Preseason Bracket- November 22, 2016

Fort Wayne, amongst the teams doing my preseason predictions proud.  Great win for a program that needed to prove they could do it before making their NCAA debut.

Not really going to let these early season result skew my preseason thoughts... Will include some analysis tomorrow.

The most difficult part, besides fitting the s-curve without disrupting conference parameters, regional opportunities, as seeding appealing matchups.  My 8/9 lines look like a Who's Who of December 27th bowl game participants.  It will be fun to see how this evolves.

Apologies to:

The first 5 out:
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Colorado

North Carolina State

Oklahoma State

Northwestern

Pittsburgh

The next 5 out

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Virginia Commonwealth

Syracuse

Texas Tech

Saint Bonaventure

Ohio State

Rough year for the MWC and MVC.  I knew that the MVC lacked depth behind Wichita State, but Northern Iowa again will have to play their way into the main field, barring a spectacular conference season (like 16-2) or a big surge from the bottom of the conference to drive up their strength of schedule.

Giving the regular season title and first round bye to Nevada, San Diego State will play their way in as well.  Steve Fisher finds a way to win games, but this looks to be a slightly down year.  The conference second tier schools just aren't bringing enough clout to even get to the final 24, which makes it difficult to objectively compare the Aztecs outside head to head.

I gave Michigan the nod over Ohio State and Northwestern.  They will finish .500 in league play, but will get the nod in all the metrics (Pomeroy, Sagarin, RPI).  I had to do some deep digging, and really feel any of the top 3 teams on the first 5 out list have earned it more, but I'll ignore week 1 results and give Georgetown the nod for the other slot.

I also just have no desire to put Syracuse in until they prove they aren't going to mail in the first four months again, but they could end up clowning me again.

Seeding the bracket tonight.

63 Teams for 47 spots

The MAC and Conference USA are 1 bid leagues, lucky to make the 13 line, unless somebody runs the table and loses in the conference finals.  Not very likely because these are pretty balanced leagues.

88 Teams for 49 spots

Now that 19 sure one-bid leagues have been identified, I am sorting through the numbers and rosters to get bead on where these teams will be in 4 months.

Big Dogs I don't see making it as far as public opinion or the numbers:
Clemson, Syracuse, Florida, Baylor, California, Texas A&M.

The goal is to narrow those 88 teams to about 60.  Per usual, it is a tight squeeze on the mid majors if the ACC and Big Ten claim 20 spots.  The Big 12 is unnaturally balanced this year.  Kansas isn't running away with this and could find themselves staring at 5-6 league losses.  There isn't a single team that is not a true bubble contender, and if parity does reign, we could be looking at a glut of 8-10 conference records with legit profiles.  I really think that Baylor is going to struggle on the road this year as you can only take those "No means no!" chants so long.

Initial Bracketing Insights: One Bid Leagues

The first thing that has really become apparent is that UNC Wilmington is trending the right way.  If we were to stage conference tourneys now, and they did not win, they would be on the bubble... probably in that first 8 out group.  Good for the overall health of the CAA after its mass exodus.

Bryant and Howard are significantly worse than the other one-bid champions I have identified.  November and December results do not make a season in these leagues.  That belongs to February and March.  Out of all my predictions, Bryant did have the furthest to go, as Wagner and Fairleigh Dickinson are more established.  Surprised by Howard's numbers, though.

2017 Predictions: The BCS teams

Despite my bias toward the Big East, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and powers in the Missouri Valley and West Coast, I feel that it would be ignorant to state that these conferences are in the same class as the 5 BCS Conferences.  The Big East clearly has the talent to compete with any of these affiliations, and top to bottom, the A-10, MWC, and AAC have the horses to run with the PAC-12 and SEC this year.  It really comes down to resources, exposure, and the “self-licking ice cream cone.”

The resource gradient does not drive basketball as much as football, but at the end of the day, even your middling BCS program (say, Washington?) is spending so much more per student athlete.  It makes everything easier, from recruiting, training, and actually going to and playing the games.  Richmond and Saint Bonaventure just are not going to have those selling points.

Exposure has changed dramatically the last 15 years.  Back in the days of yore, dish was the only way to get out of region games, let alone mid-major and small conference games.  Now I can choose from any of about 6 to 20 games on any evening or weekend through FiOS (no, I am not trying to sell their service… it sucks, but is still better than cable).  This at least gives casual fans the opportunity to observe that Old Dominion may be legit.  However, when CBS advertises its game of the week, they never try to dig outside the BCS sandbox.  The Big East makes it difficult to ignore, but you are more likely going to be pimped Tennessee/Georgia or Oklahoma State/Oklahoma.

