Updates: Horizon and Colonial

Horizon

Summary:  The Horizon is also an example of a conference I feel is underachieving.  Valpo has a nice resume with a couple good wins (Bama, BYU, URI), good loss (Kentucky), a missed opportunity (Oregon without Brooks), and a fluky loss that will like trend away from the sub-200 zone (Santa Clara).  Oakland was not as ambitious, but grabbed a win against Georgia, a missed opportunity against a struggling Spartan team, and close contests against peers Nevada and Northeastern.  Wright State can be frisky at times.  Other than that, there is a lot of disappointment on the court.

What I got wrong: For a team that allegedly plays at pace, Green Bay has very little to show for it.  They rate out below average offensively, and have built their record off 3 OT wins, 2 non-D1 games, and a favorable start in conference against the bottom of the bracket.  Northern Kentucky has overachieved to this point… nice story, but a .500 team.  And Detroit… oh boy.  It’s way too early to be calling for Bacari Alexander’s head, but Ray McCallum did not leave the cupboard that bare.  The defense has been non-existent.

Prognosis:  Somebody has to finish near .500…  Cleveland State has the most potential to get the crap together and steal some games.  Other than that, Valpo and Oakland are in a straight runaway.

HZ	Preseason	Realtime
1	Green Bay	Valparaiso
2	Valparaiso	Oakland
3	Oakland	Wright State
4	Cleveland State	Green Bay
5	Wright State	Northern Kentucky
6	Detroit	Cleveland State
7	Youngstown State	Youngstown State
8	Northern Kentucky	Illinois Chicago
9	Illinois Chicago	Milwaukee
10	Milwaukee	Detroit

Colonial

Summary: Another conference decimated by defections, the CAA is no longer a true mid-major with the potential of sending multiple entrants to the Big Dance every year. Wilmington and Charleston are going to test that assertion.  Nobody is sleeping on Northeastern, who after a slow start, that I expected to continue all season, have reeled off wins against Michigan State, Vermont, and Oakland, adding to their win over UConn. The Cougars and Seahawks are polar opposites in terms of style, with Earl Grant favoring a deliberate strategy, and Kevin Keatts running and chucking.  I liken UNCW to a poor man’s West Virginia and CoC to a poor man’s Virginia.  JMU, Drexel, and Delaware are really dragging this conference back, though JMU looks to be righting the ship after an unexpected leadership change.  Elon nearly stole one at Georgetown then got tripped up in Greensboro against Duke.

What I got wrong: Other than Northeastern, nothing.  Solid read on the CAA, even without Mason on board for local coverage.

Prognosis: Wilmington is one of the 32 best teams in the country.  Yes, even in 2017, with heavy saturation at the top of the BCS conferences, the Seahawks matchup favorably.  They struggle with depth, which could become an issue in tourney play, or if somebody goes down.  There style leaves them prone to upsets if the shots don’t fall (which they have not and they continue to roll) or the refs get greedy.If Charleston steals a few games and wins the conference tourney, a 5-6 loss UNCW should be on the 11 line.  If Northeastern (or William and Mary?) blows things up and they fail to make the CAA championship game, it could spell trouble.

CAA	Preseason	Realtime
1	UNC Wilmington	UNC Wilmington
2	College of Charleston	College of Charleston
3	Towson	Northeastern
4	Elon	Elon
5	William & Mary	William & Mary
6	Hofstra	Towson
7	Northeastern	Hofstra
8	James Madison	James Madison
9	Delaware	Drexel
10	Drexel	Delaware