Sorry Excuses

For the second time in recent memory, the Nationals were shut out despite recording eleven or more hits. This is an extremely difficult thing to accomplish and requires a near "Perfect Storm" of ineptitude to occur. Or so I thought. The Nationals have mastered the techniques to be able to do this in more than one way, but there are some similarities.

First and foremost, extra-base hits are a rarity, if not extinct all together. Home runs obviously shelve the shutout, but lead-off doubles also greatly increase a team's chance of scoring. Next, players must find new and creative ways to run into outs on the base paths. Base running blunders are a Nats specialty, though they seem to be grounding into fewer double plays (actually, same pace as last year). And finally, hitters lose focus of the situation and fail to produce with runner in scoring position.

The Nats were an inside-out opposite field triple by Josh Willingham, the Nats probably would have just been shut out 27 straight innings by the Marlins. This is why they are absolutely terrified of moving Dunn or Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Guzman. They have a dreadful offense that relies on three hitters, two of which are having career years at age 30 and 31. As much experience as Desmond is gaining, who else is here to fill the other six spots in the field not named Zimmerman? And those paying attention know that Dunn and Willingham are already regressing to the mean as this season drags on.

If that Marlins series didn't serve as a wake up call, the front office probably doesn't have a plan that they are prepared to execute. Trading Dunn is the play. Getting two AA/AAA players that are still developing is the play. Allowing Dunn to leave and acquiring the draft picks is a shrewd move in one of the two scenarios. The first being if the Nats had a strong farm that was ready to graduate to the bigs. They do not. The other would be if they were completely resigned to not competing until 2013, when Zim, Zimm, Strasburg, Storen, etc, would be in free agent or larger arbitration years, and Harper, Marrero, Espinosa, Meyers are contributing. Judging by their free agent acquisitions, they are clearly on a year-to-year, maybe we can make a run at it if everything falls into place. That points to either having already locked up Dunn through 2012 (not the worst idea) or trading for chips that can contribute in 2011/2012.

The problem I see is that by jerking Dunn around like this, the Nats may get nothing out of the deal but his services for the next two months. They also further poison their brand by looking greedy and incompetent, and will struggle getting the free agents they need to make up for the barren farm system. Don't get me wrong, Rizzo get shafted more and more every day for Jim Bowden crapping on the franchise for all those years. At least we get to enjoy Strasburg...

And if I see Stammen get pinch hit for again by anybody except Mike Morse, I'm going to clock somebody. Do the managers and coaches even watch BP? If they did, they would know Stammen is a far better hitter than Kennedy, Harris, or the rest of the punch-and-judy crap on the bench.

Second Half Run

The Nats aren't buyers; they ought to be savvy sellers, understanding the value of a draft pick versus taking another team's castoff farmhands. So how does that translate into a "run"?

The Nats finished strong last season when September call-ups were given the chance to succeed without the pressure of being re-designated or planted on the bench (see Maxwell, Justin). The key is to determine which of these guys will be Nationals in 2012, not just the rest of the season. Desmond is off to a better start in July. Mike... er Michael Morse has hit when he has been in the lineup. Roger Bernadina's plate discipline improves each month. Justin Maxwell even has a cameo through Monday. So question now posed: none of these players are WORSE than Willie Harris, and given Nyjer Morgan's shenanigans this season, one could argue that Bernadina should be starting in centerfield everyday, regardless of age, service time, or trade value. Given the Nats lack of outfield prospects, these are their guys for now. If they choose to keep him, it should be Hammer, Bernadina, and Morse most nights with Maxwell spelling the three of them. If a sweet package can be had for the Hammer, it will be tough to turn down considering how barren the cupboard is, but Josh Willingham has been to valuable to give the Nick Johnson treatment. Work a small trade for Morgan to free up room on the 40-man for another outfielder who can obtained...

By trading Adam Dunn. Both Willingham and Dunn's value will never be higher, but Dunn's raw power numbers make him more appealing to other GMs. There are teams with logjams in the outfield, too many bats and not enough positions on the field, and Rizzo needs to exploit that. Get the outfield set now so they aren't still rebuilding when Strasburg is due to walk to New York. Also, feel free to shop around Guzman and Kennedy.

