7 and 126?

If those numbers sound familiar, you are not alone. Those are the exact terms to which Barry Zito agreed in 2007, mind you Zito was two years younger and not far removed from winning a Cy Young award. And the mockery both Zito and the Giants have taken for the deal has only been quelled by their overachieving bunch exorcising those demons and bringing home a world championship... it should be noted that they won that title without Zito on the roster.

Werth isn't a terrible player. Neither is Barry Zito. Werth was miscast as a future star before he was ready. Baseball is funny like that, as players drafted straight out high school with hype often disappear into the minor league abyss before reemerging as a completely different player. Werth showed his five-tool abilities in the Blue Jays system, but those teams were clinging to the notion that they were a couple breaks away from competing in the AL East. He was traded to the Dodgers and, for a number of reasons, never emerged as the top 100 prospect they thought they were acquiring. The offensive numbers are somewhat misleading, playing in the NL West, but after a few hundred at bats and no more options, the Dodgers let him go. The Phillies, having just dealt away Bobby Abreu and unconvinced Shane Victorino could be an everyday play, took a chance. Playing in a hitters' park, surrounded by Utley, Howard, and later Ibanez, Jayson Werth has crushed the ball.

Jayson Werth has been a 5-win player through his prime years and probably has 1-2 5 wins seasons in him, assuming his defensive dip last season was just noise. But over the next 7 seasons? It would be foolish to expect Werth to contribute more than 3 wins average per season over the next five, with increased risk of injury. A 7-year contract to a 29 year-old center fielder would be considered foolish, even to a team with the resources of the Yank/Sox. But a 31 year-old corner outfielder? Much like the contract Ryan Howard received, it isn't an albatross until the numbers drop.

I wasn't at the winter meetings, so I have no idea what the large market was for Werth's skill set. Carl Crawford is younger, facing stiffer competition, and probably should have driven the market. Overpaying for Werth now, unless it is a move to gain a competitive advantage acquiring Cliff Lee or Zack Grienke, is absolutely foolish with Crawford available to leverage. The Nats were not going to overpay for Dunn's skillset with the market flush with first basemen.

In closing, Jayson Werth is a very good player. He is not a GREAT player, though. At no time would he have been considered one of the three best players on his own team. The Nationals, however, have committed to him as such for the next seven seasons. It is a dangerous proposition and could be rationalized for a three to five year deal, but not seven... never seven. Just like Barry Zito was a very good pitcher, he was never GREAT.

* Some people may liken this more to Vernon Wells, but to me, this is the only Vernon Wells.

Adam Dunn Negotiating with the Tigers?

Bad loss for the Nats, great possibilities for Dunn though. The park effects will continue to dampen his power numbers, but not enough to decrease his overall value to an AL team. The Tigers fielding options at first base are not glorious, as Miguel Cabrera is crappy (as opposed to Dunn's extremely crappy), so he may get a chance to grab a glove a couple times a week. He would have better protection in the lineup with Cabrera and Ordonez playing the roles of Zimm and Hammer. The big difference would be having a true leadoff hitter in Austin Jackson, something the Nats had for only two months in 2009 when Nyjer Morgan was less crazy.

This is currently speculation but expect the stars and dollar signs to align in the nearer future. If not the Tigers, likely another AL team desperate for a bat.

Sorry Excuses

For the second time in recent memory, the Nationals were shut out despite recording eleven or more hits. This is an extremely difficult thing to accomplish and requires a near "Perfect Storm" of ineptitude to occur. Or so I thought. The Nationals have mastered the techniques to be able to do this in more than one way, but there are some similarities.

First and foremost, extra-base hits are a rarity, if not extinct all together. Home runs obviously shelve the shutout, but lead-off doubles also greatly increase a team's chance of scoring. Next, players must find new and creative ways to run into outs on the base paths. Base running blunders are a Nats specialty, though they seem to be grounding into fewer double plays (actually, same pace as last year). And finally, hitters lose focus of the situation and fail to produce with runner in scoring position.

