Update: ACC

Atlantic Coast

Summary: Up until a week ago, you could say 1-12, the ACC was the deepest ever.  That isn’t saying much, because who has 15 teams, but this was a 12 bid league, with only Georgia Tech, BC, and Syracuse on the outside looking in.  Now to maintain that relative strength, the right teams have to win the right games.  Then all the Duke stuff started happening, Wake Forest ran into a wall, and NC State is doing just enough to make the NIT.  That leaves 10 deep, with an ambitious outlook on Pitt and Miami, the latter of which has yet to beat anyone of significance.  It is hard to argue with how good the rest of the teams have played.  Florida State owns a fluky neutral site loss to Temple. Notre Dame took back to back neutral site losses to Nova and Purdue.  UNC lost at Indiana and lost the “game of the year” to Kentucky.  Virginia got pressed by West Virginia.  Duke got Masoned at the Garden by Kansas.  Louisville got tripped up in Nassau by Baylor.  The Hokies blew a big lead in Fullerton to Texas A&M.  Clemson dropped games to Xavier and Oklahoma in Orlando.  Miami also got stung in Orlando by Iowa State and Florida.  Pittsburgh is the only one with a true WTF, pairing a respectable loss to SMU with a terrible loss to Duquesne.

What I got wrong: Clemson is a tough out at home, and they schedule strong in the non-conference slate.  The momentum should carry them to .500.  I was way to high on Larranaga’s ability to make lemonade a second straight season on the Beach.  They are still a Top 50 team, but have work to do.  They cannot slip up again the bottom 5 again.  Most of this is pretty close, with big movers Florida State and Clemson.

Prognosis: Duke has a bullseye on their backs as they clearly do not play on the same level without Coach K righting the officials and putting the fear in the players.  It’s too much to overcome in this conference.  They are looking at 3^rd, possibly 5^th.  Despite the hot start, do you really see the Irish finishing better than 6^th?  Florida State needs to win on the road in this conference to maintain that glidepath.  They got one at UVA, but have Duke and Clemson late, and Notre Dame/Pitt the week before that.  It reeks of 12-6.  I don’t see Georgia Tech, BC, and Wake competing for an actual bid this year, and some how Syracuse is tanking even harder than imagined.  So based on the way the top 5 are playing, Duke has the most potential, Virginia is the most consistent, North Carolina can punish anyone in the nation, but it’s Louisville’s defense that is giving the most fits.  Many teams are showing that aggressive defense may be the best offense.  In this case, the press forces teams to attack fast, and the lane is usually open, so they are willing to give up a 60% 2 point basket over a 40% 3 point basket.  It’s close, and I’ll give the edge to UNC, but nobody is excited to play the Cardinals.  Top ten are in, with UNC on the 1 line, Louisville and UVA on the 2 Duke is a 3, Florida State a 4, Notre Dame a 6, Virginia Tech a 7, Miami and Clemson 9s, and Pittsburgh a 10.  Actual seeds may shift based on the s-curve.  NC State is among the first 10 out, and the rest really have to finish over .500 in the league and grab a scalp in the ACC tourney to move up.

ACC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Duke	North Carolina
2	Virginia	Louisville
3	Louisville	Virginia
4	North Carolina	Duke
5	Miami, FL	Florida State
6	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
7	Florida State	Virginia Tech
8	Virginia Tech	Miami, FL
9	North Carolina State	Clemson
10	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
11	Syracuse	North Carolina State
12	Georgia Tech	Wake Forest
13	Clemson	Syracuse
14	Wake Forest	Boston College
15	Boston College	Georgia Tech