Just Because Dibble Isn't on the Air Doesn't Mean He Isn't Right

The last week has been unfortunate. What started out as sore flexor tendon (a bowling injury I rolled through last year) was reassessed and will require Tommy John surgery. What started out as an aggressive, somewhat misinformed pep talk digressed into "Suck it up, bitch!"

Yeah, Rob Dibble has been straddling the blade this month, first with the women, now with The Franchise. The former was Dibble's character coming through, and he was rightly raked over the coals for that. However, his initial response watching Strasburg was quite well informed from the perspective of the player. Pitchers are paid to pitch. Not throw side sessions and long toss. Pitchers will occasionally pitch through pain, because that is what they are paid to do. Pitchers will ultimately get seriously injured because the slightest mechanical flaw will cause the UCL to fray and unravel faster than a cheap sweater. This is inevitable. The superior pitching Strasburg's mechanics generate also make him extremely vulnerable to these injuries. The why was never in question, just the when.

Rob Dibble is paid to give his opinion as a former player. He is not a doctor. Stephen Strasburg is paid to pitch. He is not a doctor. Steve McCatty has been there and done that as a pitcher, and is a victim of some historical pitcher abuse. His experience may be of value, but is not a doctor and certainly couldn't adjust Strasburg's mechanics without risking additional injury. The point of Dibble's argument, pitch until you can't pitch anymore, is how players think. Whether or not that is a complete game shutout or getting chased in the third because the other team is taking batting practice is irrelevant. A player of Strasburg's caliber should be expected to get as many batters out during the duration of his contract. Coddling and babying that right arm may give Nationals management piece of mind that they did everything in their power to protect their investment, but it doesn't mean that it will get the most, or even best, production. Dibble's beef really isn't so much with Strasburg, who is following orders after the debacles with Scott Olsen, Jordan Zimmermann, and Craig Stammen last season. The elbow broke down anyways and everyone is devastated.

It is nobody's fault. He had never complained of elbow problems before, so it is not like the trainers could have diagnosed the problem Pre-cog style. Personally, I want Dibble back in the booth. Sure, he is a dick and runs the mouth a little much, but who can blame him. He is the color commentator for a team that lost 102 and 103 games in back to back seasons and is limping through another losing campaign. It is not easy provide daily feedback for a team with no history and a miniscule viewing base. Even George, the "Wil Nieves" guy, didn't renew his season tickets. He has little to work with in terms of product his "love him or hate him" personality is the only thing that gives the broadcast any flavor. And his player's reaction to Strasburg was not unexpected... ignorant and foolish, yes... wrong? Not in this context. The viral nature by which most people received it took it out of context and made it sound like he was calling the player out. Dibble, unlike everyone in America, doesn't want Strasburg on the mound, but needs him on the mound. And by enacting the players' mentality, pitchers pitch until they can't anymore, he was calling out management for using the "kid gloves" for far too long. If Strasburg ended up fine and making his next start, nobody would be talking about it anymore.

But this is all now days in the past. If MASN parts ways with him, that is between them and the team. It's probably a mistake, as nobody is really watching anyways, though Bob Carpenter will probably sleep better at night.

As for what to expect from Strasburg, I think his case is a little different than Jordan Zimmermann's, who has been a model Tommy John recovery patient. With his mechanics, it will take him longer to relearn the touch that makes him dominant. I believe Strasburg's situation is very similar to the process Francisco Liriano has endured in his recovery. Both have fierce fastballs and breaking stuff that is the product of violent mechanics. Liriano was hurt at the end of 2006 and rehabbed all 2007. The Twins let him spend most of 2008 in the minors, rebuilding strength. 2009, he spent almost the whole season with the major league club, and the AL took batting practice off of him. Many people saw the increased home run and walk rates and reduced strikeouts and assumed he was done. However, in 2010, he has been one of the most valuable pitchers in all of baseball.

Every pitcher is different, and given the success rate of the surgery these days, the Liriano example is only a cautionary tale to fans that it isn't an overnight process. Many experts didn't expect J Zimm back so soon, and his return gives everyone hope for 2012.

As for Dibble, I'm laying off... his job is hard enough without being under the microscope now.

