2017 Predictions: The Mid-Majors

So maybe I don't follow the NCAA criteria for conference classifications... sue me.  I remember a time when the WAC was so big and powerful, they had a WAC-off to see which of the 16 teams could garner the at-large bid.  Unsure why the WAC became the AIDS of college conferences, but nobody wants to go near it... poor New Mexico State has been trying to escape for ages.  Typically they would be a lock to win, but Grand Canyon has been playing some good ball and should lock up the regular season title despite not being eligible for the NCAA tournament.

Monmouth should cruise this year, and there are a few other fringe Top 25 teams lurking in this group.  The Ivy League should be a dogfight at the top, and those 2 Harvard/Princeton games are must see TV, but nobody can sleep on Yale.  Same with Chattanooga and East Tennessee State atop the Southern, but Mercer is lurking as a dark horse.  Valpo will see a drop off that will allow Green Bay to get back to the Dance with its methodical approach.  UNCW is geared to repeat, but the seismic shifts in the CAA have left a power void that could be grabbed by anyone, but my guess would be Charleston or Elon.  Belmont continues to rule the OVC, but probably doesn't have the threats to sneak up to the 12/13 line, nor do they have the talent or depth to win from the 15 line.  My "so dark it may be invisible" horse would be Northern Arizona to find their legs and start laying the wood in Flagstaff again.

Anyways, here are the projected standings.

2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.

How to Interpret November Results

The lock of last night was Baylor giving a point to a depleted Oregon squad.  Oregon, ranked in the Top 10, against Baylor, a promising, but frustrating team, in Waco.

Baylor rolled them like a sorority girl 66-49.  Hot takes abound!  Oregon is going to regress this season, struggle to make the tourney... Baylor has turned the corner and has erased the last two embarrassing season ending losses... Altman's tempo only works when shots are falling and the crowd is behind them.

There is so much too process, each for the players, coaches, analysts.  Coaches will not have a good feel for their line up or rotation for the first few games (unless they are returning everybody) and may not be able to reach potential.  Players coming off injury, suspension, transfer have little time in seat and are still getting their feet wet since official practices only started 3+ weeks ago.  And us... hell most of these guys are stat lines and bios until we see them on the floor.

Does my opinion change of Oregon after this loss?  No.

Does my opinion change of Duke after their loss?  No.

Michigan St after 2 losses?  No.

That is why I try not poll or rank every week, instead focusing on every month.  Sure, updated polls sell newspapers, but they really don't tell us anything other than who won or lost their last two games, which is a terrible sample size.  Let's look back on the 5th of December and see who the movers and shakers are.

Best win so far, and surprise, not an upset pick, was Villanova shaking off the hangover and winning a close one at Purdue.  They may not repeat, but will be a fun team to watch defend the title.  They keep the belt until a worthy opponent knocks them off the medal stand (which with the early Duke loss, could be in 2017).

Monmouth claims a great loss, dropping an OT game at South Carolina.  The SEC is Kentucky, South Carolina, and the bottom of the cage at the zoo.  Monmouth couldn't grab an at-large bid last season because of their conference affiliation, but went and stacked a non-conference slate that will set them up on the bubble again if they can get to 25 wins: USC, Syracuse, Memphis, Princeton, and UNC. Even 2-3 through that gauntlet and holding serve in the little MAAC should get them there... my guess is 3-2.

Hope to have some conference rankings out this week.

One and Done Versus the Alternative

Back in 1995, Kevin Garnett made a calculated decision to bypass his NCAA and head straight into the NBA.  Much to the dismay of some sports purists, he was drafted 5th overall and the TimberWolves were vindicated with an instant impact player.  The message to other promising prospects was clear as day- declare early and often, maximize your earning potential both on and off the court.  Prep to Pro success stories are there just as much as NCAA to Pro and FIBA to NBA, but teams and the media instead focused on the tragedies.  Too many busts... kids not being ready for life on their own... agents preying on talent and cutting them off once they got their cut.

It peaked in 2004 with 8 of the first 19 picks skipping college, and NBA teams beginning to show more restraint, using more second round picks on preps than the previous 10 years combined.  Much to the detriment of everyone involved, David Stern intervened and pushed the minimum age for the NBA draft back to 19, making it very difficult to forego the NCAA.

The impact is still currently hitting both franchises.  While the intent was to "protect kids from themselves" it really instead just shifted the role of the predator from agent to coach.  The NCAA basketball product was supposed to benefit from the availability of this youth, but most players only give a glimmer of potential while adjusting to the new game before realizing that NCAA eligibility is a pain in the ass and, well, declare early and often.

I admired Brandon Jennings taking off for Europe to not perpetuate the charade.  The experience may not have been embraced at the time, but he clearly came into the NBA a more polished player having not been the NCAA mealticket of a program for a year beating up on never-pro caliber talent in the PAC-10... err 12, whatever.