From a personality standpoint, it sucks to trade any of these guys; it isn't like dumping Milton Bradley on a team. These are character guys that the younger players do look up to, but that's the penalty for playing the Jim Bowden error. Freeing up the roster and putting these young players in a position succeed is important and it is what the organization should be focusing on... and with a little luck, maybe catch the nosediving Marlins.

Dunn-Zimm Switcheroo

If you hadn't noticed yet, Riggleman has taken the liberty of flopping Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn in the lineup based on righty-lefty matchup. What does this accomplish?

1) Out of the 3rd spot, the like-handed batter is more likely to see pitches over the plate to keep from walking the easier out with the hitter-favored matchup on deck.

2) Balls up over the plate greatly reduce the potential for ground balls and inning-killing double plays.

3) Both hitters' on-base percentage increases.

Ironically, the player who benefits the most from this are not Dunn or Zimmerman. It is Josh Willingham. He has more runners on base when he comes up, during which the pitcher is less effective from the stretch. Willingham is equally effective against both righties and lefties, and therefore gives the opposing pitcher little room for error facing the 3-4-5 stretch of the lineup.

I will give credit to Riggleman for finding a way to maximize production from a very thin lineup. With Nyjer Morgan struggling, Pudge injured, and the middle infielders still trying to find their individual ways (none are terrible, they all possess some shortcomings, though), that 3-4-5 really has to carry the load.

"Did Somebody Call for Me?"

And most skeptics thought we should be trading this guy.

What happens if I need to hang something?

Now Hold It... Right There.

Johan was watching too many MASN commercials and was lulled by the Hammer's husky southern drawl. Willingham has the talent to go scorching hot for a few weeks, and he is going to need to if Riggleman continues to roll the dice with this abomination:
Morgan: .081
Taveras: .045
Guzman: .105
Yes, those are the 2009 ISO numbers for the top 3 hitters the Nats lineup. ISO is a good barometer of the hitter's ability to hit for extra bases (SLG-AVG)... and anything under .100 is bad. Anything over .200 is pretty good. Anything under .060 is a pitcher. There is NO POINT to batting Taveras any higher than 8th. Morgan is a good leadoff hitter, and Guzman is a swinger that is better suited for a lower lineup spot. Some timely hitting from the Hammer probably saved this from being a 2-1 loss.

Back to the axiom, better lucky than good. And we shall save Livan for later.

The Untouted Gem

Last year we watched as Josh Willingham absolutely shredded pitchers from mid-May to mid-August, but most of the rest of the league saw him as a "flash-in-the-pan" who couldn't even bring decent prospects in return. Hell, even after the double slam game, few team kicked the tires.

Dave Cameron disagrees. Apparently if he was on the market, he should be one of the most sought out bats, as his statistical doppleganger is considered the best free agent bat on the market (we heard you the first time Mr. Boras).

Hey, I love the Hammer, and I love Alabama, but he should be in line to bump his salary upwards of 8M if he exceeds last season's performance. And it isn't like Willingham is comically bad defensively; his legs are too short and he doesn't play line drives as well as an Austin Kearns. He is just regular bad at defense.

Three Signings That Won't Make You Cringe

As the free agent market begins to dry up, the less desirable teams are forced to scramble to claim the best remaining players to fill the gaps on their rosters. Watching the Royals make a panic moves to acquire flawed veterans Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel, the fact of the matter is that Rizzo has made most of the right moves to improve the team 10+ wins for 2010. It is doubtful that the NL East will be as terrible as it was last season, but the improved pitching will make them a more difficult team to sweep.

Going into the offseason, the Nats did not have many "holes" (besides the abyss called the bullpen), but many "areas for improvement." The biggest hole outside the bullpen has been the farm. They were forced to call up anyone with a pulse, mostly with less than desirable results. Second base still needs to be addressed, and Rizzo has gone out of his way to put his card in every agents' hand. It has been the number of proven major leaguers and AAAA guys looking for a second chance they have shrewdly brought in via minor league contracts. Having a player blocked in AAA is never a bad problem; needing regular innings from Justin Maxwell is a bad problem.