These first two discriminators do not necessarily give a school an advantage reaching the tournament through conference affiliation.  But the self-licking ice cream will do exactly that, giving mediocre teams more credit for getting their asses handed to them through mandatory conference games than rewarding excellence winning the games you should win.  I think the SEC is a prime example.  Outside Kentucky, there isn’t a true dominating national contender.  It is really them, 9 bubble teams, and 4 doormats.  Pretty much all 9 of those teams are going to log 17-22 wins of varying caliber.  The advantage is that they not only get the strength of schedule bump from playing Kentucky, but also all of their other conference opponents who have played Kentucky, even the doormats. 

So once upon a time, the commissioners in several of the “mid-major” conferences realized that they were never going to get the cherry home-and-home opportunities against the big schools, so they gamed the RPI formula.  First off, avoid games against the lower third of teams except for the ones you have to play in conference.  BCS conference teams were more than happy to buy those games anyways to drive toward 20 wins.  Second, find neutral site games and “preseason” tournaments to add additional games to the schedule that have the road/neutral bonus.  Finally, the “Bracket Buster” series was established to give these teams additional Top 50/Top 100 games to both their contenders, as well as the mid and lower conference teams.  The result has been frustration and consternation, and arguably the end of the RPI used as the basis for selection and seeding. 

Virginia Tech under Seth Greenberg was the example of how the system was being worked and how NOT to schedule.  It seemed every season, they would take advantage of their natural home court advantage and spoil a Duke, Maryland, or UNC, chalk up a few other Top 50 wins on their way to 23-9, lose early in the ACC tourney, then find themselves in the NIT because their schedule was fat on Campbell, Longwood, and VMI.  Now it is possible for a team to get screwed because after putting together a fair schedule, those opponents all just had a bad year, but Tech played some good teams… it’s just that the bad teams were always really bad.  Now the book out is that if you anticipate being in the bubble discussion, avoid those games and on the weak BCS teams, weak mid majors, or the best small conference schools.  This has made scheduling harder for the non-BCS conferences because they cannot offer their opponent the same resources or exposure.  Hence, the rich get richer through association, and the middle class fights the fight.

On to the predictions!

The ACC is a true dog fight.  5 elite teams, 7 legitimate bubble teams, 2 doormats, and 1 Clemson.  UVA and Miami have huge upside and downside, but I can’t see either falling below .500, even in this loaded conference.  Notre Dame and Florida State will likely get high seeds based on strength of schedule, and this conference will probably never get 12 teams in, but 10 is not out of the question.

The Big Ten is also loaded the same way with 3 legit final four players, the enigma that is Michigan State every year, 4 other teams that will have to play their way out at this point, four other bubble teams, and then the 2 doormats.  When I finished my predictions, I was surprised how low I had Michigan.  They seem safe, yet bottom half of the conference.  While there is much to like about the progress being made at Northwestern and Nebraska, it just seems that there is a chasm of talent between them and the next tier.  The other teams are all rebuilding, not reloading.

One through five in the PAC 12 are fairly interchangeable based on schedule, injuries, suspensions.  Utah has great upside, and USC is sneaky good this year and a fun Sweet 16 dark horse.  I’m betting on Cal and Washington stumbling this year before making moves next year, though Lorenzo Romar may not make it around if the Huskies are tanking winnable games.  People have shown that is possible to win in Pullman, but not this year… not sure that is the case in Tempe or Corvallis, as those teams never seem to play up to potential.

Texas returning to respectability ups the profile of this conference.  I don’t see a true front-runner, even if Kansas has the talent to do so.  Bob Huggins will beat and bruise and win 75% of his games.  The question is: “where is the fall off?”  There are strong teams here, but Oklahoma was a Buddy Hield force, but will show growing pains.  Brad Underwood has Oklahoma State trending the right way, but inherited a mess.  Baylor has talent, but man, that athletic program is a ticking time bomb.  Can Jamie Dixon turn TCU around, or was that Pitt program really Ben Howland and a house of cards that nobody knocked down?  This smells of a 4 bid league, but will probably get 6.

My thoughts on the SEC were pretty clear.  It is Kentucky and a bunch of 8-9 seed fodder.  I like South Carolina, but Frank Martin started with nothing there and is coaching up a bunch of 2 and 3 stars.  There are lots of good coaches down here, but the football drain on these programs seems to keep many dormant until after bowl games.  Texas A&M was a good story last year, but they are fringy at best.  Florida is not taking a step forward.  I am still not sure why Arkansas is getting so much love, but Mike Anderson at least plays exciting basketball.  The real wild card and potential west division anchor going forward could be Auburn and Bruce Pearl.  His ethics will always be questioned, but he does what Mike Anderson does, and he has typically had more success and consistency.

Now that this is complete, I should have a bracket out Wednesday.

