, and announced, "It's about time I started to play ball." Then he added, "If I play, GM stays. He goes, I go."
Rizzo Stays.
As you all have seen, Yahoo Sports ran with inside sources that the Nationals were to name Jerry Dipoto General Manager. I'm not linking the story for obvious reasons. This must be the same source that leaked the Acta story. Maybe Gordon Eads was fed the story had Strasburg not been signed and ran it anyway.
It's like Strasburg walked into the room, Jimmy Chitwood-style, and announced, "It's about time I started to play ball." Then he added, "If I play, GM stays. He goes, I go."
Rizzo Stays.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Why Rizzo Is Not "Rebuilding"
Mike Rizzo was recently quoted as saying that the Nats were not rebuilding. Now before we get to the punchline that you cannot rebuild what was never there, we have to remind ourselves that Mr. Rizzo is still working under the title "acting GM." As the first half of the season unfolded and Rizzo attempted to untangle the mess of the Jim Bowden era, Rizzo's fingerprint was crystal clear. He removed the dead weight from the forty-man roster, brought in young ground ball pitchers, then began improving the defense. However, none of the marquee players were touched.
Rizzo understands the value of defense and must know that Adam Dunn in left field and Cristian Guzman at short, despite their offensive numbers, will not compensate for their defensive shortcomings. These players would be the best trade bait. Every AL contender could use a bat like Dunn, and Guzman is more appealing than many teams' shortstop options. However, Rizzo isn't GM, and his boss doesn't exactly share his goals.
Stan Kasten isn't responsible for making the Nationals win. He is responsible for making the Nationals profitable. The problem is that winning and making money are not mutually exclusive. Mr. Kasten should care that the Nats have taken just four years to become the league laughingstock, but instead, he is forced to profit on that fact. Hence the fact the Nats have taken out specific ad campaigns catering to fans of opposing teams (Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles), the fact that they are only trading veterans in the final year of their contract, hoarding as many high profile players as possible, and the fact that they cannot be rebuilding.
2009 is a lost year. By admitting that the Nationals are rebuilding, that 2010 may be more of the same, will sacrifice season ticket sales, television ratings, and what little interest the public still has will quickly disappear. Kasten needs marquee players and hope to put people in the seats, not the possible myth of rebuilding. Sadly for the fans, Kasten's method works to meet the bottom line, and he will continue to put forth a team that he can sell as being a "potential winner" until he cannot sell seats and gets himself terminated.
These two differing philosophies are hamstringing the Nats. Rizzo would prefer to play .300 ball this year, .400 ball in 2010, then go for .500 in 2011 and 2012, while Kasten hopes that his current team could play better, consistently play .450 ball and threaten a run at .500 at some point. Rizzo would prefer to invest in in scouting and prospects while Kasten would prefer to go after free agents and Strasburg. Who knows for sure who pulled what string in Acta's dismissal, but more than likely somebody hoped that Riggleman would spark a resurgence.
The tragedy in all this is that by 2009 being a lost year, the Nats killed 2010 by not making a deliberate move either for or against Rizzo's plan. He probably deserves a chance to see his work through, but odds are Kasten is going to hire outside the organization and bring in new blood. The new GM will have to build within the existing framework and 2011 will be a lost year as well.
Rizzo understands the value of defense and must know that Adam Dunn in left field and Cristian Guzman at short, despite their offensive numbers, will not compensate for their defensive shortcomings. These players would be the best trade bait. Every AL contender could use a bat like Dunn, and Guzman is more appealing than many teams' shortstop options. However, Rizzo isn't GM, and his boss doesn't exactly share his goals.
Stan Kasten isn't responsible for making the Nationals win. He is responsible for making the Nationals profitable. The problem is that winning and making money are not mutually exclusive. Mr. Kasten should care that the Nats have taken just four years to become the league laughingstock, but instead, he is forced to profit on that fact. Hence the fact the Nats have taken out specific ad campaigns catering to fans of opposing teams (Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles), the fact that they are only trading veterans in the final year of their contract, hoarding as many high profile players as possible, and the fact that they cannot be rebuilding.
2009 is a lost year. By admitting that the Nationals are rebuilding, that 2010 may be more of the same, will sacrifice season ticket sales, television ratings, and what little interest the public still has will quickly disappear. Kasten needs marquee players and hope to put people in the seats, not the possible myth of rebuilding. Sadly for the fans, Kasten's method works to meet the bottom line, and he will continue to put forth a team that he can sell as being a "potential winner" until he cannot sell seats and gets himself terminated.
These two differing philosophies are hamstringing the Nats. Rizzo would prefer to play .300 ball this year, .400 ball in 2010, then go for .500 in 2011 and 2012, while Kasten hopes that his current team could play better, consistently play .450 ball and threaten a run at .500 at some point. Rizzo would prefer to invest in in scouting and prospects while Kasten would prefer to go after free agents and Strasburg. Who knows for sure who pulled what string in Acta's dismissal, but more than likely somebody hoped that Riggleman would spark a resurgence.