Boy, That Escalated Quickly

First, great job by the front office getting players signed. Sure, everyone wishes that this process didn't drag out until the last minute, but that really does play to both sides best interests. The player gets the same money (possibly more) and doesn't accept the additional risk of pitching more innings after a full prep season. The team wins because a shortened negotiating window allows them to hold all the chips and make a convincing bid (Robbie Ray), unless the player REALLY wants to go back to school.

Speaking of escalating quickly, has anybody gone from "completely in control" to "Oh shit" as quickly as Scott Olsen tonight? Despite the start going down as a loss, it looks like Olsen, unlike Marquis, is probably back as healthy as he will be and snagged a rotation spot for the remainder of the year.

Paging Jordan Zimmermann...

The Mole

Right now, the person on the Hot Seat more that anyone, including Jim Riggleman, has to be Head Trainer Lee Kuntz. All other retained personnel have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Steve McCatty has exceeded every expectation with a AAA rotation plus Lannan. Randy Knorr has patched and righted a brutal bullpen situation. Rick Eckstein has had hits at every position except right field. Even Riggleman has shown the Nats can be motivated to win a few games here and there.

However, the misdiagnosed injuries are piling up faster than the National Debt. First off, everybody who watched a baseball game and picked up a sports section knew Scott Olsen was hurting. The trade is obviously not Lee Kuntz's fault. Allowing Olsen to struggle on the mound for almost two months was. Olsen looked rejuvenated coming off the DL, but was quickly back on with a career threatening torn labrum. A disastrous revelation, to say the least... though the question should be posed: was the labrum already torn, or was it caused by Olsen compensating for another injury? Either way, he should NOT have been allowed to pitch at the end of June.

Next we have the tragic case of Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann jumped into the rotation in the middle of April and never looked back, burning down batters with a nasty 95 mph fastball and displaying remarkable control for a rookie. He missed a start in early June with general elbow soreness, and the blogging world was afire. All reports from the Nats was that it was nothing but precautionary measures. Flash went back out and made several more starts, including jumping spots over the All-Star break, before being skipped at the end of July for more elbow soreness. Then he was placed on the DL. Then he made a minor league start. Only then, after persistent elbow soreness for over two months, was an MRI ordered. A second and THIRD opinion concluded that Jordan needed Tommy John Surgery. How this escaped the Head Trainer for two months is a question only he can answer. Another horrible setback for a young player.

Let's change gears for a moment and consider the case of Austin Kearns. First, Kearns has not been hitting since 2007. Many explanations have been submitted, and Austin pops in with a couple nice at bats once a month. However, his production at the plate has NEVER demanded that he be in the lineup every day, even when healthy. Rather than sitting him down and working out what could be causing a two-year disaster, he kept trotting out there four or five times a week, cringing in the batter's box like a troublesome child awaiting his spanking. Of course it was revealed in AUGUST, of 2009, that he had been dealing complications from thumb surgery in 2004. In Kuntz's defense, Kearns is a bit of a lunkhead, and probably thought he was playing through just another bruise to avoid the "injury-prone" label reserved for Nick Johnson. However, this is exactly why Kuntz is retained by the Nationals, to review a player's medical history, diagnose injuries, and properly rehab them to avoid future injuries. So now Kearns will likely never play another game for the Nats again, and will struggle to get back into the league once his thumb is repaired. At least he'll get his buyout.

I noted Craig Stammen's issues beginning in late July in a blog post a couple weeks ago. They noted the mechanical differences in Stammen's delivery from early in the year and during the period in which he struggled. The post foolishly focused on the effects of the change, decreased control and more fly balls, instead of the cause. When a pitcher makes an unexpected mechanical change the cause, of course, is always pain. In this case, it was pain in the freakin' elbow, which should always trigger an alarm. The cause of the pain, revealed about six weeks after he began experiencing it, was bone spurs. It is foolhardy to believe the Head Trainer can prevent bone spurs, but he needs to be in better tune with the players and coaches who are experiencing the pain and mechanical difficulties.