2017 Predictions: The Majors

Yes!  The “Major” conferences.  These are the bread and butter to forecasting a good bracket.  The powers that be make it impossible to properly rate the BCS conference teams, watching middling teams get way over-seeded or included, while strong teams from this group regularly get the shaft.  It frustrates me to no end when I am championing two potential Cinderella teams and they get pitted against each in the 7-10 game, all the while boasting the profile of a 4-5 seed.  Meanwhile, some pluck BCS bubble team sneaks into their conference semifinals and is suddenly anointed champion of the hour.

Most of you will probably get a chuckle out of the likes of Texas San Antonio playing in a major conference, or being put in the same breath as defending champion Villanova.  However, even the MAC and Conference USA have the talent to be multi-bid leagues with a couple breaks.

The Big East should continue to roll deeper than most of the BCS conferences.  Nova is still deep, Xavier keeps getting better, and Seton Hall has recovered from 2 decades of apathy in a basketball-first environment.  If Greg McDermott has turned the corner in Omaha, this conference really has 4 teams looking at top 4 seeds.  Early results show that Marquette, Butler and Providence should compete well despite personnel losses.  DePaul and Saint John’s will continue to suck… more on those teams in another post.

That also brings me to a point.  Very few of my preseason previews will mention specific players.  And isn’t that I don’t or don’t care.  25 years of college basketball obsession have proven a few things.  The first is that players win games.  Supremely talented shooters, ball-handlers, and big men make plays that affect the outcomes of games.  However, good coaching wins championships.  Somebody who is thinking 5 steps ahead to make sure he is getting the most of each position on floor night after night is the biggest difference between the NIT and NCAA tourney for many of these teams.  When it comes down to projecting standings, players come, go, get hurt, get suspended.  A good coach deals with it all and adjusts.  On the list of NCAA tournament winning coaches, there are very few “interlopers”.  Kevin Ollie has yet to prove himself (and say what you want about these guys’ ethics… discussion for another time), but Jim Harrick is the only one who stands out in the last 30 years as being “wtf, how did he win?”  Buying into a coach’s system, process and character goes further than guess which of these 3, 4, and 5 star recruits will pan out.

The Atlantic 10 is the sleeping giant.  Because of the lack of football exposure, every year people ask me, “where is Saint Bonaventure?”  Dayton is back and Archie Miller should get them much deeper into the tournament.  Davidson has made the adjustment from the Southern Conference and continue to find talent other major programs pass on. I keep waiting for Richmond to turn the corner, but something seems missing from his Princeton-style attack.  VCU will probably take a step back from elite to just really good.  Shaka Smart’s coattails are only so long, and eventually will run out.  The real wild cards are the other Rams (URI) and the Bonnies.  Both look ready to make some noise this year.  So many schools in this conference in great recruiting areas so it is hard to imagine them not fielding good teams.

In the AAC, Southern Methodist has broken my heart enough the last couple years.  Larry Brown’s name was enough to get people interested in the program after a history of ineptitude.  They should be a Sweet 16 team this year.  Cincinnati is not going away, but Memphis may… not sure I buy this Tubby Smith experiment.  This may only be a 2 bid league unless somebody emerges from the Houston/Tulsa/UConn/Temple bubble.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have reloaded… Saint Mary’s was violently screwed on selection Sunday and have a chip on their shoulder.  BYU always looks great on the court, then you blink and they have 9 losses.  Pepperdine may have the horse to sneak past them in the standings, but not enough to threaten the Top Dogs.  Santa Clara will slow it down this year and be a dark horse by the end of the season.

UNLV is a hot mess right now and I can’t that getting fixed before February.  Nevada has the depth to push ahead of San Diego State, and both are solid at-large teams.  Picking 3 through 7 here is a crapshoot, but New Mexico boasts the best home court advantage that will play out in the regular season.  There is a lot of talent in this conference, and is a year away from maybe getting 4-5 teams in.

Conference USA is full of teams that seem to covet the glory of major conference football, but have so little pedigree nobody is buying in yet.  MTSU is the best of the bunch, but the Monarchs and Blazers bring some tourney experience to the table.  Marshall and Charlotte will push the pace all season long, but neither are equipped to win regularly on the road (shoot, play D).

The MVC misses Creighton.  Northern Iowa is trying to play foil to the Shockers’ dominance, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare.  Barry Hinson looks to have SIU on the right track, and Illinois State is a solid 20 win team, but the lack of depth will keep this conference low in the RPI discussion, and anyone not named Gregg Marshall should expect to be forced to win Arch Madness to secure a bid in the Dance.

Buffalo (the house Reggie Witherspoon built) has been solid for the last 5+ years, but the test will be whether it can be sustained. Ohio and Toledo are fortunately n opposite sides of the conference as to not cannibalize each other.  Keno Davis will bring some excitement to Central Michigan.  The conference will need a few signature wins early to get into the 2 bid discussion.

