Just Because Dibble Isn't on the Air Doesn't Mean He Isn't Right

The last week has been unfortunate. What started out as sore flexor tendon (a bowling injury I rolled through last year) was reassessed and will require Tommy John surgery. What started out as an aggressive, somewhat misinformed pep talk digressed into "Suck it up, bitch!"

Yeah, Rob Dibble has been straddling the blade this month, first with the women, now with The Franchise. The former was Dibble's character coming through, and he was rightly raked over the coals for that. However, his initial response watching Strasburg was quite well informed from the perspective of the player. Pitchers are paid to pitch. Not throw side sessions and long toss. Pitchers will occasionally pitch through pain, because that is what they are paid to do. Pitchers will ultimately get seriously injured because the slightest mechanical flaw will cause the UCL to fray and unravel faster than a cheap sweater. This is inevitable. The superior pitching Strasburg's mechanics generate also make him extremely vulnerable to these injuries. The why was never in question, just the when.

Rob Dibble is paid to give his opinion as a former player. He is not a doctor. Stephen Strasburg is paid to pitch. He is not a doctor. Steve McCatty has been there and done that as a pitcher, and is a victim of some historical pitcher abuse. His experience may be of value, but is not a doctor and certainly couldn't adjust Strasburg's mechanics without risking additional injury. The point of Dibble's argument, pitch until you can't pitch anymore, is how players think. Whether or not that is a complete game shutout or getting chased in the third because the other team is taking batting practice is irrelevant. A player of Strasburg's caliber should be expected to get as many batters out during the duration of his contract. Coddling and babying that right arm may give Nationals management piece of mind that they did everything in their power to protect their investment, but it doesn't mean that it will get the most, or even best, production. Dibble's beef really isn't so much with Strasburg, who is following orders after the debacles with Scott Olsen, Jordan Zimmermann, and Craig Stammen last season. The elbow broke down anyways and everyone is devastated.

It is nobody's fault. He had never complained of elbow problems before, so it is not like the trainers could have diagnosed the problem Pre-cog style. Personally, I want Dibble back in the booth. Sure, he is a dick and runs the mouth a little much, but who can blame him. He is the color commentator for a team that lost 102 and 103 games in back to back seasons and is limping through another losing campaign. It is not easy provide daily feedback for a team with no history and a miniscule viewing base. Even George, the "Wil Nieves" guy, didn't renew his season tickets. He has little to work with in terms of product his "love him or hate him" personality is the only thing that gives the broadcast any flavor. And his player's reaction to Strasburg was not unexpected... ignorant and foolish, yes... wrong? Not in this context. The viral nature by which most people received it took it out of context and made it sound like he was calling the player out. Dibble, unlike everyone in America, doesn't want Strasburg on the mound, but needs him on the mound. And by enacting the players' mentality, pitchers pitch until they can't anymore, he was calling out management for using the "kid gloves" for far too long. If Strasburg ended up fine and making his next start, nobody would be talking about it anymore.

But this is all now days in the past. If MASN parts ways with him, that is between them and the team. It's probably a mistake, as nobody is really watching anyways, though Bob Carpenter will probably sleep better at night.

As for what to expect from Strasburg, I think his case is a little different than Jordan Zimmermann's, who has been a model Tommy John recovery patient. With his mechanics, it will take him longer to relearn the touch that makes him dominant. I believe Strasburg's situation is very similar to the process Francisco Liriano has endured in his recovery. Both have fierce fastballs and breaking stuff that is the product of violent mechanics. Liriano was hurt at the end of 2006 and rehabbed all 2007. The Twins let him spend most of 2008 in the minors, rebuilding strength. 2009, he spent almost the whole season with the major league club, and the AL took batting practice off of him. Many people saw the increased home run and walk rates and reduced strikeouts and assumed he was done. However, in 2010, he has been one of the most valuable pitchers in all of baseball.

Every pitcher is different, and given the success rate of the surgery these days, the Liriano example is only a cautionary tale to fans that it isn't an overnight process. Many experts didn't expect J Zimm back so soon, and his return gives everyone hope for 2012.

As for Dibble, I'm laying off... his job is hard enough without being under the microscope now.

Nooooooooooo....

For All the Hype...

Tim Hudson was the better pitcher last night. Both teams' defenses were doing the pitcher no favors, and while Strasburg's best produced those dramatic strikeouts, he also let a couple batters off the hook. Hudson's pitch count elevated early, but still cruised through seven and left for a pinch hitter with a comfortable lead.

