Who would have thought that he would be the best hitter on ANY team, major league or AAA, this season?
May JD Martin exact his own revenge on the Indians organization.
Showing posts with label Austin Kearns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Austin Kearns. Show all posts
Friday, June 11, 2010
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
The Mole
Right now, the person on the Hot Seat more that anyone, including Jim Riggleman, has to be Head Trainer Lee Kuntz. All other retained personnel have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Steve McCatty has exceeded every expectation with a AAA rotation plus Lannan. Randy Knorr has patched and righted a brutal bullpen situation. Rick Eckstein has had hits at every position except right field. Even Riggleman has shown the Nats can be motivated to win a few games here and there.
However, the misdiagnosed injuries are piling up faster than the National Debt. First off, everybody who watched a baseball game and picked up a sports section knew Scott Olsen was hurting. The trade is obviously not Lee Kuntz's fault. Allowing Olsen to struggle on the mound for almost two months was. Olsen looked rejuvenated coming off the DL, but was quickly back on with a career threatening torn labrum. A disastrous revelation, to say the least... though the question should be posed: was the labrum already torn, or was it caused by Olsen compensating for another injury? Either way, he should NOT have been allowed to pitch at the end of June.
Next we have the tragic case of Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann jumped into the rotation in the middle of April and never looked back, burning down batters with a nasty 95 mph fastball and displaying remarkable control for a rookie. He missed a start in early June with general elbow soreness, and the blogging world was afire. All reports from the Nats was that it was nothing but precautionary measures. Flash went back out and made several more starts, including jumping spots over the All-Star break, before being skipped at the end of July for more elbow soreness. Then he was placed on the DL. Then he made a minor league start. Only then, after persistent elbow soreness for over two months, was an MRI ordered. A second and THIRD opinion concluded that Jordan needed Tommy John Surgery. How this escaped the Head Trainer for two months is a question only he can answer. Another horrible setback for a young player.
Let's change gears for a moment and consider the case of Austin Kearns. First, Kearns has not been hitting since 2007. Many explanations have been submitted, and Austin pops in with a couple nice at bats once a month. However, his production at the plate has NEVER demanded that he be in the lineup every day, even when healthy. Rather than sitting him down and working out what could be causing a two-year disaster, he kept trotting out there four or five times a week, cringing in the batter's box like a troublesome child awaiting his spanking. Of course it was revealed in AUGUST, of 2009, that he had been dealing complications from thumb surgery in 2004. In Kuntz's defense, Kearns is a bit of a lunkhead, and probably thought he was playing through just another bruise to avoid the "injury-prone" label reserved for Nick Johnson. However, this is exactly why Kuntz is retained by the Nationals, to review a player's medical history, diagnose injuries, and properly rehab them to avoid future injuries. So now Kearns will likely never play another game for the Nats again, and will struggle to get back into the league once his thumb is repaired. At least he'll get his buyout.
I noted Craig Stammen's issues beginning in late July in a blog post a couple weeks ago. They noted the mechanical differences in Stammen's delivery from early in the year and during the period in which he struggled. The post foolishly focused on the effects of the change, decreased control and more fly balls, instead of the cause. When a pitcher makes an unexpected mechanical change the cause, of course, is always pain. In this case, it was pain in the freakin' elbow, which should always trigger an alarm. The cause of the pain, revealed about six weeks after he began experiencing it, was bone spurs. It is foolhardy to believe the Head Trainer can prevent bone spurs, but he needs to be in better tune with the players and coaches who are experiencing the pain and mechanical difficulties.
