Shaking Things Out

GM Mike Rizzo had to hope a few more positives would fall into place this March. Alas, many things have looked much the same. There has been the bullpen, erratic starting pitching, poor defense, and an inability to push across as many runs as the other hitters. But not all has gone wrong, some guys have seized the day and proven that they are worthy of playing in the Show.

Seized the Day: Willie Harris
When Elijah Dukes was released, it is hard to imagine that Willie was atop of the pecking order for at bats representing the right field position. The Nats clearly wanted one of the younger options to win the job. All Willie has done is gotten on base, scored runs, and done as much as possible to keep the Nats in games. His defense in one of the corner slots should be well above average, so for a team the received negative value at the 9 last season, this is extremely good news.

Choked on the Bit: Justin Maxwell
Several years ago, the A's brought young 5-tool prospect they thought could be their franchise center fielder for years to come. Ryan Christienson shredded his way from low A to AAA in a year, enough so that the A's relegated projected starter, 26-year old Jason McDonald, to mop up duty. He stuggled with strikeouts as a rookie, getting on base the next year, and despite being handed the starting job three times on a loaded team, never could hold it down for more than a couple weeks at a time. Eventually the A's were forced to trade for Johnny Damon. Justin Maxwell was given a shot last May to do something Dukes on the DL with a hamstring and responded with an 0-16 binge with 10 strikeouts... even Austin Kearns cringed. Excusable given the circumstances, he earned more playing time in September, responding with a .292/.370/.554, albeit with 21 strikeouts and a slightly inflated but not insane BABIP of .375. This spring was supposed to be Maxwell's oyster. His defense, speed, and youth are fact. He was given the opportunity- the only player getting to the dish more is Ian Desmond (talk about contrast)- and shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that he needs another season in AAA, learning how to bat. Sure, he can hit, yes, when the ball hits his bat. However, in the NL East, there are plenty of guys who are pretty good at missing bats. Roger Bernadina should be the extra outfielder when the team breaks camp. If the Nats believe Dukes was expendable because Maxwell is his eventual replacement, they cannot force the issue as outlined in the Oakland example above.

The Right Field Situation

In 2008, Willie Harris seized the opportunity presented when half the Nationals roster went on the DL or was named "Austin Kearns" (who may be stumbling into a roster spot in Cleveland). He will never be a long term solution, or a guy that will bat .300, but his ability to play defense and capitalize on mistakes (via the walk, occasional long ball, or heady base running) make him a fairly valuable player against right-handed pitching. He posted a WAR of 3.3 in 2008, and will likely be in the range of 3 wins again with 400 plate appearances. Elijah Dukes, on the other hand, after showing that 3-4 win potential in 2008, did nothing with the additional playing time, somehow cratering out negative value.

Many fans and personnel felt sorry that Willie Harris took the shaft last season, complimenting him on his professionalism despite his offensive numbers suffering in the limited playing time. Moving forward, everybody knows Willie is hardly a long term solution at the position, but given the right opportunities, such as platooning against righties and batting behind a running threat like Nyjer Morgan, he should thrive in 2010. And given Dukes' negative clubhouse impact, who is to say a simple move like this isn't worth more than 3 wins?

Next season, maybe Willie Harris gets squeezed out by a free agent, but this year, even with a bat like Jermaine Dye lurking out there, the Nats should trust their locker room. Dye is likely worth negative value (trust me, I had him on my fantasy team and his second half was pretty special) both on the field and in the clubhouse. Yes, maybe if Dukes or Dye had played to their ABSOLUTE BEST, the Nats are a 76 win team as opposed to a 72, but more than likely the team wins 68 instead.

Put Up Your Dukes

Or put them down.

Or just cut them off.

Once again, Dukes was a Jim Bowden experiment that never really exploded in everyone's face. He just sat there simmering like a dormant volcano. His numbers had regressed, as had his patience. There was a slight injury history. If Rizzo felt there was any chance Dukes was not cemented in as the right fielder, he should have tried to move him. Instead, Dukes reported late to camp, started slow, and voila, Justin Maxwell will likely be the answer to a trivia question.

Releasing Dukes is not a WRONG decision. Clearly he has shortcomings that prohibit him from becoming a great baseball player. This is not Matt Kemp that the Nats are giving up on. The Nats clearly feel that he was closer to Austin Kearns than Matt Kemp, so he wasn't worth the investment. The WRONG decision was to not invest in a corner outfielder (whether by free agency or trading for a prospect) to fill the void if this was a possibility.