More miserable decisions likely cost the Nats a run or two in the earlier innings, such as getting Pudge thrown out stealing, or sacrificing Desmond with a runner on second and Nyjer and Strasburg on deck. Heinous decisions, yes. Would they have changed the complexion of the game? Possibly, though I still think Hudson had the gear to get out of those jams regardless.

And Dibble does have the right to go nuclear on the state of the defense. These are more talented players executing at the same level as the fodder taking the field for 100 loss teams. How does Morgan go to third with one out. Jimmy Dugan would have him bawling in the dugout for that.

Dibble and Knight Square Off!

That got awkward fast.

"I'm not disagreeing because I'm a pitcher."

"You got your opinion I got mine."

"I don't care. I'm not disagreeing with you. I know I'm right as a hitter."

"I got a base hit in the World Series, jammed me as big as anything..."

"That's all right Ray, I got MVP in the playoffs by throwing strikes. So you got your opinion and I got mine."

Somewhere I heard Dibble say the Royals were the best hitting team in baseball; fortunately, he amended it to "slap hitting", which last I checked was a negative thing.

"You got it totally wrong, I didn't say he didn't do a great job."

Then both Holliday and Carpenter let out sighs of relief during the awkward pause following Ray deferring to Rob's superior arm, and Rob continued his Imperial Death stare. Good times had by all, and you can't find this kind of drama at the World Cup... oh wait, never mind.

I'll wait to look at the pitch f/x data, but Ray is probably right. College, AA, AAA, Strasburg can get away chunking 97-99 belt high with most guys swinging through it. The Pirates goofy bad lineup is more AAA, but most teams the Nats and Strasburg will face will have enough defensive minded hitters to make him work for strikeouts. He still got nine, and got the ones that mattered.

New Era

The only appropriate way to describe that is with the famous Onion headline, replacing a couple words.



Prior to the game, almost everybody was making prediction on what Stephen Strasburg's final line would be. I pulled this:

6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 92 pitches

Nobody called this:

7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 14 K, 94 pitches

It was a stunning spectacle. High fives were being thrown around, as were comparisons to all time greats. The game itself was like reliving Kerry Wood's 20 K game, right down to the knee-snapping slurve. Hitters looked foolish, and the man on the mound was always in control. Baseball Reference blog throws out the few other dominating debuts. I had totally forgotten about Tim Hudson bursting on the scene like this. Only the lost careers of JR Richard and Karl Spooner yielded more strikeouts. The most impressive part:

ZERO WALKS!

Truth be told, the Pirates have a young team. Here are two lists.

652, 86, 1300, 602, 606, 1000, 1431, 250. 5927

0, 148, 0, 2335, 519, 0, 1147, 52. 4201

The first list is the number of career major league at bats for the Pirates lineup last night, and the second is the career major league at bats for the Syracuse Chiefs. Your team is in trouble when Lastings Milledge is the grizzled vet.

Strasburg starts will be near, if not sellout the rest of the season. I'll be torn with him going up against the World Cup this month, but that was a very convincing argument.

Nobody has debuted like that before, and it is very possible that nobody will again.

Blogger Day Part 1

This should have been up first thing Monday, but blogger was down most of the day. Here is a recap of Blogger Day on the Dawn of Strasburg.

This past Saturday, the Nationals hosted “Blogger Day.” This year’s effort was spearheaded by Chad Kurz, Senior Manager of New Media. I’m not really sure what “new media” is, but apparently these ramblings are a part of it. Representatives of The Bombs, as well as about fifteen others, were allowed to take part in pregame interviews with Jim Riggleman, Josh Willingham, Drew Storen, and other members of the Nats organization. Following that, we were given a detailed tour of the stadium facilities and new amenities. Next, we were down on the field for batting practice before heading back up to the press box for dinner. The PNC Diamond Club hosts Inside Pitch Live, featuring a keynote speaker for every Saturday home game, and this week Stan Kasten took the mike. Finally, it was back to the press box to cover the game.

All in all, it was a pretty awesome time. I was running around trying to get pictures, audio, and video cut until nearly 4 am! I would love to cover these in more detail, get some pictures and quotes up, but I am about to run out the door for Strasburg. Here are some of the highlights.

Bill Simmons was correct. Press box food has to be the most fattening out there. Never mind the all-you-can-eat theme. The sandwich of the day was a third-pound bacon cheeseburger. I’m not so sure that’s considered a “sandwich, but I ate the hell out of it anyway. Simmons was quite wrong about his assessment of “Press Box hot.” Sure, our enclave was Miss Chatter and the 14 Dwarves, but the rest of the Nats media coverage was diverse enough to keep the pawing to a minimum. Bob Carpenter is everywhere before a game. You can’t miss the guy. He knows and talks to everybody! Dibble was off at his kid’s graduation, though something tells me the former Nasty Boy isn’t as personable.