Now of course the reason for this post is the news that Jesus Flores, relegated to the DL since May, has now been diagnosed with a torn labrum and will be out six months following surgery. Flores was knocked on the shoulder in the beginning of May, after which he was day-to-day with discomfort. The pain was attributed to a contusion suffered from the foul tip. No problem, that is why the Nats carry Wil. After hitting the DL with no improvement, Dr. James Andrews (whose name may as well be The Plague) was called in to diagnose where others had failed. The revised diagnosis was a stress fracture of the shoulder, a serious upgrade in severity. The timetable for recovery was set at three months, which would have put Flores set to be activated in early to mid-September, depending upon his rehab assignments. The smart money would have been to shut a young player down for the year during a lost season, allowing him extra time to rehab and report to fall ball. The Nats instead pushed ahead with a more aggressive approach, and Flores was in the lineup in September. He was then diagnosed with a torn labrum shortly after returning. The tear wasn't there in August, clearly Flores did the damage when returning to baseball activities. It is almost impossible to conclude that one injury is not related to the previous, considering they are in the exact same area. Now a simple foul ball will have kept Flores out at least eleven months. Holy crap.
This is not a witch hunt to indict Lee Kuntz in for everything from JFK to 9/11. This is strictly an assessment on the progress of five players under the age of 30 and how they are coping with injuries. Right now, the the training staff has done a poor job with these five players. I am not a doctor like Rany, so I am not pointing the finger or recommending anybody's dismissal. The team cannot keep selling this as "bad luck" though. That shit only sells so long before it begins to stink. The front office has done everything to coddle and slowly bring along these young starters with strict inning and pitch counts, and the injuries still mount. Mike Rizzo needs to come forth and conduct a thorough audit of the past two seasons (remember what Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman endured last year) and see how this rash stacks up with other teams. He has proven himself savvy in identifying talent and value on the field, and had no issue firing Bobby Williams. It is up to him to identify value and talent by keeping players off the DL as well, at that starts on the training table in DC.
Making the Nats competitive for 2010 and beyond is much more than adding a LOOGY with good ground ball numbers. Agents will not recommend their clients sign with an organization that has a history of mysterious horrible injuries. Agents make a lot of money to do what is best for their clients. It is tough to believe, but in the end, Scott Boras got his players signed. And if Strasburg promptly shreds his elbow, you can guarantee the next one will not unless it is for the moon and a time machine. The bottom line is that the credibility of the organization is at stake when it does not believe it is hiring and retaining the best personnel in the industry. Yes, it is near impossible to compete with the industry giants due to financial constraints, but teams like the Marlins and Twins prove that it can be done. The Nats cannot allow themselves to become the Clippers or Bengals of the MLB... or worse, the Royals.
However, the misdiagnosed injuries are piling up faster than the National Debt. First off, everybody who watched a baseball game and picked up a sports section knew Scott Olsen was hurting. The trade is obviously not Lee Kuntz's fault. Allowing Olsen to struggle on the mound for almost two months was. Olsen looked rejuvenated coming off the DL, but was quickly back on with a career threatening torn labrum. A disastrous revelation, to say the least... though the question should be posed: was the labrum already torn, or was it caused by Olsen compensating for another injury? Either way, he should NOT have been allowed to pitch at the end of June.
Next we have the tragic case of Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann jumped into the rotation in the middle of April and never looked back, burning down batters with a nasty 95 mph fastball and displaying remarkable control for a rookie. He missed a start in early June with general elbow soreness, and the blogging world was afire. All reports from the Nats was that it was nothing but precautionary measures. Flash went back out and made several more starts, including jumping spots over the All-Star break, before being skipped at the end of July for more elbow soreness. Then he was placed on the DL. Then he made a minor league start. Only then, after persistent elbow soreness for over two months, was an MRI ordered. A second and THIRD opinion concluded that Jordan needed Tommy John Surgery. How this escaped the Head Trainer for two months is a question only he can answer. Another horrible setback for a young player.
Let's change gears for a moment and consider the case of Austin Kearns. First, Kearns has not been hitting since 2007. Many explanations have been submitted, and Austin pops in with a couple nice at bats once a month. However, his production at the plate has NEVER demanded that he be in the lineup every day, even when healthy. Rather than sitting him down and working out what could be causing a two-year disaster, he kept trotting out there four or five times a week, cringing in the batter's box like a troublesome child awaiting his spanking. Of course it was revealed in AUGUST, of 2009, that he had been dealing complications from thumb surgery in 2004. In Kuntz's defense, Kearns is a bit of a lunkhead, and probably thought he was playing through just another bruise to avoid the "injury-prone" label reserved for Nick Johnson. However, this is exactly why Kuntz is retained by the Nationals, to review a player's medical history, diagnose injuries, and properly rehab them to avoid future injuries. So now Kearns will likely never play another game for the Nats again, and will struggle to get back into the league once his thumb is repaired. At least he'll get his buyout.
