28 DEC Bracket

The #1 seeds have stayed pretty consistent.  I've seen a lot of love for Arizona State as #1.  The numbers just aren't there, and the bottom-heavy PAC-12 is going to take the shine of their NC wins.  If they win the conference convincingly, they may get there, but right now, I see them jostling the 2-4 lines.  Purdue is likely a little over-seeded.  Their conference slate starts light and sees MSU only once.  I feel like a three team shuffle between ASU, Texas A&M, and Purdue would make me feel better.

I don't like 3 Big 12 Teams on the 3 line, and expect Kansas to move up as well, but they need a run to find themselves ahead of the Sun Devils.

Notre Dame has cratered their way into the toughest road possible.  I still think that they pull things together for a top 3 conference finish, as the schedule is favorable the next few weeks, and for the most part, you can chalk those two bad in-state losses to poor luck come March, but in December they look brutal.

Auburn and Southern Cal have been pulled out of the dumpster and dusted off, much like Arizona and Miami last round.  The schools have really pushed their recruiters and assistants out on a limb, and the toothless NCAA only bullies the little guys.  It's been quiet enough on that front this month to think that the feds will let the basketball component plead out and testify against the deep pockets of Adidas.  The middle men like Dawkins will get hung out to dry for facilitating it.  With the amount of Louisville turnover/turmoil, I still cannot imagine that they don't have a "come to God" moment and sit this one out.  Who knows what other players they are going to find dirt on...

Treading on Thin Ice: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Maryland, Minnesota.  These teams can come off a big week and look like a top 5 seed, or crap the bed to the bottom third of the conference and stumble out quickly.  Minnesota and Notre Dame are the most perplexing.  The other three are good, but not great teams.

Last 5 In: BYU, Houston, UCLA, Butler, St. John's.  The Johnnies are likely behind the Friars now, as they were dismantled at home after I pulled the numbers.  UCLA dug themselves a nice hole and have gone Bane to get going.  It will be interesting to see how high they can climb, as their real conference games don't start until February, and they close with 3 on the road, @Utah, Colorado, and USC.  Could murder their season.  Butler has their Super Bowl Saturday hosting Villanova.  They are legit, but 4 bottom 100 wins drags on their overall numbers.  They AAC is deep enough to get Houston in this year, after they sat on the bottom of the bubble looking up last season.  BYU is the flavor of the week, though they need to drop the Gaels this weekend to hang around the bracket much longer.

First 5 Out: Syracuse, Missouri, Oregon, Providence, Alabama.  Sorry, I hate to deep digging up this horse to beat it, but Boeheim needs to learn that he cannot keep trying to force this hand.  Outside of a well-fought win here in DC against pretty suspect Georgetown team, they took on a couple neutral site games, but other than that, they paraded a bunch of 100+ ranked schools through the Carrier Dome.  It's not the worst, as 5 of those teams are likely in the Field, but the loss to the Bonnies has them out now.  They need a real road skin too.  Virginia, Duke, Florida State, or Miami... fuck, I'd take Louisville as well.  They won't and we will go for round 3 with the committee on their sham profile.  Providence has been discussed, but they need more wins.  Alabama is fun to watch, but they chase the pace... will have impressive wins sandwiched around WTF losses.  Missouri was a lock 3 weeks ago, but their December was pretty bad, losing to a struggling Illinois and escaping SFA.  Considering this had been one of the worst major conference programs in the country the past two years, being is actually quite an achievement.  Oregon will have a lot to prove in conference, but their road win at Fresno shouldn't be ignored, even with their struggles in Portland.

Next 5 Out: Ohio State, Iowa State, Boise State, Temple, Boston College.  The Buckeyes are in better shape than their other Big Ten fringe players (Northwestern, Penn State).  They are already 2-0 in conference and their losses are solid losses.  Their lack of road games is a little perplexing and it bumps them a notch.  Iowa State is going to have to fight it in a stacked Big 12, but with quality wins abound, the only way to not be in the mix is to crash out with 3 or 4 wins.  Boise is much better than this, but they are a little low on the KenPom and Sagarin numbers, which means they really have to push the envelope on Nevada.  Temple had the best computer numbers, but those have slipped.  There 3 100+ losses cancels out their shocking win(s) in Charleston.  BC is hanging that Duke win out their and will ride it as long as possible, but .500 in the ACC is what they need to make up for weak NCSOS and results.