The Nats picked up Tyler Walker for a one year deal for less than a million bucks, in an era that Brandon Lyon received 3 years and 15 million. Walker is considered more of short-relief guy, better at working against righties, but his splits improved in 2009. According to the Pitch f/x, he didn't change stuff or approach much, so it is possible he had a lucky 53 batters. However, Walker has sustained a BABIP well below average for three straight seasons, and those numbers are not dependent upon his split stats. He also strikes out more than twice as many as he walks, which is unheard of in the Nats organization). My inclination is that he figured out how to get guys out with his B-rated stuff. He is an epic upgrade over a leech like Julian Tarvarez, and a good experienced role player for a bullpen that lacked most of that phrase at the beginning of Spring Training last season.

Chris Duncan doesn't figure to be in the equation unless there is an injury... of course, that is what the farm is for. His bat shows some pop, but he moves like he should be playing with the old timers in the All-Star weekend softball game. (Random tangent: my roommate and I just happened to catch the greatest play ever made in history of that series. First inning of the 2004 game, 2 outs and a dying quail is flipped into shallow center field. The center fielder hardly moved, and it looked like a sure single. Out of the right corner of the screen, a gray moustached blur came skidding across the grass face-first, full extension, and robbed the batter. Then 57 year-old Rollie Fingers flipped the ball back to the infield and trotted off to the dugout.) Duncan is only signed to a minor league deal, so if he does rediscover his swing at Syracuse and can get on base around league average, he will be a valuable bat off the bench or backup for Willingham.

The coup went under the radar though, as the Nats also stole Chuck James for a minor league deal. Chuck James isn't an All Star. He is coming of rotator cuff and labrum surgery, but it will be 18 months when camp opens. It will probably take a few months to rebuild strength, but it is likely, given his 2:1 K:BB number when healthy, that he will be in a similar, if not better position to contribute to the organization in 2010. The trouble he brings is that he is slight and doesn't create much of a downward plane with his fastball, leaving him prone to flyballs. However, regardless of his style, he is a steady lefty that can fill in the back of the rotation better that JD Martin. He should be considered "Scott Olsen insurance. If he adds a third pitch, something that can change the hitters' horizontal plane more than his fastball/changeup combo, he will have an impact on the major league roster this season.

Josh Willingham Regressing to the Mean

He still packs some pop, but since mid-August, he has been pretty brutal. Despite the fact that he has posted an OPS .603 in September, with countless resources abound to fill the gap in left for a day, the Hammer has had just two off days, both day games, both on the road.

I know when Riggleman fills out the lineup card, he sees the guy who has five multi-homer games this season. It isn't like the Nats have a shot of avoiding DFL or even 100 losses.

Give the man a night off.

Josh Willingham Will Go Yard Tonight

The song playing on the Sirius when I got in the car: Even Flow.

2 Grand Slams, 8 RBI!

Congratulations to Josh Willingham for providing the Nationals all-time most productive offensive evening by crushing 2 grand slams against the Brew Crew last night (7/27/09). Hardcore.

ps - any takers? Texas Rangers?

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

The Nationals have made a mess out have what could have been a memorable turning point in the franchise this week with the draft. They took the Big Gun, got another first round pick signed, and despite the continued skid on the field, appeared to be playing competitively.

First, some idiot in the front office leaks news that Manny is out before anybody else seems to know what is going on. At this point, I think this guy fabricated the whole thing because he was tired of watching Manny. Now, I am looking at friggin Corey Patterson in right field. I know the Nats went from an overloaded outfield to a drained one with Willingham away and Kearns aborting his baseball career. But how in God's name did they find the one guy in AAA that is a worse hitter than Kearns? What value does he bring to the team. Patterson has been on a steady decline for the past six seasons and wasn't exactly lighting up AAA. Even his defense has steadily declined to the point that he is not noticeable more valuable than Kearns.

I don't get it... why not just send Kearns out there to either sink or swim until Willingham gets back, or promote a player that will provide a skill that Kearns doesn't, such as awesome defense or adequate hitting? Just stupid.

Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?

I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.

The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).

Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.

Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.

It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.

If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.

There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.

A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.