GM Mike Rizzo had to hope a few more positives would fall into place this March. Alas, many things have looked much the same. There has been the bullpen, erratic starting pitching, poor defense, and an inability to push across as many runs as the other hitters. But not all has gone wrong, some guys have seized the day and proven that they are worthy of playing in the Show.
Seized the Day: Willie Harris
When Elijah Dukes was released, it is hard to imagine that Willie was atop of the pecking order for at bats representing the right field position. The Nats clearly wanted one of the younger options to win the job. All Willie has done is gotten on base, scored runs, and done as much as possible to keep the Nats in games. His defense in one of the corner slots should be well above average, so for a team the received negative value at the 9 last season, this is extremely good news.
Choked on the Bit: Justin Maxwell
Several years ago, the A's brought young 5-tool prospect they thought could be their franchise center fielder for years to come. Ryan Christienson shredded his way from low A to AAA in a year, enough so that the A's relegated projected starter, 26-year old Jason McDonald, to mop up duty. He stuggled with strikeouts as a rookie, getting on base the next year, and despite being handed the starting job three times on a loaded team, never could hold it down for more than a couple weeks at a time. Eventually the A's were forced to trade for Johnny Damon. Justin Maxwell was given a shot last May to do something Dukes on the DL with a hamstring and responded with an 0-16 binge with 10 strikeouts... even Austin Kearns cringed. Excusable given the circumstances, he earned more playing time in September, responding with a .292/.370/.554, albeit with 21 strikeouts and a slightly inflated but not insane BABIP of .375. This spring was supposed to be Maxwell's oyster. His defense, speed, and youth are fact. He was given the opportunity- the only player getting to the dish more is Ian Desmond (talk about contrast)- and shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that he needs another season in AAA, learning how to bat. Sure, he can hit, yes, when the ball hits his bat. However, in the NL East, there are plenty of guys who are pretty good at missing bats. Roger Bernadina should be the extra outfielder when the team breaks camp. If the Nats believe Dukes was expendable because Maxwell is his eventual replacement, they cannot force the issue as outlined in the Oakland example above.
Showing posts with label Willie Harris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Willie Harris. Show all posts
Friday, March 26, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
The Right Field Situation
In 2008, Willie Harris seized the opportunity presented when half the Nationals roster went on the DL or was named "Austin Kearns" (who may be stumbling into a roster spot in Cleveland). He will never be a long term solution, or a guy that will bat .300, but his ability to play defense and capitalize on mistakes (via the walk, occasional long ball, or heady base running) make him a fairly valuable player against right-handed pitching. He posted a WAR of 3.3 in 2008, and will likely be in the range of 3 wins again with 400 plate appearances. Elijah Dukes, on the other hand, after showing that 3-4 win potential in 2008, did nothing with the additional playing time, somehow cratering out negative value.
Many fans and personnel felt sorry that Willie Harris took the shaft last season, complimenting him on his professionalism despite his offensive numbers suffering in the limited playing time. Moving forward, everybody knows Willie is hardly a long term solution at the position, but given the right opportunities, such as platooning against righties and batting behind a running threat like Nyjer Morgan, he should thrive in 2010. And given Dukes' negative clubhouse impact, who is to say a simple move like this isn't worth more than 3 wins?
Next season, maybe Willie Harris gets squeezed out by a free agent, but this year, even with a bat like Jermaine Dye lurking out there, the Nats should trust their locker room. Dye is likely worth negative value (trust me, I had him on my fantasy team and his second half was pretty special) both on the field and in the clubhouse. Yes, maybe if Dukes or Dye had played to their ABSOLUTE BEST, the Nats are a 76 win team as opposed to a 72, but more than likely the team wins 68 instead.
Many fans and personnel felt sorry that Willie Harris took the shaft last season, complimenting him on his professionalism despite his offensive numbers suffering in the limited playing time. Moving forward, everybody knows Willie is hardly a long term solution at the position, but given the right opportunities, such as platooning against righties and batting behind a running threat like Nyjer Morgan, he should thrive in 2010. And given Dukes' negative clubhouse impact, who is to say a simple move like this isn't worth more than 3 wins?