In the mix: Northwestern, Penn State, Marquette, Kansas State, Georgia, Utah, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, San Diego State

12 DEC Bracket Analysis

To qualify the changes, the "pre-season" bracket, though published around the first of December, was primarily informed by my preseason picks with little statistical influence, and maybe one of two anecdotal results.  I also leaned heavily toward schools in the FBI's crosshairs taking the burden of proof off the NCAA and taking the postseason penalties as soon as possible.  Right now, I really only see Louisville (as a culmination of events) and Auburn (warming up the bus to back over basketball to spare football) as being "locks" to remove themselves from participation.

Everything has been reprogrammed to extract the required data regularly.  It's just a matter of following a pattern to consistently manage the data to build a product.  The metrics I am rating on are same as last year.  First, a "Basic" measure that indicates as to whether or not they play good basketball (do they score more per possession/do they allow fewer points per possession).  Next, there is a "Strength" measure that digests RPI and schedule to verify the results.  Finally, there is a "Trend" measure that addresses the when and where of results.  Typically, the analysis is done independent of record until that matters (closer to March).  Basically, a 5-4 team now (like Florida, URI) doesn't just topple out of the field, nor does an undefeated team (I hate using the Georgetown example because it is extreme, so Syracuse) with good metrics immediately drop other proven teams.  A four metric blends the three to give a broader picture.

Logic is also applied, such as MTSU has a blistering RPI, but the C-USA doldrums will dampen their seed.  Schools outside the Big 6 will need sterling resumes.  Come March, since the NCAA shares their RPI breakdown, that will be used as a tie breaker, because the exercise is to project the field, not argue who deserves it more.

One of the criteria that DOES NOT help analyze and project the field is looking at Top 25, 50, 100 wins and losses.  First, rankings change hourly, and your snapshot is as good as the last result.  A top 25 team can topple out of the Top 50 with a sprained ankle, and then that win is worthless.  The Big East was a mess of who beat who and when last year.  The Pac12 and Big12 had teams jockeying the 50 line every night, with some teams losing as many as 6 "Rated" games a night based on results, only to have a few pop up the next night when more results come in. 

The other things that do need to be considered: health, ratio of games played away, non-conference schedule balance, and avoiding unexplainable losses.

Here is a snapshot of the tool:

Numbers-minded folks probably recognize some of the value sources, but it is really how you interpret the committee's mindset AT THAT TIME as to how you balance the formulas.

That said, the bracket:
After Duke LOLed in Chestnut Hill (don't be fooled there), it created firm separation between Villanova, MSU, and the other 349 teams. The curve smooths after that, with Duke and Wichita State riding shotgun for the other #1 seeds.  I was pretty relaxed with the regions and had no problem dropping UVA out west.  Despite Nova's roll, I still like Xavier to pace them in the conference, and a 2 seed fits their numbers.  UNC and WVU continue their silent assaults.  A&M, Kansas, and Gonzaga are next up.  The biggest surprises falling into the chaos? Kentucky is struggling a little, Notre Dame crapped the bed, Cincinnati should be much closer to the Shockers, and Florida has entered the abyss.  Minnesota was hot, then suddenly not.  The Gaels are on life support now... getting swept by the Zags again with boot them.  The Pac12 is a dumpster fire.  Surprises emerging? Tennessee, Temple, Clemson, OHIO STATE (maybe it was all Thad's back), and of course Arizona State.

Breakdown by conference:
A10: 2
AAC: 5 (yes, 5)
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 5 (Wisc/NW implosions have left their mark)
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
MVC: 2
MWC: 1 (but oh so close Boise)
Pac12: 2 (I see 4 here again, but what a miserable non-conf run)
SEC: 7 (yeah, I had to wtf that one as well)
WCC: 2
22 one bid leagues

Teams that are closest to the bubble:
Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Temple, Minnesota, Saint Mary's
The major conference teams just need to defend their home court and not lose to the dregs on the road and their numbers will remain steady.  The Gaels and Owls will likely be on a weekly SOS rollercoaster as to whether or not they are safe.

