11-3

Hot and cold.

Those are the words to describe these Nationals. When the team left Atlanta, the eight game winning streak was a distant memory. The offense had hit the wall, the bullpen was showing some flaws... then the rookie starters, Mock and Martin, whose bargain basement expectations leave the fans and the bettors to their own devices, step up with 12 IP, 0 ER, and two big wins. The only blip on the radar has been the profoundly diabolical pitching of Logan Kensing, whose future with the team should be summed up by Jerry Hathaway: "You are no longer of any use to me!" Seriously, that Nats need him right now like a fish needs a bicycle. And they continue to do this with fairly average catching, too much Ronnie Belliard, and no starters with more than 2 years of experience.

With the Strasburg negotiations likely to come up Osaka, the winning baseball is a welcome distraction. I think the Nationals will put forth one last push tomorrow, but if this is the difference between 15 and 30 million, nobody is confident in a deal getting done. If Strasburg were smart, he only needs to look as far as the disaster Aaron Crow has created for himself. Strasburg will be lucky to be offered half of what the Nats are offering him coming of the his college performance and number one pick status. The number five pick coming out of an Indy League cannot command record money.

Hot and cold.

Great story getting Drew Storen all the way to AA before the signing deadline, but not every story can have a happy ending.

Going, Going... GONE!!!

And the citizens rejoiced, alcohol was consumed in vast quantities.

Jest, we know, Garrett Mock pitched OK, but Wil hit a bomb!

Nationals Baseball

Where Bronson Arroyo and Jonny Gomes can turn into the Cy Young and Babe Ruth of our generation.

On a side note, I tried to take the metro home from DC tonight, Orange Line: GWU to Dunn Loring. I cught a metro immediately... luck must be on my side, right?

Halfway between East and West Falls Church, the train starts having "technical issues". This sucks, because I really have to pee. Anyways, a Metro buss picks us up on Idylwood and starts to drive us ahead, only, I swear to God, the bus breaks down, too. There are about ten of us, steaming, waiting... only when the bus picks us up, instead of taking us to Dunn Loring, he takes us back to East Falls Church. Then we have to switch busses AGAIN, then get driven the rest of the way home.

I get dropped off at my car after midnight. As I attempt to drive home, I realize that the ramp to my house is blocked and I am diverted onto the beltway south... for another 8 miles to turn around and take back roads home.

I left DC shortly after 10:30 and got home at 12:25, an 8.5 journey taking nearly 2 hours...

One time I had to walk home from Rosslyn to West Springfield and it took just under 3 hours to do the 13 miles... piss drunk. I'd like a refund Metro...

Still Have Yet to Suffer the One-Game Losing Streak

A total anomaly. But at least the bullpen appears to be back in form.

I'll try to break down Craig Stammen later today, but no guarantees.

Lannan Struggles

It wasn't just one bad outing, but John Lannan has really struggled in his last three starts. Everyone has to remember that despite being labeled "Ace", Lannan is only 24 and is not immune to slumps, dead arm, and mental fatigue. Last season, he averaged 5.87 innings per start. This season, he is up to 6.48. While his overall pitch count per start is only up 2 from 94.7 to 96.6, that still makes a difference when combining it with being on pace for 34 starts and pitching on four days rest for 55% of his starts, as opposed to just 43% last season. These little things do add up, and having been labeled the "Ace", with the added pressure to go deep into games, John Lannan probably just needs a vacation. Throwing the ball all over the place helps nobody.

Right now, he should be scheduled to pitch Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. That probably will not help with any fatigue issues.

Tommy John's Legacy

Here are a couple links to familiarize yourself with the road Jordan Zimmermann will now face.

USAToday

The Good Point

One of my favorite pitchers, Tim Hudson, underwent TJ last August. He began his minor league rehab assignment in July and has been deemed ready to go (though with Tommy Hanson dominating, there isn't an opening in the rotation), so it is not out of the question to see Flash next year. A successful operation will have him at 100% for 2011, though.

Every Player is His Own Entitiy

I hate how people say that Jordan Zimmermann's tragic MRI diagnosis is going to give Scott Boras additional leverage going into the final week of negotiations. Stephen Strasburg's desire to play major league baseball in 2010 has nothing to with the amount of damage to Flash's ulnar collateral ligament. Jordan Zimmermann is not a party to these negotiations, nor is Dr. James Andrews.

The only parties that really have any bearing in these talks are Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, and Lerner, Inc. And you have to give Kasten credit for keeping it that way, leaving the media and the blogosphere in the dark.

What may impact the Strasburg signing is Washington's decision to waive and keep Cristian Guzman's 2010 salary. Cristian Guzman and his limited defense are not impacting these negotiations, just the money committed to him.

Remember, Stephen Strasburg had a year of college eligibility left. He chose to leave to cash in on his maximum value. He does himself no good turning down the Nationals to play Independent ball. I think Scott Boras may be selling his prowess of moving Luke Hochevar up from the #40 pick with the Dodgers to KC taking him #1 the following year (a comically stupid move by KC, but hey, I guess they got their guy). While Hochevar has not been a bust yet, he is still barely league average, and by losing a year of his career to stay out of ML ball, he upped his offer from 3 to 5 million. The only way this amount of money makes any impact to the lifetime earnings of a major league pitcher is if he never makes it to arbitration. A league average pitcher, like Scott Olsen, will make close to 3 million at arbitration. By not holding out, he reaches this threshold sooner, reaches free agency sooner, and extends his career one extra season. If Adam Eaton can cash out a 3 year 24 million dollar contract, any league average free agent can grab 5 million here and there, and last I checked, 5 million is greater than 2 million.

