Saturday, August 8, 2009

Can the Nats Beat Dan Haren?

While much of the attention this season has been directed at Grienke, Lincecum, and the AL East, Dan Haren has produced insane numbers down in a hitter's paradise in Phoenix. His 0.877 WHIP is lowest in the NL since Greg Maddux ran amok in 1995, and he is also leading the NL in K/BB, astat Curt Schilling proved is absolutely vital in a hitter's ballpark. However, because the D-Backs have regularly run guys like Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes, and Chad Tracy, it is like they choose to regularly bat Austin Kearns 15 times per game. Hence, instead of 14-3, Haren is a solid, but unspectacular 11-6. He likely will finish runner up in the Cy Young voting to Lincecum or Santana, despite having unheard of numbers this side of the steroid explosion.

So can the Nats beat Dan Haren? Sure, but only if Garrett Mock pretends this is an International League game.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Craig Stammen + August = Trouble

Craig Stammen's two August starts have been awful. No way to sugar coat it, either. As July wore on, the magic faded and the hits started dropping. Any pitcher can have rough patch, but if he continues to leave the ball up in the zone, major league hitter will spray it around. Fatigue would explain his current inability to keep the ball down.

Stammen's yearly innings indicate that may be hitting the wall a little bit.
2006: 138
2007: 128
2008: 151
2009: 123

If he remains in the rotation and finishes the season at his current pace of 6 IP per start over 12 more starts, it will put him right at 200 IP on the season. This is probably a little steep for a rookie adjusting to superior competition. If he continues to struggle, he may be best off finishing the season as the long reliever. An extra few days rest or a DL stint may also freshen his arm and keep at a slightly more sustainable 170 IP (130 ML) for 2009.

Bryce Harper Sweepstakes

Careful guys. KC is making a serious run.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Knowing Your Role

Winning teams are not necessarily full of superstar free agents and five-tool freaks. In fact, some of the best teams, the ones that stick together for several years, thrive because there are players on their roster, spots number twenty-four and twenty-five, who know that they are not there for the limelight. They are there to do one or two things and to do them well.

Take the Yankees eight year run from 1996 to 2003. They won three World Series and lost two more. They built their dynasty from the inside, hitting on a few potential Hall of Famers in Posada, Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, and Rivera. They acquired through free agency several quality players, but nobody who would be considered a superstar outside of Clemens: Martinez, Brosius, O'Neill, Knoblauch, Wells, Cone. Later, they began to stockpile every top free agent, starting with Mussina, Giambi, Brown, etc. However, that lineup can only get a team to the playoffs. Once there, executing flawlessly and eliminating mistakes for five or seven game series wins the title. Specialized role players, like Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton, Luis Sojo, Shane Spencer, Chad Curtis, Joe Girardi, these are the guys that make a difference winning a championship because they know what role they serve on the team.

The one thing that Riggleman has been able to do is establish his player's roles. Many fans feel bad that Willie Harris' is losing playing time since Morgan's acquisition. Willie has always been a team player and has adjusted well to his new role of defensive stopper. Just as a basketball needs a versatile sixth man to provide a spark off the bench, baseball teams need a versatile glove to one or two extra balls a week to take the pressure off the pitchers. Riggleman has even carved out adequate roles for AAAA guys like Anderson Hernandez, Austin Kearns, and Ronnie Belliard. While Dunn and Zimmerman get most of the headlines, most of them warranted, the difference between these 5-4 wins after the All-Star break and those ugly 8-5 losses back in May are the ability of pitchers out of the bullpen to get outs and players fielding their positions.

Guys like Willie Harris can still contribute greatly to winning baseball, even on a team as lost as the Nats. Truth be told, judging by his career numbers, if Willie Harris is a team's everyday outfielder, that team probably isn't playoff caliber. But if he can come in and run down a ball in foul territory to which Willingham may not have reached, or get from first to third on a little slap single, those little things will make the difference a couple days a week. Some players, Lastings Milledge, for example, either couldn't or wouldn't execute these.

The Nats have found a few good building blocks in Lannan, Z1 and Z2, and while they are still a few years away from contending, can make strides in 2010 if they are not greedy and bring in the right players this offseason. It is difficult to entice players to come to a franchise as maligned as Washington's, so the front office really needs to shore up their loose ends (manager, GM, etc) by October.

What We Have Here is Called a "Winning Streak"

Perfect timing too, as the Strasburg contract drive should be wrapping up soon, yet no word is coming from either side. People would be getting a little anxious if they hadn't been distracted by all that success on the field.

So how have the Nats been able to pull of this run? Their bats have been quite lively, but they were still getting shelled while scoring six runs per game back in May. The key has been timing. The Clippard bases loaded Houdini act is a great example, but check out a couple of examples from last night.

Third inning, bases loaded, two out, and Cody Ross rips a hot shot at 3rd base. Lannan had made great pitch, so Ros hit the ball with some interesting topspin, and the ball comes up on Zimmerman and gets away. Unless the ball is fielded cleanly, this is probably a run against any other corner infielder in the league. Zimmerman recovers, bare hands the ball off the infield grass and flicks it upside down to Dunn to beat Ross by a half step at first. Insane play that saved one run for sure, but the way the Nats have played this year, those always compounded into big innings for the opponent.

Fifth inning, runners on the corners, nobody out, second best hitter in the National League up. This also has the makings of a big inning. Lannan does what he does best, throwing a tempting, well-located first pitch that Ramirez rolls into a 6-4-3, scoring the run, but clearing the bases.