Last 5 in:
Alabama, Houston, Providence, Saint John's, Northern Iowa
The Panthers need help from a middling MVC.  Bradley has rebounded to give the league a sixth decent team, but Valpo, the Redbirds, Bears, and Braves are all going to be eyed as NIT at best, even with a strong conference run.  Loyola and Northern Iowa need to stay on top of that middle class and hope it keeps their numbers strong.  These aren't Creighton and WSU from the old Valley though.  The Big East has 3 team log jam, and that could break at any point.  WSU's move to the AAC should buoy Temple and Houston's numbers for the rest of the season; double digit conference wins will be huge.  The SEC is so strong that Alabama went from potential Top 3 to "just hope to stay in the top half."

First 5 out:
Syracuse, Butler, Maryland Boise State, UCLA
UCLA is a solid cut below the other 4.  Depending how I prioritize the numbers, Cuse, Butler, MD, and Boise replace any of the 5 teams ahead of them (and Minnesota).  UCLA is really just there, not bad, but in need of big wins in the state of Arizona to really have a shot.  Boise needs good seasons out of Fresno, SDST, UNLV, and New Mexico to boost the conference numbers.

Next 5 out:
Penn State, Iowa State, Marquette, Utah, Oregon
If you were looking for the Pac12, you have found the mortuary.  Marquette can jump into the BE mix again if they get hot. Penn State is exactly what you expect from the middle of the pack in the Big 10.  Decent numbers, a few notable win, and no idea whether or not they are any good.  When I was originally programming the spreadsheet, the first run pumped out 9 teams (OKST was DOA).  Kansas lost and KSU lost and OKST lost.  Iowa State has a ways to go, but the ground work is there.  Better shape than UCLA long term; no bad losses in the Big12.

In the Hunt:
BYU, KSU, Miss St, Georgia, Fresno, SDST, NCST, Towson!, UNLV, Northwestern, UCF, ODU, Wisconsin, Wake Forest, and I swear-to-freaking-god Boston College.

Anomoly:
I have Hawaii as my Big West pick... but UC Davis looking really good.

12 DEC Bracket

Work is interfering with posting the analysis, but should have that up before I get out of here for hockey.  Villanova is the number 1 overall, Houston and Northern Iowa are last teams in, Maryland and Butler first teams out.

Confirmed... and some things I did not see coming

A new segment that will likely exist primarily on Twitter. Basically a quick take of a couple of the results of the night that help explain some of the thought behind selections and seedings for this year's bracket.

6 DEC
Confirmed suspicions... that they are going to make a run in The Valley
Loyola 65, Florida 59: Loyola is a very slow, frustrating team to play.  Not necessarily like Virginia, who grinds the game to a halt, but a team that doesn't give away a lot on the offensive end as far as poor shot selection. 3 point shots are taken in rhythm to maximize conversion rate and prevent breaks the other way.  Extra passes in and out of the paint make 8-footers 6-footers, and 6-footers vulnerable for an easy backdoor cut.  I was not expecting that Florida would enter the SEC slate undefeated, but a couple losses to Duke, FSU, even Cinci or Clemson next week would risk their 1 line status... Loyola though?  Maybe Loyola is an at large caliber team.  Which is good because Valpo is a wildcard right now, hot, but untested.

Blindsided... Just because Lorenzo Romar couldn't have been THAT bad
Washington 74, Kansas 65: KU had beaten UK, blown out tourney front runners S Dakota St, Oakland, and Texas Southern, and humbled Syracuse.  I get the game was in KC as opposed to Allen, but the Huskies ran with this one late.  Typically, the better team gets behind early and just can't get enough rhythm or opportunity to comeback.  But not this time.  UW won every stage of the game and Kansas, playing more like a feisty underdog, kept up early, but just couldn't make the plays a top team would make to close out inferior competition.  And this is not indicative of the Huskies level of play.  They have struggled to beat their "peers" in the mid-level rankings (100-200) and were quite convincingly dispatched at MSG last month by Top 50 squads.

Preseason Bracket

So the preseason bracket is a month late.  Most of the conference picks were made between the first of November and Thanksgiving, but the bracket layout and seeding has been delayed for a few reasons.