Sure, Maxwell showed a pulse in September, Morse has a decent bat, and Bernadina is a blank slate. None of those guys, even at their best, is as good as average Elijah Dukes. It is possible that Dukes' value diminished when he failed as a center fielder, but there are several teams in the market for a corner outfielder that would have given up a C+/B prospect for him. And that is way better than the headline "Dukes Cut."

Petco Park...

Where offense goes to die. I won't blame the offensive swoon entirely on the Padres home tomb, but as a pull-hitting fly-ball team, the Nationals are likely to struggle here. The Cardinals pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either.

Pitching, of course, has been terrific during the losing streak. I think that is what bugs me most about the Nationals. Other than sucking, they have really lacked an identity. They do not suck consistently either. Some weeks, they knock the cover off the ball and pound opponents into scoring 8 runs to win. Other weeks, the offense hibernates while guys like Martin, Mock, and Livan Hernandez pitch like All-Stars.

Clearly, the Nyjer Morgan injury is killing the offense, where leadoff hitters are posting a .105/.227/.227 over the last five games. Willie Harris is out of sync, and Justin Maxwell should be hitting 9th, not 1st.

And for the record, Elijah Dukes stolen base success is currently at 16%. Next worst in baseball, minimum 10 attempts, is KC's David DeJesus at 36%. There is a reason these teams are vying for the #1 pick again: inability to recognize shortcomings. Seriously, stop giving Dukes the green light. He is terrible at stealing bases. For comparison, he has been caught as many times as Michael Bourn... only Bourn has stolen 47 more bases!

But hey, at least the Nats snapped that skid for 1-game losing streaks in Chicago.

Dukes to AAA

Mildly surprising, but all the pieces were there. Dukes had been slumping since coming off the DL with the hamstring. Willingham has been straight thumping the ball, and the defensive options of Morgan and Harris leave fewer at bats for Dukes to straighten himself out.

The more disconcerting issue with Dukes' slump is his inability to take pitches. He is seeing fewer fastballs and swinging at more pitches out of the zone. His walk rates are basically cut in half. He may be trying too hard to make something happen with the bat.

The question to management is how do they perceive Dukes? Kearns can't be demoted, so maybe they are hoping somebody takes him off there hands to make room for Dukes next month. Or are they hoping to protect Dukes reputation to use him as trade bait? Either way, the lower pressure of AAA should help his bat out, and getting out of CF should help out his head.

In any event, not a favorable development for a guy who seemed untouchable in May.

Wine Tasting Over the Weekend...

But did catch some baseball.

The Craig Stammen report. You gotta love that the coaches have the young guys going out and attacking batters. Detweiler did it, and then Stammen did it. The bad news is that at no point did he look dominating. He was on cruise control the first two time through the lineup, but once he dropped that walk to McLouth, the cloak of invincibility was off and the Pirates were locked in. Having these young guys going after hitters is the best thing the organization can do as it will separate the major league guys from the AAA and AAAA guys. In the long run, Stammen may turn out to be one of those AAAA guys who can dominate the International League, but may not have pure stuff to get guys out in the strike zone. However, it was fun watching the Pirates earn their lead, and better to watch the Nats battle back with some small-ball and close one out. The rest of the weekend wasn't quite as good. The team refuses to let Martis lose, so they do have that going for them... which is nice.

So far, the Elijah Dukes injury has illuminated a few things. First, he has arrived as a solid middle-of-the-order threat and the Nationals offensive slump corresponds to when he went on the DL. Second, he flat out should not be allowed near centerfield except under the most dire circumstances, as there are no quick fixes for the defensive woes the team faces. Having him out there certainly improves the offense, although Willie Harris has been better than expected again this year. Dukes makes some dunder-headed plays in the field and on the base paths, but generally brings more things to the table than he takes off. The same cannot really be said for Kearns anymore. 5 for 44? That is not a slump... that is a catastrophe.

The offense will start clicking again once Dukes and Flores come off the DL, but due to the continued defensive liabilities presented by the configured roster.

Quick note: is it just me, or does Kearns stand too far from the plate? He doesn't identify pitches on the outer half of the plate at all.

Some notes from Saturday

First, we don't talk about it here. Ever. Until it is over.

Second, the Kip Wells experiment nearly blew up tonight. Fortunately Joel Hanrahan was able to find three pitches relatively close to the strike zone to retire Chad Tracy's corpse. Bullpen-by-committee is good decision. Win as a team and lose as a team. There isn't one guy qualified to slam the door in the ninth, but they have several different styles, and each can be used to get an out at the right time. Given the lack of innings by their starters, what the Nats need to do is find that Brad Ziegler-type middle reliever to bridge the 6th to the 8th.

