Updates: Mountain West and West Coast

Finally, legitimate multi-bid leagues!

Mountain West

Summary: The wheels came off quickly for San Diego State, as the Aztecs blew several games in which they were the clear favorite.  They have never been great offensively under Fisher, but they have sunk into the “bad” to “really bad.”  Injuries are not an excuse here.  Outside a day one blowout to Saint Mary’s, Nevada has played to form and should get the necessary wins to be on the bubble for an 11 seed.  Boise State has the best win in conference over SMU, but need to take advantage of a gimpy Dillon Brooks as that would have looked great on the resume.  I am sticking to my guns that Colorado State is still a year away.  Craig Neal is probably Dead Man Walking in Albuquerque.  The bottom four in this conference have shaped up exactly as expected.

What I got wrong: Well, at least I didn’t have the Aztecs up top like everyone else, but I did expect them to back into the dance.  That probably will not happen.  After stealing a win from Nevada, Fresno State reverted to form by choking one down against lowly SJST.

Prognosis: It warrants mentioning that kenpom projects a single loss for SDST from here on out, so they could right the ship, but it is unlikely given the performance.  Nevada will clear the Broncos by a game or two in the standings.  Wyoming probably has the best shot of making a move out of the basement to the middle of the pack.  It is truly amazing how poorly this conference has shot thus far.

MWC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Nevada	Nevada
2	San Diego State	Boise State
3	New Mexico	San Diego State
4	Fresno State	Colorado State
5	Boise State	New Mexico
6	Utah State	Utah State
7	Colorado State	Fresno State
8	Air Force	Air Force
9	UNLV	UNLV
10	Wyoming	Wyoming
11	San Jose State	San Jose State

West Coast

Summary: It’s so hard to quantify the WCC.  Gonzaga is one of the top 8 teams in the country, and the Gaels are right behind them in the top 20.  Neither will be really tested except by each other, which if St. Mary’s cannot split, they will go into the WCC tourney with BS talk about how they can’t win the big ones.  Arlington is their only blemish, with wins over Nevada and Dayton, and they couldn’t have expected UAB and Stanford would end up mediocre wins.  BYU has done just enough to play themselves out of the tournament, but are so clearly the next best team that they just need to steal one or two out of five against the big guys to improve their profile.

What I got wrong: Pepperdine is terrible.  They started 4-1 with a suspect loss to Central Michigan, but then the wheels, in the form of Amadi Udenyi’s Achilles, came off in a hurry.  San Francisco is on the rise, but looking at .500.

Prognosis: These schools, in order to compete, must find a niche the way Randy Bennett has.  Right now, this conference is 3 horses competing for 2 spots, hoping to get a charge from Pepperdine (next season if Udenyi get a redshirt), Santa Clara, or San Francisco.  Loyola Marymount has spent 2 decades climbing back to mediocrity.  Gonzaga is almost guaranteed a 1 seed, and the Gaels are in the 4/5 range.  BYU is still hanging around the play in games, but will likely suffer the same fate as last season, running themselves straight to the NIT.

WCC	Preseason	Realtime
1	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
2	Saint Mary's	Saint Mary's
3	Pepperdine	Brigham Young
4	Brigham Young	San Francisco
5	Santa Clara	Santa Clara
6	Loyola Marymount	Loyola Marymount
7	San Francisco	Portland
8	San Diego	Pepperdine
9	Portland	San Diego
10	Pacific	Pacific