I noted Craig Stammen's issues beginning in late July in a blog post a couple weeks ago. They noted the mechanical differences in Stammen's delivery from early in the year and during the period in which he struggled. The post foolishly focused on the effects of the change, decreased control and more fly balls, instead of the cause. When a pitcher makes an unexpected mechanical change the cause, of course, is always pain. In this case, it was pain in the freakin' elbow, which should always trigger an alarm. The cause of the pain, revealed about six weeks after he began experiencing it, was bone spurs. It is foolhardy to believe the Head Trainer can prevent bone spurs, but he needs to be in better tune with the players and coaches who are experiencing the pain and mechanical difficulties.
Now of course the reason for this post is the news that Jesus Flores, relegated to the DL since May, has now been diagnosed with a torn labrum and will be out six months following surgery. Flores was knocked on the shoulder in the beginning of May, after which he was day-to-day with discomfort. The pain was attributed to a contusion suffered from the foul tip. No problem, that is why the Nats carry Wil. After hitting the DL with no improvement, Dr. James Andrews (whose name may as well be The Plague) was called in to diagnose where others had failed. The revised diagnosis was a stress fracture of the shoulder, a serious upgrade in severity. The timetable for recovery was set at three months, which would have put Flores set to be activated in early to mid-September, depending upon his rehab assignments. The smart money would have been to shut a young player down for the year during a lost season, allowing him extra time to rehab and report to fall ball. The Nats instead pushed ahead with a more aggressive approach, and Flores was in the lineup in September. He was then diagnosed with a torn labrum shortly after returning. The tear wasn't there in August, clearly Flores did the damage when returning to baseball activities. It is almost impossible to conclude that one injury is not related to the previous, considering they are in the exact same area. Now a simple foul ball will have kept Flores out at least eleven months. Holy crap.
This is not a witch hunt to indict Lee Kuntz in for everything from JFK to 9/11. This is strictly an assessment on the progress of five players under the age of 30 and how they are coping with injuries. Right now, the the training staff has done a poor job with these five players. I am not a doctor like Rany, so I am not pointing the finger or recommending anybody's dismissal. The team cannot keep selling this as "bad luck" though. That shit only sells so long before it begins to stink. The front office has done everything to coddle and slowly bring along these young starters with strict inning and pitch counts, and the injuries still mount. Mike Rizzo needs to come forth and conduct a thorough audit of the past two seasons (remember what Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman endured last year) and see how this rash stacks up with other teams. He has proven himself savvy in identifying talent and value on the field, and had no issue firing Bobby Williams. It is up to him to identify value and talent by keeping players off the DL as well, at that starts on the training table in DC.
Making the Nats competitive for 2010 and beyond is much more than adding a LOOGY with good ground ball numbers. Agents will not recommend their clients sign with an organization that has a history of mysterious horrible injuries. Agents make a lot of money to do what is best for their clients. It is tough to believe, but in the end, Scott Boras got his players signed. And if Strasburg promptly shreds his elbow, you can guarantee the next one will not unless it is for the moon and a time machine. The bottom line is that the credibility of the organization is at stake when it does not believe it is hiring and retaining the best personnel in the industry. Yes, it is near impossible to compete with the industry giants due to financial constraints, but teams like the Marlins and Twins prove that it can be done. The Nats cannot allow themselves to become the Clippers or Bengals of the MLB... or worse, the Royals.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Less Depressing News
Zimmerman snapped out of his slump, Guzman is batting .467 over the last week, and Austin Kearns got a hit.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
The Nationals have made a mess out have what could have been a memorable turning point in the franchise this week with the draft. They took the Big Gun, got another first round pick signed, and despite the continued skid on the field, appeared to be playing competitively.