The tragedy in all this is that by 2009 being a lost year, the Nats killed 2010 by not making a deliberate move either for or against Rizzo's plan. He probably deserves a chance to see his work through, but odds are Kasten is going to hire outside the organization and bring in new blood. The new GM will have to build within the existing framework and 2011 will be a lost year as well.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Perception of the Nats
Ken Rosenthal sounds like he has some sour grapes over his premature exclamation in the Acta firing. That is fine, but he doesn't need to come out and rub it in everyone's face. Somewhat unprofessional. Truth be told, the Nats may have made the decision then, but maybe Rizzo or somebody stepped in and played an ultimatum that Acta should be given a month to work with a semi-functional bullpen and some young arms. He failed, and the powers that be got their wish.
Rosenthal really lays into the Nats, and whether in is brought on by his personal feelings, he makes several good points.
- The manager isn't going to look good if the players around him suck
- The front office has too many Chiefs, not enough Indians
- The lack of organizational integrity creates a void of trust
The first point is being worked upon, but the Nationals need to commit to their General Manager. The "interim" tag may be just for titling to MLB, but within the organization, they must allot Rizzo the comfort and stability of his peers. So far, Rizzo hasn't made a severe misstep, and most of his moves have been smart, well thought out, and represented immediate improvement. He should know that he is going to see this through. On the flip side, now Riggleman is "interim" status, and nobody in their right mind would commit to him without first testing the waters.
Next, given the way the Acta firing was handled, their were at least two strong opinions in the front office, maybe more, as to how and when it should be carried out. Contrary to what Rosenthal says, the firing was warranted at that time as much as any other time, and was handled as well as could have been. But given these differing opinions, apparently someone's toes got stepped on and embarrassingly a story gets leaked. The sort of crap probably happens around your office everyday. But in a field that is scrutinized by the media, blogged about by nerds such as myself, a higher level of professionalism is required. Somebody needs to swallow their pride and stop meddling in others' affairs.
The final point will be the hardest to sell. The Nats, since moving to DC, have shown little commitment to improving, winning more ballgames. Some of this can be heaped onto the deposed JB, but much of the responsibility now resides in the front office getting the players to "buy-in" and trust the scheme. However, when three weeks ago the team president is committing to a manager, then firing him, both the players and fans feel betrayed. Now each player know that the club's commitment may just be rhetoric to get a few weeks of inspired baseball before shipping them out for prospects.
For all the additional drama that surrounds the larger market teams, most of it stems from failure to meet expectations. Well, the Nats suck and the expectations are bedrock. It's time for the folks running the Nats to grow up a little and build a team. Be deliberate. If that requires trading Adam Dunn, do not tell the fans he is off the market only to have your hand forced at the deadline.
Rosenthal really lays into the Nats, and whether in is brought on by his personal feelings, he makes several good points.
- The manager isn't going to look good if the players around him suck
- The front office has too many Chiefs, not enough Indians
- The lack of organizational integrity creates a void of trust
The first point is being worked upon, but the Nationals need to commit to their General Manager. The "interim" tag may be just for titling to MLB, but within the organization, they must allot Rizzo the comfort and stability of his peers. So far, Rizzo hasn't made a severe misstep, and most of his moves have been smart, well thought out, and represented immediate improvement. He should know that he is going to see this through. On the flip side, now Riggleman is "interim" status, and nobody in their right mind would commit to him without first testing the waters.
Next, given the way the Acta firing was handled, their were at least two strong opinions in the front office, maybe more, as to how and when it should be carried out. Contrary to what Rosenthal says, the firing was warranted at that time as much as any other time, and was handled as well as could have been. But given these differing opinions, apparently someone's toes got stepped on and embarrassingly a story gets leaked. The sort of crap probably happens around your office everyday. But in a field that is scrutinized by the media, blogged about by nerds such as myself, a higher level of professionalism is required. Somebody needs to swallow their pride and stop meddling in others' affairs.
The final point will be the hardest to sell. The Nats, since moving to DC, have shown little commitment to improving, winning more ballgames. Some of this can be heaped onto the deposed JB, but much of the responsibility now resides in the front office getting the players to "buy-in" and trust the scheme. However, when three weeks ago the team president is committing to a manager, then firing him, both the players and fans feel betrayed. Now each player know that the club's commitment may just be rhetoric to get a few weeks of inspired baseball before shipping them out for prospects.
For all the additional drama that surrounds the larger market teams, most of it stems from failure to meet expectations. Well, the Nats suck and the expectations are bedrock. It's time for the folks running the Nats to grow up a little and build a team. Be deliberate. If that requires trading Adam Dunn, do not tell the fans he is off the market only to have your hand forced at the deadline.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Posts