Sixth inning, runners on the corners, one out. Emilio Bonafacio is very difficult to double up, and is clearly looking to slap the ball the other way. One run is imminent, except Lannan decides that it is time to roll out two of his six strikeouts to terminate the rally.

This doesn't include the sterling defense turned in night after night by Nyjer Morgan in center, nor does it include MacDougal getting three full count out to collect the save. The have not improved much; they are just doing a better job of playing to their Pythagorean run differential, which is not worst in the league.

The Marlins had owned the Nats for two seasons, right up until the 8th inning Tuesday. I have a hard time believing everything has suddenly changed, but as long as the players do, run with it.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Startling Comeback

You just never can tell with these Nationals. Just when they are pegged as being a poor clutch team, especially in the later innings, they explode for a six run comeback against a Cy Young candidate.

Go figure. I have to say, this is the streakiest team I have EVER seen.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Nationals Baseball

Where .212 career SLG hitters go yard.

Great Relievers

* Converted to reliever

* Deceptive delivery

* Devastating changeup

* Closer mentality

Who am I talking about? Trevor Hoffman or Tyler Clippard? See, you didn't know right away. Clippard was swapped from the Yankees last season, and the organization immediately began transitioning him to a reliever. After dominating AAA competition, he has stepped into broken bullpen and taken the ball in almost every type of situation. The results have been nearly 3 K/BB and a sub 1.00 WHIP. To say he has been the Nats best reliever is like saying Teddy is the worst racing president. A decision going forward will have to be made as to who is going to close games next season. While I would prefer such a valuable commodity not get pigeonholed into a role that may not see many opportunities, away from other high leverage situations, Clippard belongs in the closer's role.

Hell, Hoffman was even drafted as a SS, suffered a couple serious arm injuries, and has continued to own the 9th. MacDougal is a great comeback story, but going forward, Clippard should own the 9th when possible.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Swipeophobia

Alan Wiggins, who stole 66 bases in 1983, is rolling over in his grave.

Fact: Other than Nyjer Morgan (who was traded to the Nats a month ago), the Washington Nationals have only ONE player with over 5 stolen bases. In fact, there are a handful of individual players who have roughly the same amount of steals as the Nats' entire ballclub (Ellsbury, Crawford, Bourn, Upton, etc.)

Who's basecoaching this timid team, Jay Hilgenberg?! It's not like making the 3rd out while attempting to steal second base is going to result in lost momentum during a crucial point in the wild-card hunt.
Nats, your fans desperately want to see you begin playing like you've got nothing left to lose! Because.......well.......you don't!!! And if you don't do it for the single-digit thousands that still show up to Granite City along the Anacostia, do it for Alan. C'mon, look at that smile.

"It knew it was going to be bad when I was nominated. I did not know it would be this bad."


That quote from Gutter's Senate hearings in PCU more or less sums up today's findings.

Dave from NNN alerted me to the Nats struggles with runners on last week, but today Chico laid it all out.

The Nats flat out do not hit with runners on. Some of it is bad luck, hitting line drives at people, but every team has a little of that. The Nats struggle the most in the following three areas:

* picked off/caught stealing

* Ground into double plays

* Called third strikes

First, it should be noted that these are execution issues. Nobody needs to have the God given physical tools of... (searching for a player who used his God given tools without chemically enhancing them)... Tony Gwynn to avoid those three bullet points above.

The Nats get picked off way more often than they should, and this is particularly disconcerting considering they just started giving base runners the green light upon the arrival of Nyjer Morgan. Before you say that this doesn't affect their poor hitting in the clutch, getting picked off first does change the dynamics of the at bat if there is less than two outs, and if there is two outs, well, phooey. The Nats have stolen 46 bases and been caught 26 times, a sterling 63.8% success rate. The NL average is 71.4% on 17% more attempt. As you have witnessed, the Nats have been killing many rallies before the hitter has a chance to do anything about it.

The Nats ground into 16% more double plays than the league average. Right now, that is playing to about one per week. It may not seem like much, but when Zimm and Kearns reach for those fastballs low and away, they kill any chance for a big inning. One more big inning per week probably adds 6-10 wins to the season total. Both Zimm and Kearns started the season driving the ball into the air, but each hit mid-season (or in Kearns case, mid-career) slumps. Zimm has been hitting better of late, but once again has aspirations of leading the league. Simple situational hitting teaches batters how to avoid these by laying off and going the other way. Wil Nieves doesn't hit the ball more than 200 feet, but rarely puts himself into a 6-4-3 because he will hit opposite field on balls pitched to the outer half.

The Nats are fourth in the NL with 795 strikeouts. They parlay this by drawing the second most walks in the NL. They are a patient team, which gets a lot of runners on first base, and is reflected in their team OBP. However, the Nats take take 30% of their overall strikeouts looking, which of course leads the league. Adam Dunn is one of the main culprits, as he lays back and waits for a mistake to crush. But this doesn't excuse the number of other hitters for not playing more aggressively with two strikes. The Nats have worked the pitch count well this season (2nd in pitches per PA in the NL) but this is not helping them with runners in scoring position and the pitcher attacking the zone to prevent walking in the run.

Points two and three may contradict slightly, as being passive may lead to more strikeouts looking, while a more aggressive approach may lead to more double plays. Other successful teams find a balance, or lean to one extreme or the other. The Nats somehow play both extremes, which is a recipe for losing baseball.