Next season, maybe Willie Harris gets squeezed out by a free agent, but this year, even with a bat like Jermaine Dye lurking out there, the Nats should trust their locker room. Dye is likely worth negative value (trust me, I had him on my fantasy team and his second half was pretty special) both on the field and in the clubhouse. Yes, maybe if Dukes or Dye had played to their ABSOLUTE BEST, the Nats are a 76 win team as opposed to a 72, but more than likely the team wins 68 instead.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Petco Park...
Where offense goes to die. I won't blame the offensive swoon entirely on the Padres home tomb, but as a pull-hitting fly-ball team, the Nationals are likely to struggle here. The Cardinals pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.
Pitching, of course, has been terrific during the losing streak. I think that is what bugs me most about the Nationals. Other than sucking, they have really lacked an identity. They do not suck consistently either. Some weeks, they knock the cover off the ball and pound opponents into scoring 8 runs to win. Other weeks, the offense hibernates while guys like Martin, Mock, and Livan Hernandez pitch like All-Stars.
Clearly, the Nyjer Morgan injury is killing the offense, where leadoff hitters are posting a .105/.227/.227 over the last five games. Willie Harris is out of sync, and Justin Maxwell should be hitting 9th, not 1st.
And for the record, Elijah Dukes stolen base success is currently at 16%. Next worst in baseball, minimum 10 attempts, is KC's David DeJesus at 36%. There is a reason these teams are vying for the #1 pick again: inability to recognize shortcomings. Seriously, stop giving Dukes the green light. He is terrible at stealing bases. For comparison, he has been caught as many times as Michael Bourn... only Bourn has stolen 47 more bases!
But hey, at least the Nats snapped that skid for 1-game losing streaks in Chicago.
Pitching, of course, has been terrific during the losing streak. I think that is what bugs me most about the Nationals. Other than sucking, they have really lacked an identity. They do not suck consistently either. Some weeks, they knock the cover off the ball and pound opponents into scoring 8 runs to win. Other weeks, the offense hibernates while guys like Martin, Mock, and Livan Hernandez pitch like All-Stars.
Clearly, the Nyjer Morgan injury is killing the offense, where leadoff hitters are posting a .105/.227/.227 over the last five games. Willie Harris is out of sync, and Justin Maxwell should be hitting 9th, not 1st.
And for the record, Elijah Dukes stolen base success is currently at 16%. Next worst in baseball, minimum 10 attempts, is KC's David DeJesus at 36%. There is a reason these teams are vying for the #1 pick again: inability to recognize shortcomings. Seriously, stop giving Dukes the green light. He is terrible at stealing bases. For comparison, he has been caught as many times as Michael Bourn... only Bourn has stolen 47 more bases!
But hey, at least the Nats snapped that skid for 1-game losing streaks in Chicago.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Knowing Your Role
Winning teams are not necessarily full of superstar free agents and five-tool freaks. In fact, some of the best teams, the ones that stick together for several years, thrive because there are players on their roster, spots number twenty-four and twenty-five, who know that they are not there for the limelight. They are there to do one or two things and to do them well.
Take the Yankees eight year run from 1996 to 2003. They won three World Series and lost two more. They built their dynasty from the inside, hitting on a few potential Hall of Famers in Posada, Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, and Rivera. They acquired through free agency several quality players, but nobody who would be considered a superstar outside of Clemens: Martinez, Brosius, O'Neill, Knoblauch, Wells, Cone. Later, they began to stockpile every top free agent, starting with Mussina, Giambi, Brown, etc. However, that lineup can only get a team to the playoffs. Once there, executing flawlessly and eliminating mistakes for five or seven game series wins the title. Specialized role players, like Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton, Luis Sojo, Shane Spencer, Chad Curtis, Joe Girardi, these are the guys that make a difference winning a championship because they know what role they serve on the team.
The one thing that Riggleman has been able to do is establish his player's roles. Many fans feel bad that Willie Harris' is losing playing time since Morgan's acquisition. Willie has always been a team player and has adjusted well to his new role of defensive stopper. Just as a basketball needs a versatile sixth man to provide a spark off the bench, baseball teams need a versatile glove to one or two extra balls a week to take the pressure off the pitchers. Riggleman has even carved out adequate roles for AAAA guys like Anderson Hernandez, Austin Kearns, and Ronnie Belliard. While Dunn and Zimmerman get most of the headlines, most of them warranted, the difference between these 5-4 wins after the All-Star break and those ugly 8-5 losses back in May are the ability of pitchers out of the bullpen to get outs and players fielding their positions.