Now of course the reason for this post is the news that Jesus Flores, relegated to the DL since May, has now been diagnosed with a torn labrum and will be out six months following surgery. Flores was knocked on the shoulder in the beginning of May, after which he was day-to-day with discomfort. The pain was attributed to a contusion suffered from the foul tip. No problem, that is why the Nats carry Wil. After hitting the DL with no improvement, Dr. James Andrews (whose name may as well be The Plague) was called in to diagnose where others had failed. The revised diagnosis was a stress fracture of the shoulder, a serious upgrade in severity. The timetable for recovery was set at three months, which would have put Flores set to be activated in early to mid-September, depending upon his rehab assignments. The smart money would have been to shut a young player down for the year during a lost season, allowing him extra time to rehab and report to fall ball. The Nats instead pushed ahead with a more aggressive approach, and Flores was in the lineup in September. He was then diagnosed with a torn labrum shortly after returning. The tear wasn't there in August, clearly Flores did the damage when returning to baseball activities. It is almost impossible to conclude that one injury is not related to the previous, considering they are in the exact same area. Now a simple foul ball will have kept Flores out at least eleven months. Holy crap.

This is not a witch hunt to indict Lee Kuntz in for everything from JFK to 9/11. This is strictly an assessment on the progress of five players under the age of 30 and how they are coping with injuries. Right now, the the training staff has done a poor job with these five players. I am not a doctor like Rany, so I am not pointing the finger or recommending anybody's dismissal. The team cannot keep selling this as "bad luck" though. That shit only sells so long before it begins to stink. The front office has done everything to coddle and slowly bring along these young starters with strict inning and pitch counts, and the injuries still mount. Mike Rizzo needs to come forth and conduct a thorough audit of the past two seasons (remember what Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman endured last year) and see how this rash stacks up with other teams. He has proven himself savvy in identifying talent and value on the field, and had no issue firing Bobby Williams. It is up to him to identify value and talent by keeping players off the DL as well, at that starts on the training table in DC.

Making the Nats competitive for 2010 and beyond is much more than adding a LOOGY with good ground ball numbers. Agents will not recommend their clients sign with an organization that has a history of mysterious horrible injuries. Agents make a lot of money to do what is best for their clients. It is tough to believe, but in the end, Scott Boras got his players signed. And if Strasburg promptly shreds his elbow, you can guarantee the next one will not unless it is for the moon and a time machine. The bottom line is that the credibility of the organization is at stake when it does not believe it is hiring and retaining the best personnel in the industry. Yes, it is near impossible to compete with the industry giants due to financial constraints, but teams like the Marlins and Twins prove that it can be done. The Nats cannot allow themselves to become the Clippers or Bengals of the MLB... or worse, the Royals.

Tommy John's Legacy

Here are a couple links to familiarize yourself with the road Jordan Zimmermann will now face.

USAToday

The Good Point

One of my favorite pitchers, Tim Hudson, underwent TJ last August. He began his minor league rehab assignment in July and has been deemed ready to go (though with Tommy Hanson dominating, there isn't an opening in the rotation), so it is not out of the question to see Flash next year. A successful operation will have him at 100% for 2011, though.

Every Player is His Own Entitiy

I hate how people say that Jordan Zimmermann's tragic MRI diagnosis is going to give Scott Boras additional leverage going into the final week of negotiations. Stephen Strasburg's desire to play major league baseball in 2010 has nothing to with the amount of damage to Flash's ulnar collateral ligament. Jordan Zimmermann is not a party to these negotiations, nor is Dr. James Andrews.

The only parties that really have any bearing in these talks are Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, and Lerner, Inc. And you have to give Kasten credit for keeping it that way, leaving the media and the blogosphere in the dark.

What may impact the Strasburg signing is Washington's decision to waive and keep Cristian Guzman's 2010 salary. Cristian Guzman and his limited defense are not impacting these negotiations, just the money committed to him.