The Nats were an inside-out opposite field triple by Josh Willingham, the Nats probably would have just been shut out 27 straight innings by the Marlins. This is why they are absolutely terrified of moving Dunn or Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Guzman. They have a dreadful offense that relies on three hitters, two of which are having career years at age 30 and 31. As much experience as Desmond is gaining, who else is here to fill the other six spots in the field not named Zimmerman? And those paying attention know that Dunn and Willingham are already regressing to the mean as this season drags on.

If that Marlins series didn't serve as a wake up call, the front office probably doesn't have a plan that they are prepared to execute. Trading Dunn is the play. Getting two AA/AAA players that are still developing is the play. Allowing Dunn to leave and acquiring the draft picks is a shrewd move in one of the two scenarios. The first being if the Nats had a strong farm that was ready to graduate to the bigs. They do not. The other would be if they were completely resigned to not competing until 2013, when Zim, Zimm, Strasburg, Storen, etc, would be in free agent or larger arbitration years, and Harper, Marrero, Espinosa, Meyers are contributing. Judging by their free agent acquisitions, they are clearly on a year-to-year, maybe we can make a run at it if everything falls into place. That points to either having already locked up Dunn through 2012 (not the worst idea) or trading for chips that can contribute in 2011/2012.

The problem I see is that by jerking Dunn around like this, the Nats may get nothing out of the deal but his services for the next two months. They also further poison their brand by looking greedy and incompetent, and will struggle getting the free agents they need to make up for the barren farm system. Don't get me wrong, Rizzo get shafted more and more every day for Jim Bowden crapping on the franchise for all those years. At least we get to enjoy Strasburg...

And if I see Stammen get pinch hit for again by anybody except Mike Morse, I'm going to clock somebody. Do the managers and coaches even watch BP? If they did, they would know Stammen is a far better hitter than Kennedy, Harris, or the rest of the punch-and-judy crap on the bench.

Second Half Run

The Nats aren't buyers; they ought to be savvy sellers, understanding the value of a draft pick versus taking another team's castoff farmhands. So how does that translate into a "run"?

The Nats finished strong last season when September call-ups were given the chance to succeed without the pressure of being re-designated or planted on the bench (see Maxwell, Justin). The key is to determine which of these guys will be Nationals in 2012, not just the rest of the season. Desmond is off to a better start in July. Mike... er Michael Morse has hit when he has been in the lineup. Roger Bernadina's plate discipline improves each month. Justin Maxwell even has a cameo through Monday. So question now posed: none of these players are WORSE than Willie Harris, and given Nyjer Morgan's shenanigans this season, one could argue that Bernadina should be starting in centerfield everyday, regardless of age, service time, or trade value. Given the Nats lack of outfield prospects, these are their guys for now. If they choose to keep him, it should be Hammer, Bernadina, and Morse most nights with Maxwell spelling the three of them. If a sweet package can be had for the Hammer, it will be tough to turn down considering how barren the cupboard is, but Josh Willingham has been to valuable to give the Nick Johnson treatment. Work a small trade for Morgan to free up room on the 40-man for another outfielder who can obtained...

By trading Adam Dunn. Both Willingham and Dunn's value will never be higher, but Dunn's raw power numbers make him more appealing to other GMs. There are teams with logjams in the outfield, too many bats and not enough positions on the field, and Rizzo needs to exploit that. Get the outfield set now so they aren't still rebuilding when Strasburg is due to walk to New York. Also, feel free to shop around Guzman and Kennedy.

From a personality standpoint, it sucks to trade any of these guys; it isn't like dumping Milton Bradley on a team. These are character guys that the younger players do look up to, but that's the penalty for playing the Jim Bowden error. Freeing up the roster and putting these young players in a position succeed is important and it is what the organization should be focusing on... and with a little luck, maybe catch the nosediving Marlins.