Guys like Willie Harris can still contribute greatly to winning baseball, even on a team as lost as the Nats. Truth be told, judging by his career numbers, if Willie Harris is a team's everyday outfielder, that team probably isn't playoff caliber. But if he can come in and run down a ball in foul territory to which Willingham may not have reached, or get from first to third on a little slap single, those little things will make the difference a couple days a week. Some players, Lastings Milledge, for example, either couldn't or wouldn't execute these.
The Nats have found a few good building blocks in Lannan, Z1 and Z2, and while they are still a few years away from contending, can make strides in 2010 if they are not greedy and bring in the right players this offseason. It is difficult to entice players to come to a franchise as maligned as Washington's, so the front office really needs to shore up their loose ends (manager, GM, etc) by October.
Take the Yankees eight year run from 1996 to 2003. They won three World Series and lost two more. They built their dynasty from the inside, hitting on a few potential Hall of Famers in Posada, Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, and Rivera. They acquired through free agency several quality players, but nobody who would be considered a superstar outside of Clemens: Martinez, Brosius, O'Neill, Knoblauch, Wells, Cone. Later, they began to stockpile every top free agent, starting with Mussina, Giambi, Brown, etc. However, that lineup can only get a team to the playoffs. Once there, executing flawlessly and eliminating mistakes for five or seven game series wins the title. Specialized role players, like Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton, Luis Sojo, Shane Spencer, Chad Curtis, Joe Girardi, these are the guys that make a difference winning a championship because they know what role they serve on the team.
The one thing that Riggleman has been able to do is establish his player's roles. Many fans feel bad that Willie Harris' is losing playing time since Morgan's acquisition. Willie has always been a team player and has adjusted well to his new role of defensive stopper. Just as a basketball needs a versatile sixth man to provide a spark off the bench, baseball teams need a versatile glove to one or two extra balls a week to take the pressure off the pitchers. Riggleman has even carved out adequate roles for AAAA guys like Anderson Hernandez, Austin Kearns, and Ronnie Belliard. While Dunn and Zimmerman get most of the headlines, most of them warranted, the difference between these 5-4 wins after the All-Star break and those ugly 8-5 losses back in May are the ability of pitchers out of the bullpen to get outs and players fielding their positions.
Guys like Willie Harris can still contribute greatly to winning baseball, even on a team as lost as the Nats. Truth be told, judging by his career numbers, if Willie Harris is a team's everyday outfielder, that team probably isn't playoff caliber. But if he can come in and run down a ball in foul territory to which Willingham may not have reached, or get from first to third on a little slap single, those little things will make the difference a couple days a week. Some players, Lastings Milledge, for example, either couldn't or wouldn't execute these.
The Nats have found a few good building blocks in Lannan, Z1 and Z2, and while they are still a few years away from contending, can make strides in 2010 if they are not greedy and bring in the right players this offseason. It is difficult to entice players to come to a franchise as maligned as Washington's, so the front office really needs to shore up their loose ends (manager, GM, etc) by October.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?
I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.
The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).
Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.
Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.
It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.
If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.
There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.
A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.
The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).
Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.
Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.
It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.
If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.
There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.
A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Lannan Gets the Win...
Nice to see him get on the board. He seems to have developed the Ervin Santana complex, though. Lannan can be an effective pitcher on a lot of clubs, but the way the Nats are constructed right now, he is going to suffer through more of the bad starts than the good. He doesn't strike out enough people and is prone to getting hit hard. This would be OK is the Nats had above average outfield defense. However, their outfield defense is certainly below average, and arguably the worst in the NL when Dunn and Milledge are out there.
Manny really should consider Willie Harris in center with Dukes and Kearns on the corners when Lannan pitches, giving Johnson some injury-prevention time on the bench. It takes a little bite out of the offense, but inspiring a little confidence in a young pitcher is better than trying to score 9 every game.
Manny really should consider Willie Harris in center with Dukes and Kearns on the corners when Lannan pitches, giving Johnson some injury-prevention time on the bench. It takes a little bite out of the offense, but inspiring a little confidence in a young pitcher is better than trying to score 9 every game.
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