Remember, Stephen Strasburg had a year of college eligibility left. He chose to leave to cash in on his maximum value. He does himself no good turning down the Nationals to play Independent ball. I think Scott Boras may be selling his prowess of moving Luke Hochevar up from the #40 pick with the Dodgers to KC taking him #1 the following year (a comically stupid move by KC, but hey, I guess they got their guy). While Hochevar has not been a bust yet, he is still barely league average, and by losing a year of his career to stay out of ML ball, he upped his offer from 3 to 5 million. The only way this amount of money makes any impact to the lifetime earnings of a major league pitcher is if he never makes it to arbitration. A league average pitcher, like Scott Olsen, will make close to 3 million at arbitration. By not holding out, he reaches this threshold sooner, reaches free agency sooner, and extends his career one extra season. If Adam Eaton can cash out a 3 year 24 million dollar contract, any league average free agent can grab 5 million here and there, and last I checked, 5 million is greater than 2 million.

If Strasburg signs, barring injury, he will have his free agent clock ticking on May 1st. The Nats have no reason to keep him off the roster as he will sell tickets. If he lands somewhere else, that remains up in the air. The big bonus is great, but holding out for a bigger one only pays off if the pitcher doesn't make the bigs.

Pitching With Pace (Part 1 of ?)

After watching Jordan Zimmermann come uncorked Sunday after six solid innings, I began to wonder whether or not the pace of the game takes more of an effect on the pitcher than managers realize. Pitch counts are treated as the “end-all be-all” and enthusiasts will harp over year-by-year inning escalations burdened upon young pitchers. Both these quantitative statistics have their time and place, but even pitchers who hit these guidelines develop control problems, dead arms, and eventually injuries. Scott Olsen is likely a prime example.

On Sunday, Jordan Zimmermann was on fire through five innings, eliminating the Astros like they were a AAA lineup. In the top of the sixth, he sat on the bench for several minutes while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score. He cruised through the meat of the Astros order in the sixth. In the seventh, he bunted his turn at the plate, then watched while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score*. When he returned in the seventh, the bottom fell out. Hit by pitch, single, strikeout (though the way Pudge was swinging the bat, Daniel Cabrera may have gotten him chasing a pitch into the dugout), the Matsui homerun, and finally walking the pitcher on four pitches.

* I added the phrase "while the Nats hitters loaded the bases and failed to score." as a shortcut... let's hope that it is wasted.

Most people would immediately jump on the pitch count and inning. Zimmermann was pulled at 102 pitches into the seventh inning. Not a bad start overall, if you glance at the box score, but having seen the first six innings of dominance, the line doesn’t make sense. The innings and pitch count were not the factor that killed his stuff. He started the inning with a pitch count in the low 80s, and has regularly thrown over 100 pitches with no ill effects. The fatigue that caught up to him was not in his arm. The first five innings were played in just over an hour and fifteen minutes. The final three and a half innings took and hour forty five.

Trek back to Zimmermann’s start against Boston. The Nats bombed the Sox 9-3, a game that featured some runs, but few long innings after the first. Zimmermann was out of the game for a pinch hitter in two hours, have torn off seven innings with five singles and a walk. He threw 109 pitches and his stuff was not waning. The key was that the pace of the game did not allow him to get mentally fatigued waiting out a 3+ hour game. The variable the Nationals players and coaches control is the time between pitches, which if accelerated to a point where the pitcher remains comfortable, can shorten the game. And while there is a good solution to the dilemma of a hot pitcher sitting on the bench while his team bats around the order, it is up to the manager be able to assess the situation before batters start getting hit and the ball winds up in the stands.

The question now is how much of a correlation can be found within this data? Craig Stammen has had more success going deeper into games recently. Is he pitching with more pace between pitches? A quick glance at game logs may not be able to prove anything, so we may have to go to the video… Where’s George Michael’s Sports Machine when you need it?

Lowered Expectations... Not That It Is Possible

A tidbit from Marc Hulet at FanGraphs:

The only players that have made it to the Majors who were taken between the second and fifth round of the 2007 draft are Rzepczynski, Jordan Zimmermann (2nd round, Washington), Jess Todd (2nd round, St. Louis) and Brad Mills (4th round, Toronto).

The big problem I had with J-Zimm early on is that he seemed to start slow, getting knocked around in the first inning. Aside from this last start in Colorado, he seems to have picked up some consistency, as seen in the five starts prior to Coors. A quick summary: 29.2 IP (an out under 6 IP per start), 2.12 ERA (no unearned runs, either), 28 K, 7 BB, 1 HR allowed.

