Second-to-Last Update

I feel that on Sunday morning, we will probably know all we need to know other than a couple seedings.  Nova is the #1 overall, Gonzaga cannot lose Top 4 ranking with Kansas, Louisville, Baylor dead and UNC/Duke squaring off.  UCLA could bump Oregon from the 2 west spot... PAC-12 has a lot at stake.  Kentucky looks safe as a 2.  SMU grabs the final 4 seed for now, but get shipped to Milwaukee.  They may want to lose just to stay in the south/west and not have to play the Big 10 in a midwest location.

Teams in trouble: Syracuse, USC, URI
Late surges and varying strengths of wins doom these three.  Syracuse can't win away, USC can't beat the top 50, and URI can't stop losing to bad teams.  Kansas State, despite their slide, does what all three of these teams do not.

Probably safe, but definitely holding their breath as autobids are determined: Providence, Illinois State
The Friars, well, just aren't very good.  The did, however, take advantage of the hand they were dealt and won several more games than they should have.  The really needed to drop that depleted Creighton team again to assure passage.  The Redbirds, despite the schedule, flat out bring a better team to the table than any of the teams in trouble, and will present terrible matchup problems for whoever draws them.  If they get St. Mary's or UVA, first to 46 wins.

Teams that are safe: Vanderbilt, Xavier, Wake Forest
These teams actually look capable of of second weekend runs.

Teams with work to do: California, Georgia, TCU, Houston, Indiana
Cal probably bumps USC with a run to the PAC-12 title game.  I can't see this conference getting 5 teams as top heavy as it is.  Georgia may get an injury pass if they can run to the SEC title game with another big win.  TCU and Indiana are way behind the 8-ball, but the Hoosiers can point to November and March and make a case.  TCU needs to win it all.  Not sure how Houston, despite being right on the cut line, can leapfrog their way in without snatching the autobid in the process

Total Wildcard: Nevada
If the do not get the autobid, they will still sit right at 40 or so on all the major rankings, 10-30 spots ahead of many of these teams, same situation as URI and ISU.  I can totally see the committee ignoring a down year in the MWC and opting for the tradition of a multi-bid conference.

As always, this bracket will self destruct in 5 seconds.

Rapid Update, 8 MAR

Ah, a night off.

No changes, just locking in some autobids.  St. Mary's will likely slide a line or two after some of these first round games shake out.

Also, here is the bubble I am working off of... Red is first four out, Orange next four, Maroon next four after that, and white are teams not really being considered.

Monmouth has one of those completely unreasonable NFL playoff scenarios that require ties and margin of victory and multiple opponents strength of schedule, but losses by Vandy, Xavier, Syracuse, Wake, KSU, USC, Utah, Cal, and Iowa and they are right back in this thing.

Rapid Update, 7 March

UNCW to the bye field, Providence pushed back to play-in (temporarily) and Syracuse in to a 12 bye slot.  Had to go this way to keep conference integrity without overhauling 4/5/6 seeds.

ETSU and Iona lock in their slots.

Rapid Update, 6 MARCH

Fort Wayne out, Mike Daum and SDST in.  Check him out.  The Jacks will be an underdog, but if you check out Daum's numbers, he is one of the most dominating players in the NCAA.

Did some lower seed maintenance to get teams closer to home, flopping Siena and Northern Kentucky, leading to an interesting NKY/UK game.  Also flopped Texas Southern and Jacksonville State... TSU has the RPI to justify getting on the 15 line.  NC Central is likely to slide to the 16 line based on the strength of the MEAC vs the OVC and Southland fields.  Quality of win isn't there.

Weekend Bracket Analysis

So I was just pondering... what is the fewest road/neutral wins a team has had to claim an at-large bid.  Right now Syracuse is sitting at 2, facing Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament.  I just don't see this happening.  I also see a lot of middle class fodder for that last spot, so I am going out on a limb and saying College of Charleston wins tomorrow in a tight, high scoring game, and UNCW clings to that 68th spot.

So without further adieu

Not really there, but we will run them through the credits:
Illinois, Clemson, California, Georgia

Uh, Cal, like what the fuck.  In 2 do-or-die games you scored a TOTAL of 90 points?  A win over Oregon State isn't going to secure a bid, and a do-over against Utah may only get you back into the discussion.  Terrible week for the Bears.

The "Next Four Out":
Utah, Houston, BYU, Kansas State
BYU can get fair consideration with a split, but lose to the Gaels and it's NIT all the way.  Utah moves up by virtue of Cal falling flat.  Houston likely need to win the AAC to get in, and KSU probably gets in outright with a win over Baylor.

First Four Out:
Syracuse, Xavier, Monmouth, Iowa
Syracuse is covered above.  They just should not get in based on the fact they avoid road games.  Plus, they lost to BC.  Xavier just got screwed by the schedule, as playing DePaul twice in a row is a total lose-lose scenario.  They need a good outing against Butler.  Monmouth's status will slide as next week shakes out.  It's very unlikely they will receive serious consideration a week, but 2006 Air Force stole a 13 seed... the committee owes them for a dick job last year.  Iowa is a fascinating team, but just doesn't have the cards right now.  2 more wins will get them there.

Last Four In:
Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington
Wake Forest and Seton Hall get dynamic big men into the dance for an entertaining showdown to enter the West region, while URI and UNCW square off a the only two mid-majors outside ISU really being considered.

