If you hadn't noticed yet, Riggleman has taken the liberty of flopping Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn in the lineup based on righty-lefty matchup. What does this accomplish?
1) Out of the 3rd spot, the like-handed batter is more likely to see pitches over the plate to keep from walking the easier out with the hitter-favored matchup on deck.
2) Balls up over the plate greatly reduce the potential for ground balls and inning-killing double plays.
3) Both hitters' on-base percentage increases.
Ironically, the player who benefits the most from this are not Dunn or Zimmerman. It is Josh Willingham. He has more runners on base when he comes up, during which the pitcher is less effective from the stretch. Willingham is equally effective against both righties and lefties, and therefore gives the opposing pitcher little room for error facing the 3-4-5 stretch of the lineup.
I will give credit to Riggleman for finding a way to maximize production from a very thin lineup. With Nyjer Morgan struggling, Pudge injured, and the middle infielders still trying to find their individual ways (none are terrible, they all possess some shortcomings, though), that 3-4-5 really has to carry the load.
Showing posts with label batting order. Show all posts
Showing posts with label batting order. Show all posts
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
The Phantom Waiver Claim
I remember driving around PG County somewhere when I heard the news that Cristian Guzman had been claimed off waivers by somebody. He was the perfect candidate for a fresh start, as he had lost the leadoff spot to Nyjer Morgan, and DC critics were ripping him for, well, being Cristian Guzman. Instead, Guzman hears the news and voices his displeasure through all channels. To make matters worse, the waiver claim turns out to be some faulty reporting on the Boston side, and Washington is forced to pull him back, stroke his ego, and tell him everything will be OK.
Cristian Guzman is the old dog that cannot learn new tricks, and he knows it. His overall abilities are regressing, and his desperate bat has to jump on the first hittable pitch he thinks he sees. His K:BB ratio will probably be in excess of 7 this season, yet the plan is to trot him out there in the #2 spot and hope Morgan can steal on the first pitch each time. Double plays increase exponentially despite his speed. To tell the truth, without Nick Johnson around, the Nats don't have that patient presence to anchor down that spot. The clever thing to do would be move Zim, Dunn, and the Hammer up a spot in the lineup, but Riggleman is scared to death of innovation (and I feel like I can write this freely as I am sure he is yet to discover "The Internets"). Dukes and Desmond aren't quite developed enough as hitters to be reliable, and Kennedy, while more patient, isn't going to provide the offensive threat. Sure, batting Zim second will probably shave 10 bombs off his yearly output, and if Morgan does steal, it opens up first base to pitch around him, but honestly, pitching around him to get to Dunn is just foolish.
The only thing Guz has going for him batting second is his ability to bat left-handed... to bad he sucks at it. In the AL, Guzman bats 8th or 9th; too bad the Nationals don't feel they can share this luxury.
Cristian Guzman is the old dog that cannot learn new tricks, and he knows it. His overall abilities are regressing, and his desperate bat has to jump on the first hittable pitch he thinks he sees. His K:BB ratio will probably be in excess of 7 this season, yet the plan is to trot him out there in the #2 spot and hope Morgan can steal on the first pitch each time. Double plays increase exponentially despite his speed. To tell the truth, without Nick Johnson around, the Nats don't have that patient presence to anchor down that spot. The clever thing to do would be move Zim, Dunn, and the Hammer up a spot in the lineup, but Riggleman is scared to death of innovation (and I feel like I can write this freely as I am sure he is yet to discover "The Internets"). Dukes and Desmond aren't quite developed enough as hitters to be reliable, and Kennedy, while more patient, isn't going to provide the offensive threat. Sure, batting Zim second will probably shave 10 bombs off his yearly output, and if Morgan does steal, it opens up first base to pitch around him, but honestly, pitching around him to get to Dunn is just foolish.
The only thing Guz has going for him batting second is his ability to bat left-handed... to bad he sucks at it. In the AL, Guzman bats 8th or 9th; too bad the Nationals don't feel they can share this luxury.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Guzman Needs to Bat 7th... or 8th
Besides another team? Alas, that is a discussion for another time. Still, cannot believe the Nats were not able to parlay his hot start to a team in need of a SS (and there are several).
Since the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan, the Nats have filled the role of "prototypical lead-off hitter". Morgan takes pitches, bunts, gets on base 35% of the time or better, and can steal bases. So now that Guzman is out of the lead-off spot, where should Riggleman, or which ever lucky 5th grader he selects to pick his lineup, bat Guzman and his .300 average and .301 OBP?
The #2 spot is where he was the other night, and it was a disaster. He chases bad pitches, and while he isn't as prone to the GIDP as Zimmerman, he isn't moving the runner up. Besides, Nick Johnson really understands his role in that position, sacrificing power for control. And obviously the 3 and 4 spots are off limits, even if they are incorrectly administered. That's right, I'll get to that later.
Guzman batted fifth in the first game of this series, proving that Riggleman knows nothing about baseball strategy. Dunn was ahead of him in the lineup, and if Dunn is on first, which happens often with his walk rate, Guzman is NEVER scoring him from first base. Flat out foolish decision. And because Guzman is allergic to the #6 spot in the lineup, that leaves just three spots. OK, the pitcher will stay #9.