The Nats are extracting first round talent from him, but have to remember that he probably should have been working out the kinks in AAA this year. Same with Detwiler, he struggled in A-ball last year, but suddenly is expected to be anchoring the big club in hostile environments. Seeing Manny Acta bitch about his inability to throw his breaking pitches makes wonder whether or not he understands the psyche of these young guys. He should be working on this stuff against AA slugs and AAA retreads. J-Zimm too.

Lay off the negativity and accept the fact that these guys should win one out of three. And truth be told, the Nats out played the Rocks for the first 16 innings of that series and came away with zero wins... that isn't a reflection on those two pitchers.

Another Rough First Inning for J. Zimm

As pointed out previously, Jordan Zimmermann is being beaten like a rented National in the first inning of his starts. Another two runs last night puts his first inning ERA at a sterling 18.00. This is clearly not a reflection of his ability, as over the the course of the game, he gave up just one more earned run (runs scored off umpire errors are not earned) and finished with eight strikeouts. The kid has talent... there is just an epic fail at some point between 4 pm and 7 pm the day of his starts that leaves him completely unprepared.

A competent pitching coach would have addressed this by now, weaned him off the Red Bull or whatever, but instead, the Nats management has decided spotting the other team two runs makes the game more exciting.

Seriously... what are the chances that the umpires could possibly blow two home run calls in three games even with the benefit of instant replay? I really wouldn't allow Dibble around that crew anytime soon.

J. Zimm is Showing Some Tendencies

Here is Jordan Zimmermann's inning by inning breakdown in his first 6 starts. I only covered the first five innings of each start, as often he is pulled before or during the 6th.

1: 19.50
2. 0.00
3. 0.00
4. 13.50
5. 0.00

I'm not even sure how to interpret this information. I have never seen anything like this before, though it likely happens all the time. Rookie pitchers sometimes have early success because opponents do not have much scouting information on them. Familiarity with a pitcher's stuff and habits does make a difference. However, this pattern doesn't fall into that category. Young players may get amped up before the game and that may affect their performance.

Whatever the case, somebody should be sitting down with the kid and getting his head straight so he doesn't continue to spot the opponent two freebies each game. The problem is clearly not his arm or his stuff.

Who's the ringmaster of this circus... I forget.

Dibble's Comment on "Quality starts"

Rob Dibble talks out his ass for a few minutes out of each telecast, but it really what they pay him to do. And it is better that the team's color guy is a straight shooter than somebody who gushes over everybody and everything. He did make an interesting point about how MLB defines quality starts.

A quality start is defined when a starting pitcher pitches at least 6 innings and gives up 3 or fewer earned runs. He then went on to state his case that Jordan Zimmerman, despite his first inning struggle, made a quality start and got his team back in the game. Sorry Rob, just like how MLB defines wins, saves, etc., you can't argue quality starts... or any statistic for that matter. But the fact is, once he served up those balls for Kemp and Blake, he retired 16 of 19 batters, and even threw a double play ball in there to quell a rally in the 6th. Six runs is not insurmountable, and by working several quick innings, he lulled the Dodgers to sleep, and once Wolf was off the hill, the Nats' bats woke up. Even the ball Kemp hit out wasn't a bad pitch, low and away; Kemp is a beast and will occasionally do that.

The Nats are now 8-11-1 since sending Milledge down, with that 1 being in good shape to add to the 8 in a few months.

Dibble made one other observation about Angel Campos tightening up the strike zone once the game got close. I doubt it was a conscious decision, and I disagree with Dibble's assessment; the strike zone was fine later in the game. Some umpires will call a blowout more liberally just to keep the game moving, prevent tempers from flaring. It plays to the advantage of the pitchers, and the Dodgers relievers didn't seem to take advantage of the edges of the plate.

Good win... now let's dump all this steroid talk in LA for some old fashioned managerial turmoil in the desert. AJ Hinch is a smart guy. Oakland pitchers used to lobby Art Howe to get him behind the plate even though he couldn't hit a lick. Once the Big Three came up, they worked exclusively with Ramon Hernandez and Rick Peterson, and Hinch's baseball IQ was expendable. Should be an interesting series.