And congratulations to Elijah Dukes, who today was nominated for the Major League Baseball Hall of Shame by getting picked off first base three times in a single week. Way to go kid! Somebody email the Elias Sports Bureau and see if this is a record.

And I apologize for suggesting that Adam Dunn would be able to immediately improve his value to the team by moving to first base. It looks like that will be a work in progress.

Wait… Your Poll Says “Trade Nick Johnson”?

I have already pointed out that outfield defense should be a point of emphasis on the Nationals. They are currently 7-17, though their run differential suggests that they are slightly better than this. There are a variety of reasons they have failed to close out games, but one can only heap so much hate on the pitching staff. Frankly, the defense hasn’t done much to help out the guy on the hill.

The Nats do not have a natural CF on the roster, and only Willie Harris has had any success while out there. Harris rarely starts and is mainly used as a utility defensive replacement. He is regarded as an above average fielder and below average hitter, but given the chance to play significantly last year he squeezed out a second consecutive season during which his OPS justified consideration at a premium defensive position (OPS+ 98).

Instead, Lastings Milledge was sent out there for several games despite being the worst everyday centerfielder in 2008… not just barely, either. We are talking a Reagan-Mondale margin. If he were hitting, maybe there would be an excuse to send him out there, but considering he couldn’t out-hit Willie Harris, somebody should have reassessed the outfield configuration.

Given two solid corner outfielders in Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns (yeah, he was down in ’08, but he was going to play this year to justify his salary), Jim Bowden addressed the need in centerfield by bringing in two more corner outfielders, neither of whom bring anything to the table defensively. Statue Adam Dunn was stolen via free agency at below-market value and is able to compensate for his diminishing defensive value by representing a power bat the Nats sorely need. Aspiring statue Josh Willingham was acquired via trade and has all the tools to be Adam Dunn-lite, just at 1/20th the cost. Jim Bowden’s plan to build the perfect fantasy baseball outfield would have worked, had it not been for those pesky investigators.

It has taken the Nats management a month to collect the pieces, demote Milledge, and move Dukes over to CF, where he is overmatched. It may look fine right now, but the additional stress of CF is bound to catch up to him and sap his bat, especially once it gets hot in DC. The ideal scenario would be to get out from under Kearns’ contract, start Harris in center, and rotate Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham on the corners. That would have Dunn DH-ing during Interleague play and playing 1B mainly, leaving Johnson to pick up a few innings or starts here and there. However, barring Austin Kearns pulling a 2008 Xavier Nady, the trade market is non-existent. The Lerners won’t buy him out to clear the roster spot, so he is staying, which is fine. He is a high-IQ player who is currently hitting like the player he was in Cinci, and fields his position better than average.

If Kearns stays, that all but guarantees Dunn getting more work at 1B. Johnson is a good guy, and a good hitter, but no longer a premium power hitter. He also has a tendency to find the DL after an intense bowel movement. The smart play, given that the Nats may threaten to climb out of the cellar but will not challenge for the division given their dearth of pitching, would be to hold on to Johnson through Interleague play, then put him out on the market before the All-Star break. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and while a compensatory draft pick would be nice, an arm with a proven minor or major league track record would be substantially better. Right now his stock is as high as it will ever be during the rest of his career, as he is healthy with an OBP at .425.

There are potential suitors as well:
1. Boston: They really need some Big Papi insurance, especially Youk hurting too. Jeff Bailey and Jonathan VanEvery are career minor leaguers who will regress to below-average. Johnson fits Epstein’s profile, as well.
2. Chicago Cubs: Derrek Lee has been awful and clearly not right... if he can’t get right, they will need another bat.
3. Milwaukee: They have been crafty, and really want to get some value for Fielder. If they are on the cusp of contention, they may shake things up. They want to move Braun to 1B eventually, anyways, so renting Johnson for 2-3 months while subtracting Fielder for several prospects and picks might make the most fiscal sense.
4. Detroit: Unlikely to add payroll, but Johnson’s salary is manageable, and they have some arms available if Carlos Guillen pulls the Miggy T and reveals he is also 2 years older than his listed age, which he is currently looking like.

A few others may pop up as well. Management brought in several big bats to address what they apparently thought were the issues with the worst team in major league baseball. They remain the worst team in baseball, and should probably take a new approach.