If Strasburg signs, barring injury, he will have his free agent clock ticking on May 1st. The Nats have no reason to keep him off the roster as he will sell tickets. If he lands somewhere else, that remains up in the air. The big bonus is great, but holding out for a bigger one only pays off if the pitcher doesn't make the bigs.

Steady Improvement (Strasburg Impact)

The Nationals are quickly climbing in the win column, and with their run differential already better than Kansas City and San Diego, they are hovering in the same ballpark as Cincinnati and Baltimore. It was impossible for the Nationals to go 2-5 every week, losing games 8-6 and winning 7-2. As expected, they are beginning to regress to the mean. What was not expected was that Rizzo would pull a couple of good moves to make the team more balanced. They have the ability to score in bunches, and unlike in May, this team is confident it can hold a lead.

This improvement likely means that the Nationals will be hard pressed to finish with the league's worst record. That burden will fall to the Royals, who probably couldn't win a series against most AAA teams. The AAA Pirates are also in free-fall and Sean Burnett may get the last laugh on comments he said about the Pirates last week.

The question now is how is this impacting the Strasburg negotiations? My gut feeling three weeks ago, prior to the trade deadline, was that if Washington did not provide them with an offer they could not refuse, they would walk. San Diego was in a position to draft #3 (the Nats would be 1 & 2) and he would likely prefer to play for his home team for a "discount".

Now, with KC, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Baltimore all tanking like this is the NBA lottery, the chances of Strasburg falling to San Diego with any leverage is nil. Prior to the draft, I felt Washington held the better hand in the negotiations, and now with several teams struggling and the Nats winning, they may be deluding themselves that they can compete (let's be honest, Stan Kasten isn't in it to win) without the 50 million dollar man.

I cannot imagine Strasburg risking the same fate as Luke Hochevar, landing in baseball purgatory for five years for a couple extra dollars. The deal probably will wind down until the final hours, but at this point, the Nationals are as appealing as any of the other likely top 5 destinations.

Guzman Claimed Off Waivers!?!

It doesn't mean anything yet, but it shows that maybe there was a trade market for the shortstop all along. The Red Sox are a team who have had SS issues all season, and a three game sweep at the Yankees may have been just what the Nats needed to get a panic move.

I have no problems with Guzman as a baseball player. He is streaky as a pair of drawers after the Chili Cookoff, but as long as he is hitting over .300, he is an effective major league hitter. I just don't think he has the range to his left to play short any more and is more of a 2B-3B guy defensively.

The Nats should get value for Guzman while they can. They waited too long with Nick Johnson and got little. The savings will help going into the off season, and even if the only get a long shot in return, it is one more step to reloading the farm system, which is probably more important than the half win Guzman will provide these last two months. More than likely, he will slump and lower any potential trade value he may have left.

Make the move... unlike the Johnson and Beimel trades, the other party is the desperate one.

Bobbleheads

I'm sure I will post a picture of the Big Donkey at some point, but here are the highlights of Saturday's American baseball contest at Nationals Park on the Anacostia.

* Nyjer Morgan made several routine outs in center field. These are only routine for Nyjer Morgan, as most other Nats outfielders would need a rocket up their ass just t get to the ball, only to have it glance off the end of their glove for a triple.

* Willie Harris' triple. The triple is almost always the most exciting play in baseball. Even if there is no play at third, there is always the anticipation there could be.

* Alberto Gonzalez making to great defensive plays to keep the Backs off the board in the 5th. Either those get in for would result in a run and up comes Reynolds for a chance to break the game open. Ryan Zimmerman played typically stellar D as well.

* The eighth inning starting at 8:50... wow!

* Each time Chris Young stepped into the batter's box, I called for the strikeout. I was one game ending pitch from being 4 for 4. The Golden Sombrero was lurking for Young, easily the most overmatched hitter getting regular plate appearances now.

* Josh Willingham not being close on any of the first four pitches Haren offered him, prompting me to note that maybe it wouldn't be his night... CRACK!!

* Hit a 380 foot fly ball to center, prompting me to note that it was about as far as he is going to hit the ball. He responded later with a 400 foot home run to right-center. Well played, Mr. Bard. Foiled again.

* Garrett Mock was about 4 feet from six shutout innings of four hit ball. The defense helped, and the Backs, outside of Drew, Reynolds, and Montero, are a AAA lineup, but Mock needed a boost like this. It was like the International League for him!

* It is strange watching them battle back in games and hold on with stellar defense. It is amazing how one or two personnel moves can improve attitude and morale this much. The problem with their spring roster was that there wasn't a "leader" on the team. No vocal presence. If there is nobody to point a finger when something goes wrong, or something has to get accomplished, everybody is going to sit back and watch the ship sink. The team brings in Nyjer Morgan, who never stops talking, things start to get done. The team lets Manny Acta and his stoic in-game expression go, and guys start getting to balls they weren't.

For the record, it is Goddamn near impossible to generate a winning streak of any kind sending out four rookie pitchers. A seven game streak reflects upon 25 guys doing their best to beat the other 25 guys night in and out. That and Josh Willingham is the second best hitter in the NL right now... well, maybe third.