Will finish this after Stasburgmania.

189 Hours to Strasburg

Not Really News, but Stephen Strasburg Has Signed

The staff here at The Bombs will never promise to break news, as bedtime often comes before even Nats Xtra ends, let alone deadlines for signing picks and firing managers.

In any event, Boras got his record-breaking deal, Strasburg gets to play baseball, the Nats front office receives a gold star from their peers for working out a deal, and The Bombs would have won on The Price is Right with their estimation of the final contract value.

I'm not sure this makes the next Blogger Day less or more intriguing.

Now you know the Nats are hoping to climb out of the cellar to avoid the Bryce Harper fiasco next year... who smells 20+?

11-3

Hot and cold.

Those are the words to describe these Nationals. When the team left Atlanta, the eight game winning streak was a distant memory. The offense had hit the wall, the bullpen was showing some flaws... then the rookie starters, Mock and Martin, whose bargain basement expectations leave the fans and the bettors to their own devices, step up with 12 IP, 0 ER, and two big wins. The only blip on the radar has been the profoundly diabolical pitching of Logan Kensing, whose future with the team should be summed up by Jerry Hathaway: "You are no longer of any use to me!" Seriously, that Nats need him right now like a fish needs a bicycle. And they continue to do this with fairly average catching, too much Ronnie Belliard, and no starters with more than 2 years of experience.

With the Strasburg negotiations likely to come up Osaka, the winning baseball is a welcome distraction. I think the Nationals will put forth one last push tomorrow, but if this is the difference between 15 and 30 million, nobody is confident in a deal getting done. If Strasburg were smart, he only needs to look as far as the disaster Aaron Crow has created for himself. Strasburg will be lucky to be offered half of what the Nats are offering him coming of the his college performance and number one pick status. The number five pick coming out of an Indy League cannot command record money.

Hot and cold.

Great story getting Drew Storen all the way to AA before the signing deadline, but not every story can have a happy ending.

Every Player is His Own Entitiy

I hate how people say that Jordan Zimmermann's tragic MRI diagnosis is going to give Scott Boras additional leverage going into the final week of negotiations. Stephen Strasburg's desire to play major league baseball in 2010 has nothing to with the amount of damage to Flash's ulnar collateral ligament. Jordan Zimmermann is not a party to these negotiations, nor is Dr. James Andrews.

The only parties that really have any bearing in these talks are Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, and Lerner, Inc. And you have to give Kasten credit for keeping it that way, leaving the media and the blogosphere in the dark.

What may impact the Strasburg signing is Washington's decision to waive and keep Cristian Guzman's 2010 salary. Cristian Guzman and his limited defense are not impacting these negotiations, just the money committed to him.

Remember, Stephen Strasburg had a year of college eligibility left. He chose to leave to cash in on his maximum value. He does himself no good turning down the Nationals to play Independent ball. I think Scott Boras may be selling his prowess of moving Luke Hochevar up from the #40 pick with the Dodgers to KC taking him #1 the following year (a comically stupid move by KC, but hey, I guess they got their guy). While Hochevar has not been a bust yet, he is still barely league average, and by losing a year of his career to stay out of ML ball, he upped his offer from 3 to 5 million. The only way this amount of money makes any impact to the lifetime earnings of a major league pitcher is if he never makes it to arbitration. A league average pitcher, like Scott Olsen, will make close to 3 million at arbitration. By not holding out, he reaches this threshold sooner, reaches free agency sooner, and extends his career one extra season. If Adam Eaton can cash out a 3 year 24 million dollar contract, any league average free agent can grab 5 million here and there, and last I checked, 5 million is greater than 2 million.

If Strasburg signs, barring injury, he will have his free agent clock ticking on May 1st. The Nats have no reason to keep him off the roster as he will sell tickets. If he lands somewhere else, that remains up in the air. The big bonus is great, but holding out for a bigger one only pays off if the pitcher doesn't make the bigs.

Steady Improvement (Strasburg Impact)

The Nationals are quickly climbing in the win column, and with their run differential already better than Kansas City and San Diego, they are hovering in the same ballpark as Cincinnati and Baltimore. It was impossible for the Nationals to go 2-5 every week, losing games 8-6 and winning 7-2. As expected, they are beginning to regress to the mean. What was not expected was that Rizzo would pull a couple of good moves to make the team more balanced. They have the ability to score in bunches, and unlike in May, this team is confident it can hold a lead.