First, some idiot in the front office leaks news that Manny is out before anybody else seems to know what is going on. At this point, I think this guy fabricated the whole thing because he was tired of watching Manny. Now, I am looking at friggin Corey Patterson in right field. I know the Nats went from an overloaded outfield to a drained one with Willingham away and Kearns aborting his baseball career. But how in God's name did they find the one guy in AAA that is a worse hitter than Kearns? What value does he bring to the team. Patterson has been on a steady decline for the past six seasons and wasn't exactly lighting up AAA. Even his defense has steadily declined to the point that he is not noticeable more valuable than Kearns.
I don't get it... why not just send Kearns out there to either sink or swim until Willingham gets back, or promote a player that will provide a skill that Kearns doesn't, such as awesome defense or adequate hitting? Just stupid.
First, some idiot in the front office leaks news that Manny is out before anybody else seems to know what is going on. At this point, I think this guy fabricated the whole thing because he was tired of watching Manny. Now, I am looking at friggin Corey Patterson in right field. I know the Nats went from an overloaded outfield to a drained one with Willingham away and Kearns aborting his baseball career. But how in God's name did they find the one guy in AAA that is a worse hitter than Kearns? What value does he bring to the team. Patterson has been on a steady decline for the past six seasons and wasn't exactly lighting up AAA. Even his defense has steadily declined to the point that he is not noticeable more valuable than Kearns.
I don't get it... why not just send Kearns out there to either sink or swim until Willingham gets back, or promote a player that will provide a skill that Kearns doesn't, such as awesome defense or adequate hitting? Just stupid.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
8 for 12
Austin Kearns has struck out 8 of his last 12 at bats... that isn't a slump; that's a pitcher.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Austin Kearns in Centerfield?
He looked a little over-matched going for balls over his head, but this is a team that was trotting out Lastings Milledge for a while. With Dukes hamstring on the mend, I'd limit his CF time till he's 100%. And even then, Willie Harris should get the majority of the time out there.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Phillies Series Preview
Friday: Ross Detweiler vs JA Happ
Saturday: Shairon Martis vs Cole Hamels
Sunday: John Lannan vs Jamie Moyer
Just as a refresher, JA Happ is the man who came out of the bullpen two Fridays ago and with a runner on struck out Johnson, Zimmerman, and Dunn to force a 12th inning. Despite Hamels being the ace, Happ will likely be the toughest puzzle to solve. Right now, his numbers look great, but when you dig a little deeper, Happ has been a strike out pitcher at every professional level. Since moving to the majors, however, despite what he did to the heart of the Nats order, he has been absorbing more contact all the while posting a .219 BABIP. Has Happ been lucky? Possibly. Do these tactics figure to work as the Phillies move him into the rotation? Probably not. He is a lefty who has shown he can get the Nats big bats out, so it will be interesting to see how Manny sets his lineup tonight. The Phillies are absorbing a big blow losing Brett Myers, so the Nats need to make the most of this opportunity to exact some revenge.
After a shaky start, Hamels looks to be rounding back into frontline form. Another lefty will give Manny more decisions to make with the lineup. The key will be to get his pitch count up early and have him out of the game by the sixth. Happ probably won't go too deep, so getting to their bullpen two straight days will create some opportunities against the likes Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. A third straight lefty will follow Sunday with Jamie Moyer, who has really struggled this year with the Medicare cuts. He has always skated by with low K rates, but now his command is a little off and teams are crushing him.
Getting Jesus Flores back will definitely help, and we know what to expect from the top four slots in the batting order. Willingham should get a decent audition this weekend, and Dunn will probably move to first for a game to get Kearns some swings. Honestly, if Kearns cannot get going against these lefties, it may be time to eat the contract... Rizzo does get tired of watching people.
As far as the Nats starters go, continue throwing strikes! The Phils are going to get their runs with the loaded middle of their lineup, but it's best to avoid big innings by walking guys who a are struggling, like Rollins and Victorino. Once again, the Nats cannot spot their opponent two to four runs in the first inning, as they have been often this season.
The best thing going for the Nats this series is that it cannot possibly be as bad as their last stand against Philly. There are only three opportunities to blow it this time. And what are the odds Martis stays perfect? I vote good... just a hunch.