2017 Predictions: The Mid-Majors

So maybe I don't follow the NCAA criteria for conference classifications... sue me.  I remember a time when the WAC was so big and powerful, they had a WAC-off to see which of the 16 teams could garner the at-large bid.  Unsure why the WAC became the AIDS of college conferences, but nobody wants to go near it... poor New Mexico State has been trying to escape for ages.  Typically they would be a lock to win, but Grand Canyon has been playing some good ball and should lock up the regular season title despite not being eligible for the NCAA tournament.

Monmouth should cruise this year, and there are a few other fringe Top 25 teams lurking in this group.  The Ivy League should be a dogfight at the top, and those 2 Harvard/Princeton games are must see TV, but nobody can sleep on Yale.  Same with Chattanooga and East Tennessee State atop the Southern, but Mercer is lurking as a dark horse.  Valpo will see a drop off that will allow Green Bay to get back to the Dance with its methodical approach.  UNCW is geared to repeat, but the seismic shifts in the CAA have left a power void that could be grabbed by anyone, but my guess would be Charleston or Elon.  Belmont continues to rule the OVC, but probably doesn't have the threats to sneak up to the 12/13 line, nor do they have the talent or depth to win from the 15 line.  My "so dark it may be invisible" horse would be Northern Arizona to find their legs and start laying the wood in Flagstaff again.

Anyways, here are the projected standings.

2017 Predictions: Small Conferences

The way I am building my bracket is maintain a tracker of each conference, top to bottom.  "Wow, that sounds like a lot of work."  Well so is playing basketball!

I strongly feel that much of my "expert" analysis come from understanding what is happening on the court, sometimes moreso than the players, coaches, and broadcast teams... actually, especially the broadcast teams.  With these teams, it is that much more difficult because despite dozens more coverage options, they are rarely on TV.  It's not like I can just roll on over to Bender Arena and catch a game any time, as my wife and kids would change the locks.

I have captured the screen shot so I can look back and compare results, as well as track standings, hot teams, and use this to populate the bracket.



These are clearly all one bid leagues that will typically have a great deal of entropy transitioning from non-conference to conference schedules, so it will be interesting to see who lives up to their billing.

What I am pretty sure of:
Long Beach State looks to be the class of the Big West, with recent losses at Irvine and Hawaii.  I can't imagine them losing more than 3 conference games.

Bryant will rebound in a big way.  The Northeast isn't very strong, which allowed a suspect Fairleigh Dickinson team to sneak through last year.

Stephen F. Austin will lose games in conference this year.  That hasn't always been a given, dropping a 53-1 spot the last 3 years... 12-6 looks about right, but could fall further if the new staff and team don't click right away.

Howard is a pick and roll away from being a dominant force in the MEAC, but right now rely too much on their guards' ability to get to the rim.  That ability is a great equalizer, but can be easy to stop when the calls are not going your way.

Not picking on any doormats either, but there will be some rough transition seasons out there.

How to Interpret November Results

The lock of last night was Baylor giving a point to a depleted Oregon squad.  Oregon, ranked in the Top 10, against Baylor, a promising, but frustrating team, in Waco.

Baylor rolled them like a sorority girl 66-49.  Hot takes abound!  Oregon is going to regress this season, struggle to make the tourney... Baylor has turned the corner and has erased the last two embarrassing season ending losses... Altman's tempo only works when shots are falling and the crowd is behind them.

There is so much too process, each for the players, coaches, analysts.  Coaches will not have a good feel for their line up or rotation for the first few games (unless they are returning everybody) and may not be able to reach potential.  Players coming off injury, suspension, transfer have little time in seat and are still getting their feet wet since official practices only started 3+ weeks ago.  And us... hell most of these guys are stat lines and bios until we see them on the floor.

Does my opinion change of Oregon after this loss?  No.

Does my opinion change of Duke after their loss?  No.

Michigan St after 2 losses?  No.

That is why I try not poll or rank every week, instead focusing on every month.  Sure, updated polls sell newspapers, but they really don't tell us anything other than who won or lost their last two games, which is a terrible sample size.  Let's look back on the 5th of December and see who the movers and shakers are.

Best win so far, and surprise, not an upset pick, was Villanova shaking off the hangover and winning a close one at Purdue.  They may not repeat, but will be a fun team to watch defend the title.  They keep the belt until a worthy opponent knocks them off the medal stand (which with the early Duke loss, could be in 2017).

Monmouth claims a great loss, dropping an OT game at South Carolina.  The SEC is Kentucky, South Carolina, and the bottom of the cage at the zoo.  Monmouth couldn't grab an at-large bid last season because of their conference affiliation, but went and stacked a non-conference slate that will set them up on the bubble again if they can get to 25 wins: USC, Syracuse, Memphis, Princeton, and UNC. Even 2-3 through that gauntlet and holding serve in the little MAAC should get them there... my guess is 3-2.

Hope to have some conference rankings out this week.