So while his idea may have been right, the execution of it in a foreign-speaking nation with financially-strapped teams in a win-now atmosphere may have put a depressing outlook on playing basketball.  A story coming out of Australia offers a different spin on the Prep to Pro transition, one of opportunity and reward. With so much scrutiny being paid toward NCAA finances and compensation, one thing has been sorely overlooked: the point of enrolling in college is not to play basketball and not to stay eligible.  It is to become educated and be able to positively contribute to the community/society, regardless of whether they intend to pursue basketball as a vocation.  If a recruit is really concerned about this, or really has no desire to further their education, they should not be forced into that situation.

Coaches should identify these players as "unrecruitable".  For instance, the Armed Forces actively recruits teenagers to enlist right out of high school.  Many kids want and need that opportunity.  Many, however, do not, as they may already have college, vocation, and life opportunities ahead of them.  Army recruiters can pitch patriotism, service, training, but bottom line, cannot improve your situation unless you WANT to be there.  And that is the problem.  So many of these kids get to school and go through the motions for 6 months, doing just enough to get an invite to the pre-draft camp, that none of the parties benefit from the deal.  Players don't gain the experience promised to improve much more than having gone straight from high school.  Coaches and schools have to deal with compliance, eligibility, and attendance for guys that don't really want to be there, and the NBA misses out on possible impact talent.  The NCAA gets to sell more ad space based on their likeness, so good deal for them, though.

One and done is the worst.  Schools paying players is not the answer, because that only wrecks the playing field further.  Open up the draft, open up the foreign market, and let the market dictate where the right talent goes.

Preseason Poll- 2016/17

1. Villanova (Always ride with the defending champ till they prove otherwise)
2. Duke
3. Wisconsin
4. Kentucky
5. Virginia
6. Louisville
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Indiana
10. Wichita State
11. Miami, FL
12. Purdue
13. Arizona
14. Gonzaga
15. Xavier
16. Kansas
17. UCLA
18. Michigan State
19. Creighton
20. Dayton
21. West Virginia
22. Cincinnati
23. Saint Mary’s, CA
24. Iowa State
25. Monmouth

Not much more to add for now.  Preseason polls are for the wolves anyways.

Change in Format

To go back to the start of this blog, I had to qualify my writing.  I was not a Nationals fan, but instead an A's fan trapped in DC who enjoys car accidents... an that is exactly what the Jim Bowden Nats were.  They were mildly entertaining, and I had just the menial job to allow me the time to create content and generate interesting research and analysis.

Then two things happened.  First, I was assigned to a much more challenging client and travelled extensively, and second, the Nats stopped sucking and there was much more attention paid to their trevails.

I few years have passed since I had taken the time to post, when I came across an opportunity to do analysis on college basketball.  I do not get the opportunity to watch games like I used to (12-20 games/ week) but have been looking for an excuse to start following again.  The caveat is that my school (BC) could be historically bad this year (like seriously, how do you dig deeper after 0-18?).

Plus, I have an opportunity to get to Vegas for March Madness.  Pardon the mess.

I hope to have a poll out tomorrow... BC will not be on it.

Our Hero

I don't care if this is true or not, but I'm glad he is staying topical.  I'll be looking to match up with him next month.

Closed

Soriano's best inning as a Nat... Great work from Storen an Clippard...

Holy Errors

The Nats should easily have 5 through the first four innings of this game!  It looks like lack of concentration.  If Zimmerman wasn't down, you could easily see giving Desmond a series off to clear his head.  He's become a mess out there.

Testing the Transfer Rule

So Saturday night, Nate McLouth became the first Nats victim of the transfer rule. I could not find video of the play, but to cue the scene, Braves have runners on first and second with one out when Andrelton Simmons hits a loopy fly ball to right. McLouth senses the runner on second may tag so he positions himself to throw and catches the ball. As he swings his glove back to his cocked throwing hand, the ball slips out and falls to the ground. The runners move up and everyone is ruled safe. The Nats, having already used their challenge, had no recourse, and with Angel Hernandez involved, no real hope.

As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote, Nate is not the first foiled by the new rule intended to improve the judgment mechanics on double play attempts. He certainly will not be the last, nor will the Nats be the team most grotesquely screwed over by the rule change. Watching the McLouth play a half dozen times, it is understandable how MLB could feel the transfer rule applies fairly to both infield and outfield scenarios. However, let me repaint the picture:

Braves have runners on first and second with one out when Andrelton Simmons hits a loopy fly ball to left. Harper charges and secures the ball in his glove. He takes a step or two towards the infield and sees an opportunity to end the inning. As he begins the motion to transfer the ball to his throwing hands- "OOPS! I dropped it!" Harper quickly regathers and fires a seed into Rendon at third to nail the lead runner. Evan Gattis, struggling from a rough hangover from the evening before, can't figure out why Doug Descenzo is flailing his arms on third base, Rendon flips the ball to second and the rally is wiped out.

The samples collected by Fangraphs show the a slew of the bizarre effects the rule can have, and the umpires are not too keen on change and replay, so we certainly have not seen the end of this.