Turn the Page

As expected, Cabrera laid an 85 pitch wet fart last night, walking five and striking out one, all the while keeping his Houdini act alive until the 6th inning. The two runs he surrendered in the first five could have easily been more, if not for some fortune, with two double plays and a few line outs. Even ManRam only went 0-2 with a walk. In the sixth, he did exact what he had been doing all night, putting runners on, but Manny yanked him this time and all hell broke loose.

But with every bomb Cabrera lays, at least until they DFA him, hope will follow in the form of Jordan Zimmerman and Shairon Martis. Zimmerman has basically been the anit-Cabrera everywhere he has pitched in the Nats organization, pitching hard and efficiently with roughly a 4:1 K:BB ratio. He wins games, too, which is a plus. Martis' decision to skip the WBC looks to have jump-started his major league career, and he is coming off the first Nationals' complete game pitched at the new park. Yes, he made history Saturday. He doesn't have the best pure stuff, but he is a competitor and seems to be figuring things out as the season progresses.

Hopefully Zimmerman steps in with some history of his own tonight, breaking the Dodgers' streak.

The Prologue...

First point of emphasis with this blog is that I should divulge that I am not a Washington Nationals fan. I am, in fact, a die hard Oakland Athletics fan, as well as an accomplished Yankee-hater. I have also invaded, raped, and pillaged the countryside of Red Sox Nation.

My reason for blogging the Nationals, amongst other outlets, is several-fold. First and foremost, baseball is my vice. I love college basketball and football (both varieties- let’s not get into that) as well, but baseball can be followed in so many different ways. Piles upon piles of Baseball Weekly would find their way stuffed into my room; when I moved away for school, they were the first to make their way to the recycling, followed shortly thereafter by Sport Illustrated 1987 through 1996. USA Today was readily available in college, and box scores would often be trimmed and pasted all over the place for no reason whatsoever. Fortunately, the Internet was invented, allowing me to wash the print from my hands and occasionally talk to a girl. Usually, it would be brief.

Second, it is almost impossible for me to effectively offer thoughtful and original analysis on the A’s, as all of my information comes from Susan Slusser, box scores at 7 am, and the occasional highlight off ESPN. The Nationals are here, their games are televised, and they even have uniforms and everything… it’s really neat. And apparently there are plenty of good seats available.

Next, my fiancé no longer likes being at the end of all my jokes, and the Nats are fairly easy targets… uh, let’s just move on.

Finally, it would be nice to be a part of their success. Right now, the Nats bandwagon looks like it just made a detour through Mexico. Sure, people “support” the team, but since the new stadium opened, so many of the casual fans were priced out the door, and the honeymoon looks over. I was excited when Washington was able to outbid premium franchise destinations such as San Juan, Monterrey, Las Vegas, and Branson Missouri, and even organized the legendary “F- the French, We Are Taking the Expos Back” bar crawl that may or may not have forced the rebranding of Biddy Mulligan’s as Bar Dupont. There were a lot of excited folks, and when they raced out of the gates in 2005, I suddenly felt dirty, as if I had stolen someone else’s prized pig and won the County Fair. The bandwagon mentality wasn’t for me or my Hubie Brooks Expos jersey. Then, Jim Bowden and the Lerners struck. You have thought that they would have been able to improve the condition of the franchise and its major league product over its previous owners, NOBODY. However, 59-102 apparently wasn’t rock-bottom enough, so they came back with an encore. At 4-15 last week, I felt that it was time to intervene.

Basically, the Nats need a bailout in the worst way, and here is my bucket. Actually, we’ll probably need that bucket temporarily as 1-3 inches more of rain is in the forecast. Use of the bucket comes with a few provisions and disclaimers:

1. No one is off limits. This includes Zimmerman (both of em), Dukes, Manny, Stan, the batboy, Teddy, and yes, even all those fans disguised as empty seats.
2. For every ill-fated barb or attempt at humor, some sort of constructive criticism or praise will be provided.
3. I will not be made fun of for applying for the open General Manager position.
4. Not all posts will pertain strictly to National’s baseball. Some will be in regards to Natinals baseball.
5. Most posts will be written sans pants.

That is all I ask in return for this bucket.