Lee to the Rangers... (trade watch)

Totally shooting down my idea of Nolan Ryan making a lunge for Dunn to fix their first base crisis. ESPN had reported before my Friday afternoon nap that Lee was becoming a Yankee, which made no sense at all, as the Yankees already have 5+ starting pitchers (what was their plan, have 6 starters? move AJ Burnett to long relief?), unless Vasquez was also on the move. Alas, the Rangers bolstered an "interesting" pitching staff with one of the best in the game. Given the shaky financial situation, the Rangers may be out of the trade market for a while, but they still have that gaping hole at first. With Jake Peavy's duct tape wearing off, the White Sox may be less inclined to run at Dunn before taking stock of their starting pitching. The Giants are fading fast, though the Rockies are currently leaning on Jason Giambi to carry the load while Todd Helton decomposes on the DL.

That would leave a small market for Dunn this season. Unless one of those teams is prepared to give up an MLB ready player, expect to see more bubbles on the basepaths.

Dunn-Zimm Switcheroo

If you hadn't noticed yet, Riggleman has taken the liberty of flopping Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn in the lineup based on righty-lefty matchup. What does this accomplish?

1) Out of the 3rd spot, the like-handed batter is more likely to see pitches over the plate to keep from walking the easier out with the hitter-favored matchup on deck.

2) Balls up over the plate greatly reduce the potential for ground balls and inning-killing double plays.

3) Both hitters' on-base percentage increases.

Ironically, the player who benefits the most from this are not Dunn or Zimmerman. It is Josh Willingham. He has more runners on base when he comes up, during which the pitcher is less effective from the stretch. Willingham is equally effective against both righties and lefties, and therefore gives the opposing pitcher little room for error facing the 3-4-5 stretch of the lineup.

I will give credit to Riggleman for finding a way to maximize production from a very thin lineup. With Nyjer Morgan struggling, Pudge injured, and the middle infielders still trying to find their individual ways (none are terrible, they all possess some shortcomings, though), that 3-4-5 really has to carry the load.

RIP: Philadelphia Phillies 2001-2011

Normally, I would spend today catching up on the recent winning homestand, lambasting Brian Bruney, and pointing out the similarities and slim differences between Tim Hudson and Craig Stammen. Hell, if the Nats could regularly win 60% of their home games, I'd probably be out of a blog. The Bombs got on the Nats wagon at Rock Bottom (the existential pinnacle of failure, not the brewery) and are prepared to drive it as far as the Elvis quaff will allow.

Instead, we will look ahead, as that is what the Phillies apparently believe they are doing by investing 125 million more dollars into the limited skill set that is Ryan Howard. I understand the Phillies trying to keep their nucleus intact to make runs at another title, but after drawing the line at Cliff Lee, they dive into the abyss for fewer wins at first base?

The Phillies have had a great run, especially since 2007. The smart play going forward would have been to keep Lee, get maximum return for Jayson Werth or Raul Ibanez at the deadline, and drive the harder bargain with Howard, regardless of where Pujols sets the bar. However, they are still very capable of being one of the three best teams in the NL, and the fans would burn the city if they rebuilt for 2011 and 2012 while 2010 was well within grasp.

Instead, they look to be keeping their aging core onward past their 35th birthdays, hoping their jacks hold up against the monster hand the AL East is holding. They can't budget with the Yankees and Sox, so they have to build in cycles, and this generation has come to pass, one title one runner-up. Committing to Howard through 2017 is crazier than blocking him with an aging Jim Thome.

I mention this because the Nationals will be dealing with a VERY similar situation negotiating with Adam Dunn. The hard bargain will be to keep him down to two to three years, with nothing escalating much past 12 million per season. Dunn has never won anything in his major league career, but is a good clubhouse guy and took a career-altering position change in stride. The Nats do not want to Zito their budget with an aging slugger with no position.

What Could Really Ruin This Season

Is if Adam Dunn doesn't hit 40 on the nose again... he has zero bombs thus far in September and is stuck on 35. I'm a big fan of symmetry and Glass Tiger's "Don't Forget Me When I'm Gone" and only one of these can happen this year.

Get er Dunn, damnit.

Management is Biting Their Tongue on It...

But they need to confess to the crime on playing Adam Dunn at first base. He is a bad left fielder, we all know, and his lead feet have my fiance wondering if she could beat him in a race. But in comparison, he is an awful first baseman. First base takes some skill, reflexes, instincts. He lacks those vital attributes, and playing him there without practice or spring training is going to destroy both his confidence at the plate and diminish his potential value to another club if they KNOW he is atrocious at first.