Like, Seriously, Don't lose in the first round of your conference tourney:
Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Providence, USC
In a "normal year" I don't think any of these four teams are getting a sniff.  But double digit loss teams are en vogue after Syracuse's run last year.  USC has awful computer numbers, Providence is a total house of cards that can be knocked down at any time, and Vandy WILL HAVE FIFTEEN LOSSES.  Honestly, if there was anyone in the MWC that looked spicy to take down Nevada, I'd move them into the at-large pool... don't dive into this one- it is pretty shallow.

No movement on the 1 seeds, and even if Gonzaga fails to win the WCC, they are still going to be good for the 1 out West.  Two seeds get a shake-up, with Kentucky leaping Florida, Baylor jumping into the mix, and Duke edging out Purdue and UCLA for the final spot.  Butler was fun while it lasted as a 2.

Boom!

Rapid Bracket Analysis- 3 MAR

Likely, the next big Update will come Sunday/Monday.  Cal and Houston forced my hand and things are sliding every which way.  Everything below a 9 seed is rock solid.  Maryland and VCU flip spots to accommodate URI into the South as a 12 seed bye.  Houston drops off the 13 line to the second four out, replaced by Seton Hall, who faces off against Wake.  Xavier will likely have to wait a week to get another crack at this.  Cal falls to the 12 seed play-in game vs Cuse.  Providence and USC are the beneficiaries, locking in 12 seeds.

After Sunday/Monday, will likely only capture auto bids until the fun starts Weds/Thurs.

Quick Fix

Creighton DEFINITELY will not be playing Marquette in the first round... forgot to shift Iowa State as well

Rapid Bracket Analysis- 2 MAR

Well, Xavier is still an NCAA-eligible team that will be considered by the committee, but I cannot imagine them looking past the fork sticking out of their back.  With so much praise being heaped on how well Carrington and Delgado are playing for Seton Hall, Marquette's unconscious shooting, and Providence's... ability to play 40 minutes better than the other team, Xavier has no buzz, and beating DePaul by 50 twice is not going to change that.  They beat Butler, then we can talk about them getting their 10 seed back.  Seton Hall is in the best shape to sneak in instead, but last night belonged to the Demon Deacon's (and Northwestern, but different level of the bubble).  The committee will want an excuse to get some good airtime for one of the top big men in the country, so the play-in game is fitting.  The bracket shifts 5 seeds to accommodate the extra ACC team, with UVA going to the South and SMU heading west.  Houston jumps over to the 12 line to grab Syracuse, while Providence gets Wake.  URI is the big beneficiary, riding into a bye on the 11 line, and 7 seeds Creighton and Dayton flop regions to balance the A-10 and Big East teams.

One other bracketing note.  As the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East crowd the field, all attempts to avoid conference rematches will be taken.  Region semifinals are the earliest they can meet, but in these cases, I have aligned lower seeded teams (i.e. 12 Syracuse, 9 Miami; 10 MSU, 11 Northwestern) basically requiring upsets to occur to make it happen.  Favorites should be expected to play through the rest of the country.  The closest instance I have is 1 UNC and 5 UVA... and that is the conference finals, and would be fun again.

Final Results for Conference Predictions

Back in November, breakdowns and prediction tables were offered for each of the 32 conferences.  At the end of December, we covered what was learned and updated those forecasts.  Now that the season is over, it’s time to see how we did!

Each conference will be scored individually based on 3 sets criteria.  I tried to keep the formula simple to keep from confusing Excel too much.  The first set is how the preseason picks faired against the final results.  10 points awarded for getting the standing position correct, 5 point for missing by 1 position, 2 points for missing by 2 positions, and -5 for anything else.  Similar scoring is done on the midseason, or Realtime, updates, reduced to 5, 3, 1, and -5.  Finally, 5 bonus points are awarded for every block of 3 consecutive correct picks, 10 points for a block of 5, and 20 points for a block of 8.

MVC	Preseason	Realtime	Final	P-PTS	R-PTS	Total
1	Wichita State	Wichita State	Wichita State	10	5	15
2	Northern Iowa	Illinois State	Illinois State	2	5	7
3	Southern Illinois	Loyola	Southern Illinois	10	-5	5
4	Illinois State	Evansville	Northern Iowa	2	1	3
5	Missouri State	Missouri State	Loyola	-5	1	-4
6	Evansville	Northern Iowa	Missouri State	5	3	8
7	Indiana State	Southern Illinois	Bradley	5	-5	0
8	Bradley	Indiana State	Evansville	2	-5	-3
9	Drake	Drake	Drake	10	5	15
10	Loyola	Bradley	Indiana State	-5	1	-4
			Bonus	0		42

Wichita State and Drake were the only two teams I nailed.  Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa were all over the place, but ended up both back up near the top of the table (which more illustrates how weak the MVC was this year.  I had a big preseason whiff on Loyola, and then they fizzled down the stretch.  After the Sycamores upset Butler, they hit the wall hard.  No bonus points here.

I suspect that there will be one or two conferences that go into triple digits, and one or two that fall below 20.  Most will be right around 50.

Thoughts?

March 1 Bracket

Vandy needs to wait till Saturday to play their way in.  Providence now owns the spot, getting the play-in game against Syracuse.  USC gets bumped South to face SMU.