Saturday: Shairon Martis vs Cole Hamels
Sunday: John Lannan vs Jamie Moyer
Just as a refresher, JA Happ is the man who came out of the bullpen two Fridays ago and with a runner on struck out Johnson, Zimmerman, and Dunn to force a 12th inning. Despite Hamels being the ace, Happ will likely be the toughest puzzle to solve. Right now, his numbers look great, but when you dig a little deeper, Happ has been a strike out pitcher at every professional level. Since moving to the majors, however, despite what he did to the heart of the Nats order, he has been absorbing more contact all the while posting a .219 BABIP. Has Happ been lucky? Possibly. Do these tactics figure to work as the Phillies move him into the rotation? Probably not. He is a lefty who has shown he can get the Nats big bats out, so it will be interesting to see how Manny sets his lineup tonight. The Phillies are absorbing a big blow losing Brett Myers, so the Nats need to make the most of this opportunity to exact some revenge.
After a shaky start, Hamels looks to be rounding back into frontline form. Another lefty will give Manny more decisions to make with the lineup. The key will be to get his pitch count up early and have him out of the game by the sixth. Happ probably won't go too deep, so getting to their bullpen two straight days will create some opportunities against the likes Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. A third straight lefty will follow Sunday with Jamie Moyer, who has really struggled this year with the Medicare cuts. He has always skated by with low K rates, but now his command is a little off and teams are crushing him.
Getting Jesus Flores back will definitely help, and we know what to expect from the top four slots in the batting order. Willingham should get a decent audition this weekend, and Dunn will probably move to first for a game to get Kearns some swings. Honestly, if Kearns cannot get going against these lefties, it may be time to eat the contract... Rizzo does get tired of watching people.
As far as the Nats starters go, continue throwing strikes! The Phils are going to get their runs with the loaded middle of their lineup, but it's best to avoid big innings by walking guys who a are struggling, like Rollins and Victorino. Once again, the Nats cannot spot their opponent two to four runs in the first inning, as they have been often this season.
The best thing going for the Nats this series is that it cannot possibly be as bad as their last stand against Philly. There are only three opportunities to blow it this time. And what are the odds Martis stays perfect? I vote good... just a hunch.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Wine Tasting Over the Weekend...
But did catch some baseball.
The Craig Stammen report. You gotta love that the coaches have the young guys going out and attacking batters. Detweiler did it, and then Stammen did it. The bad news is that at no point did he look dominating. He was on cruise control the first two time through the lineup, but once he dropped that walk to McLouth, the cloak of invincibility was off and the Pirates were locked in. Having these young guys going after hitters is the best thing the organization can do as it will separate the major league guys from the AAA and AAAA guys. In the long run, Stammen may turn out to be one of those AAAA guys who can dominate the International League, but may not have pure stuff to get guys out in the strike zone. However, it was fun watching the Pirates earn their lead, and better to watch the Nats battle back with some small-ball and close one out. The rest of the weekend wasn't quite as good. The team refuses to let Martis lose, so they do have that going for them... which is nice.
So far, the Elijah Dukes injury has illuminated a few things. First, he has arrived as a solid middle-of-the-order threat and the Nationals offensive slump corresponds to when he went on the DL. Second, he flat out should not be allowed near centerfield except under the most dire circumstances, as there are no quick fixes for the defensive woes the team faces. Having him out there certainly improves the offense, although Willie Harris has been better than expected again this year. Dukes makes some dunder-headed plays in the field and on the base paths, but generally brings more things to the table than he takes off. The same cannot really be said for Kearns anymore. 5 for 44? That is not a slump... that is a catastrophe.
The offense will start clicking again once Dukes and Flores come off the DL, but due to the continued defensive liabilities presented by the configured roster.
Quick note: is it just me, or does Kearns stand too far from the plate? He doesn't identify pitches on the outer half of the plate at all.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?
I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.
The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).
Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.
Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.
It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.
If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.
There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.
A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.
The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).
Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.
Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.
It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.
If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.
There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.
A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.
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