Let the man play left... if Johnson needs a day off, give Willingham a shot... or move Zimm over and play Harris at third.

It is Official

The Nats can no longer trade Adam Dunn. Doing so would be franchise suicide. It doesn't matter how bad his defense is*, people get excited whenever "In the Air Tonight" and "Turn the Page" pierce the speakers. Despite his reputation for not playing with passion, he has connected with the media and fans as much as any Nat, is frustrated by losing, and has assumed a leadership role in the clubhouse. He is never going to be the vocal "rah-rah" type, nor is he going to be obsessive worker type. He is the Big Donkey, a family man and best hitter on the team. He takes the pressure off Ryan Zimmerman to be the star every night.

The best advantages the Nats will have keeping him is that he is only tradable to the American League at this point. Most clubs see him only as a DH. His personality doesn't fit into the celebrity/playboy scene the Yankees and Red Sox cultivate, and those are the teams most likely to overpay for his bat. Therefore, it would take a confluence of events and "Godfather" deal for Rizzo to pull the plug on Dunn.

* Dunn has made 8 errors this season, though 5 of them have come in the 39% of the innings he has played out of position in right field or at first base. He continues to post the same numbers he always has in left field, which he covers effectively with his bat.

Rizzo doesn't need to make a move to improve the team... he needs to make the right move. Adam Dunn will be able to perform with his bat for years to come, but which players may be seeing diminishing returns on their skill set?

More Nationals History

From Jayson Stark at ESPN:

• Adam Dunn has hit 16 home runs this year. That team he plays for, the Nationals, has won 13 games. So I know what you're wondering: Has there ever been a guy who had more homers in a season than his team had wins? And the answer: Heck, no. The Washington Times' Mark Zuckerman figured that one out, with the help of the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR magician David Vincent.

See, this season may not a be a loss after all! The only thought I have is that Dunn seems to consistently finish at 40 homers... yeah, the '62 Mets may be breaking out the champagne.

All Star Picks... NL OF

Outfield: Several good players to choose from here. Raul Ibanez is so far ahead of the field, he can be penciled into the LF spot. After that, there are nearly a dozen players who can find their way into a strong argument to start. First, the pleasant surprises. Mike Cameron has always been a premier defensive center fielder, but his bat has mysteriously gone south at times. At age 36, he continues to impress with the glove, taking the burden of teammate Ryan Braun, but has also rebounded nicely with the bat and should match the numbers he put up during his prime. His K/BB rates have also improved. He is still at the back of the line, though. Braun is hitting the ball well, but is a little behind last year's numbers... he is an adequate left fielder, which he should anchor down on the NL side for year till arbitration, but not this year. Adam Dunn and Brad Hawpe are the two sluggers that do nothing else but hit and hit well. Each are deserving of the nod, but I'm going with the ever-consistent Carlos Beltran, and 21 year-old stud Justin Upton. Upton's .340 average is probably a mirage, but his speed and power is the only thing keeping the Backs from being a AAA team. Beltran deserves one more nod in CF before retiring to one of the corner positions as his speed decays.

Some notes from Saturday

First, we don't talk about it here. Ever. Until it is over.

Second, the Kip Wells experiment nearly blew up tonight. Fortunately Joel Hanrahan was able to find three pitches relatively close to the strike zone to retire Chad Tracy's corpse. Bullpen-by-committee is good decision. Win as a team and lose as a team. There isn't one guy qualified to slam the door in the ninth, but they have several different styles, and each can be used to get an out at the right time. Given the lack of innings by their starters, what the Nats need to do is find that Brad Ziegler-type middle reliever to bridge the 6th to the 8th.

And congratulations to Elijah Dukes, who today was nominated for the Major League Baseball Hall of Shame by getting picked off first base three times in a single week. Way to go kid! Somebody email the Elias Sports Bureau and see if this is a record.

And I apologize for suggesting that Adam Dunn would be able to immediately improve his value to the team by moving to first base. It looks like that will be a work in progress.

Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?

I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.

The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).

Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.

Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.

It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.

If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.

There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.

A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.