Updates: Ohio Valley and Big Sky

Ohio Valley

Summary: Well, maybe Morehead State’s season wasn’t sabotaged, but the expectations are certainly reduced with the coaching situation in flux.  This is far from a bad team; just one that lacks the composure to turn the tables on opponents and win close contests.  They should have the upper hand in many OVC games, just probably not against Belmont and Tennessee State.

What I got wrong: Jacksonville State- Ray Harper has slowed the team down and they have improved dramatically on offense.  Not sure Erik Durham keeps up his pace, but he has been huge. Adding the big Lithuanian is also a game changer in a conference built around speed.

Prognosis: Jax slows down a little.  Murray State and Eastern Illinois will throw their hat in the ring.  It looks to be a long season for Tennessee Tech and Austin Peay.  The conference, as it seems for the past decade, is Belmont’s to take or defer.  They play well enough to beat the teams they should beat, and play competitively against the top 100, but I don’t see this as my “they are going to drop Duke” lock.  Distance shooting is a problem, and Evan Bradds is only taking them so far.  TSU’s suffocating defense and road performances at MTSU, NCST, and Duke are encouraging, but probably no enough.

OVC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Belmont	Belmont
2	Morehead State	Tennessee State
3	Murray State	Murray State
4	Tennessee State	Jacksonville State
5	Eastern Illinois	Eastern Illinois
6	Tennessee Tech	Morehead State
7	Eastern Kentucky	Eastern Kentucky
8	Tennessee Martin	Tennessee Martin
9	Austin Peay	Tennessee Tech
10	Jacksonville State	Austin Peay
11	SIU Edwardsville	SIU Edwardsville
12	Southeast Missouri State	Southeast Missouri State

Big Sky

Summary: This is the worst Sky Conference I can remember.  Typically, one team will fall in that “Bottom 50” pit, but right now, they have four squads that are completely helpless.  Weber State and Montana look mediocre enough and played a thriller the other night, but neither could be expected to challenge a 1 or 2 seed.  North Dakota’s schedule has been terrible, but they did sneak in a win over Bakersfield, split with NDST, and competitive losses at Iowa and Northern Iowa (and Wright St, but that anywhere near a tourney team).

What I got wrong: Northern Arizona… I’m not even sure where to start other than Yikes! Combine one of the worst shooting teams in the country with non-existent defense and the recipe for disaster is complete (Ditto to Sacto St).  Jack Murphy’s teams have exhibited these tendencies every year, but never this extreme.  Can’t imagine he makes to the offseason. Northern Colorado has played through their issues and challenging schedule and come out strong on the other side.  I wouldn’t call them a contender, but certainly better than the drek.

Prognosis: They will be very fortunate if their bid avoids the play-in line, and that is not even accounting for conference play further depressing their RPI numbers.  A little reshuffling at the top, but the major changes are dropping no shows NAU, IDST, and SAC.  Idaho State can at least point to missing personnel as a factor, so they get the nod as the best of the worst.

SKY	Preseason	Realtime
1	Weber State	Weber State
2	North Dakota	North Dakota
3	Northern Arizona	Montana
4	Montana	Idaho
5	Idaho	Northern Colorado
6	Idaho State	Montana State
7	Sacramento State	Eastern Washington
8	Montana State	Portland State
9	Eastern Washington	Idaho State
10	Portland State	Southern Utah
11	Northern Colorado	Northern Arizona
12	Southern Utah	Sacramento State