So #7 and #8 are open, and are usually reserved for the catcher and a spot starter. Guzman has been hitting the ball this season, but his ISO is still below .100. More often then not he is on first base. Same with Josh Bard. The difference is that Bard, even when healthy, is treacherously slow on the bases. Therefore, it probably best to bat Guzman ahead of him. Bard can paint the lines with double, and Guzman is quick enough to score from first. When Slappy gets the start, he isn't bringing power to the plate, but knows how to get to first and is quick for a catcher. Guzman should bat behind Nieves in the event he starts.
So what does that leave us with?
1. Morgan
2. Johnson
3. Willingham
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Second Base (Gonzalez)
7. Guzman/Nieves
8. Bard/Guzman
Batting 8th does not mean that you are a poor hitter; just see what Joe Torre has been doing in LA. However, management seems to believe that Guzman has to bat high to protect his ego. This is pure BS. The objective is still to win games, and give his salary, he should be willing to bat near the bottom if it help produce runs.
The Nats run differential does not support a record as bad as what the Nats have posted. Yes, some of it can be attributed to the leaky bullpen, more to the defense. But those fundamentals do not support the fact that the Nationals hit the ball well, but often fail to score. Zimmerman is too much of a double play machine to bat third. His ground ball ratio also does not help Morgan score from third with less than two outs. Willingham is a good flyball hitter who can get on base. Zimmerman's propensity for ground balls up the middle should be moved down behind Dunn, where one of the following things are more likely:
a) the bases are empty because he is leading off an inning,
b) the bases are empty because Dunn just cleared them,
c) there are two outs so the infield is not at double play depth
d) if Dunn is on first and there are less than two outs, the Nats may have already scored (doesn't diminish the fact that a GIDP sucks, but hey, runs are runs)
Batting third does not allow for a-c, increasing the likelihood that the opponent will play for the double play against Zimmerman. This has probably cost the Nats a half dozen run alone this year. In any event, I will be stashing a printout of this blog in the home dugout every time I hit Nats Park this year.
Since the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan, the Nats have filled the role of "prototypical lead-off hitter". Morgan takes pitches, bunts, gets on base 35% of the time or better, and can steal bases. So now that Guzman is out of the lead-off spot, where should Riggleman, or which ever lucky 5th grader he selects to pick his lineup, bat Guzman and his .300 average and .301 OBP?
The #2 spot is where he was the other night, and it was a disaster. He chases bad pitches, and while he isn't as prone to the GIDP as Zimmerman, he isn't moving the runner up. Besides, Nick Johnson really understands his role in that position, sacrificing power for control. And obviously the 3 and 4 spots are off limits, even if they are incorrectly administered. That's right, I'll get to that later.
Guzman batted fifth in the first game of this series, proving that Riggleman knows nothing about baseball strategy. Dunn was ahead of him in the lineup, and if Dunn is on first, which happens often with his walk rate, Guzman is NEVER scoring him from first base. Flat out foolish decision. And because Guzman is allergic to the #6 spot in the lineup, that leaves just three spots. OK, the pitcher will stay #9.
So #7 and #8 are open, and are usually reserved for the catcher and a spot starter. Guzman has been hitting the ball this season, but his ISO is still below .100. More often then not he is on first base. Same with Josh Bard. The difference is that Bard, even when healthy, is treacherously slow on the bases. Therefore, it probably best to bat Guzman ahead of him. Bard can paint the lines with double, and Guzman is quick enough to score from first. When Slappy gets the start, he isn't bringing power to the plate, but knows how to get to first and is quick for a catcher. Guzman should bat behind Nieves in the event he starts.
So what does that leave us with?
1. Morgan
2. Johnson
3. Willingham
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Second Base (Gonzalez)
7. Guzman/Nieves
8. Bard/Guzman
Batting 8th does not mean that you are a poor hitter; just see what Joe Torre has been doing in LA. However, management seems to believe that Guzman has to bat high to protect his ego. This is pure BS. The objective is still to win games, and give his salary, he should be willing to bat near the bottom if it help produce runs.
The Nats run differential does not support a record as bad as what the Nats have posted. Yes, some of it can be attributed to the leaky bullpen, more to the defense. But those fundamentals do not support the fact that the Nationals hit the ball well, but often fail to score. Zimmerman is too much of a double play machine to bat third. His ground ball ratio also does not help Morgan score from third with less than two outs. Willingham is a good flyball hitter who can get on base. Zimmerman's propensity for ground balls up the middle should be moved down behind Dunn, where one of the following things are more likely:
a) the bases are empty because he is leading off an inning,
b) the bases are empty because Dunn just cleared them,
c) there are two outs so the infield is not at double play depth
d) if Dunn is on first and there are less than two outs, the Nats may have already scored (doesn't diminish the fact that a GIDP sucks, but hey, runs are runs)
Batting third does not allow for a-c, increasing the likelihood that the opponent will play for the double play against Zimmerman. This has probably cost the Nats a half dozen run alone this year. In any event, I will be stashing a printout of this blog in the home dugout every time I hit Nats Park this year.
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