This improvement likely means that the Nationals will be hard pressed to finish with the league's worst record. That burden will fall to the Royals, who probably couldn't win a series against most AAA teams. The AAA Pirates are also in free-fall and Sean Burnett may get the last laugh on comments he said about the Pirates last week.

The question now is how is this impacting the Strasburg negotiations? My gut feeling three weeks ago, prior to the trade deadline, was that if Washington did not provide them with an offer they could not refuse, they would walk. San Diego was in a position to draft #3 (the Nats would be 1 & 2) and he would likely prefer to play for his home team for a "discount".

Now, with KC, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Baltimore all tanking like this is the NBA lottery, the chances of Strasburg falling to San Diego with any leverage is nil. Prior to the draft, I felt Washington held the better hand in the negotiations, and now with several teams struggling and the Nats winning, they may be deluding themselves that they can compete (let's be honest, Stan Kasten isn't in it to win) without the 50 million dollar man.

I cannot imagine Strasburg risking the same fate as Luke Hochevar, landing in baseball purgatory for five years for a couple extra dollars. The deal probably will wind down until the final hours, but at this point, the Nationals are as appealing as any of the other likely top 5 destinations.

Some Notes About 102 mph Fastballs

Yes, everybody knows Stephen Strasburg can bring the gas, and the more I think about it, the more I realize that Scott Boras is probably not out of his mind pushing the envelope here. Think of how many pitchers have come into the league throwing 98+. Most of those pitchers did not gain velocity; as a matter of fact most immediately begin losing velocity. Basically, there should be no breaking in period. Strasburg is likely at his peak and he needs to cash in now. By the time he hits arbitration, he may only be throwing mid-90s and could be considered damaged goods.

Even in the event he doesn't start losing juice, he may not be able to maintain it. Take a look at Joel Zumaya. He has had some injuries, and shoulder stress fractures are not common. He struggles to keep velocity and health. Teammate Justin Verlander may be a better comparison, as he starts and can touch triple-digits. Last year he got pounded because he lost 2 mph. He seems to have rediscovered it in the meantime and is lights out. However, he will be a much greater risk as a free agent than a Johan Santana because he relies on velocity more than location and consistency.

For perspective, check out this list. Those four guys at the top of the list will cash in huge in their first year of free agency, despite injuries or erratic results. The two former Marlins behind them did, and they have been good, great sometimes, but rarely the model of consistency.

This is toughest negotiation for the Nats: how do they put a price on good, great sometimes? They price is always driven by "great all the time."

When a no-no is a no-no.

Well, Stephen Strasburg has gone and done it this time. The response here in DC has ranged from euphoric to orgasmic. Sydney Crosby was the last prospect in any sport that I can remember being gushed over like this. Overnight, he went from being the top prospect to the ONLY prospect. And it is hard to argue the kid's stuff.

But shame on Stephen Strasburg. Shame on him for getting everybody all riled up. First of all, if you think you are the consensus number 1 pick in the draft, is it really fair to be beating on cadets from the Air Force Academy? Most high schools could take 1 out of 3 from the Falcons. I know it is a conference game, but why not save that type of performance for when the cards are really on the table in the NCAA regionals? Who knows what must be going through Scott Boras' head right now.

College pitchers, while almost always more prepared to step into the show within a couple seasons, tend to be a funny breed. Making the jump requires a mental toughness that he may not have. Pitching in the Mountain West Conference against student-athletes, facing maybe two to three bats capable of finding their way to high-A ball (or Air Force, with zero), is light years away from facing guys who are doing it for their livelihood. It is far from a sure thing that he will be able to help the Nats right away. So few top power prospects pan out; I root Justin Verlander every time, hoping he can harness his stuff before his arm falls off. I just can't see how 102 mph is sustainable for a starting pitcher.

It is a tough call, and the scout really have to get into his to see if this is the guy that can push himself and take care of himself. Can he be a team guy, even though he might never have to play for another contract, knowing his ticket to the majors is punched without having to earn it in AA and AAA?

In the end, the price has to be right, too. Even Johan Santana and other proven commodities have a market value; remember how foolish the Yankees looked dragging Roger Clemens out of retirement for his king's ransom. The timing of his gem could not have been more perfect from a financial standpoint. From a player development and draft perspective, maybe not so much. The pressure will be insurmountable to draft and sign Strasburg, and the pressure will be insurmountable to live up to the expectations of being Scott Boras' prized thoroughbred. Mark Teixeira has struggled in New York, and the general history of top drafted pitchers is daunting.

The money and the makeup.