1. My computer, iPad, thumb drives, etc, were all stolen in San Francisco this summer.  Lesson: In SF, if it isn’t tattooed or pierced to your body, it will likely be stolen.  Be warned.  Because it was a new folder, I had not set the permissions to back-up any of the data to the Cloud or my Airport.  Well, that’s on me.
2. It’s OK, because I was constantly playing catchup, everything was hand-jammed to spreadsheets.  This year, I have tried to make my data acquisition a little more efficient, which has required some up front coding…
3. I suck at coding.
4. I do most of this during work down time (last year I was on the final extension of a contract, which equates to blowing off real work) which there has been little of…
5. Too many kids.
6. This whole NCAA-FBI thing.  This type of selection bias goes well beyond KenPom, RPI, endowment dollars, etc.  Clearly there is so much wrong going on in college basketball right now to circumvent the rules, how do you punish those who have been caught in this one scheme, versus what is known to be occurring at numerous other programs? Especially when the NCAA administrative body has proven that they have know idea what a student athlete is.
7. I am lazy.

I’m not here to hold ethical or moral judgment. It amazes me Pitino got pinched before Calipari. It bothers me a coaching lifer like Larranaga is thrown into the industrial wasteland that has become NCAA recruiting.

In other words, I moved several schools into a category reserved for schools at risk, whether it be administrative turmoil, APR, or investigations.  Of these schools, only two are in my field: UCLA and Miami.  The damage done at USC, OK State, Louisville, Arizona, and Auburn will likely result in internal punishments to cover this season.  In the case of Louisville, the NCAA may even rule on that sooner than later due to the amount of specifics already out in the public.  Alabama is on the cusp of flushing their best squad in years down the drain, so here’s hoping they come clean in the next few weeks.  They are good enough to be playing the second weekend

This has moved my PAC12 outbid from Arizona to Oregon.  Also, at print time, I have had enough of Harvard and will roll with Steve Donahue’s dark horse Quaker Oats team.

The bracket:

Duke has had enough near deaths to make me believe that ACC regular season will humble them.  They have done enough to hold their 1 seed, but they may not even win the regular season title (hint- they don’t have to).  Same with Michigan State.  The Big12 is loaded and TCU gets the first #2 seed.

I really like Villanova, but I am going to stick with my gut that a senior-laden Seton Hall and frustrated by circumstance Xavier team will test them off the top 2 lines.  Wichita State is out making me look like a buffoon right now, but I still like Cincinnati to beat them to the top AAC spot.  PAC12 is really gutted without Arizona and USC.  Oregon and UCLA just aren’t mature enough to do much better than the 5 line.  

Mid Major alerts:

I like Nevada.  They have improved a lot the last few months, and the MWC is receiving nicely, thanks to hot starts from San Diego St., Boise St., and UNLV.  I have Wyoming holding a play-in spot, but that could very likely be one of those aforementioned schools.  Gonzaga reloaded quickly, but the WCC only goes as far as the Gaels can take them, and they are not strong enough to get into the preferred pod position.  The Bonnies took a week 1 hit to the resume, but still will be a factor Selection Sunday.

The One Bid leagues will likely be buried, much like UT Arlington and Middle Tennessee were last season.  However, the numbers continue to insist that these are fringe Top 25 schools, not Top 100 fodder.  The CAA was in this position last season, but without UNCW driving the train, CoC gets screwed.  Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, and South Dakota State are the schools nobody wants to draw.  It will be very difficult to keep the winners of the HBCs out of the 16 seed play-in games, as only Texas Southern is remotely to playing at D-1 standards right now.

1 SEEDS

Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Florida

2 SEEDS

TCU, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Xavier

WILD CARDS (Teams that can blow this up)

Villanova, Arizona (Not in Field), Wichita State/Cincinnati, Gonzaga

LAST FIVE IN

Oklahoma, Northwestern, VCU, Central Florida, Wyoming

ENJOYING A SOFT BUBBLE

Maryland, SMU, Mississippi St, Texas, St. John’s, St. Bonaventure

TEMPORARILY NOT CONSIDERED (that matter)

Arizona, USC, Louisville

FIRST FIVE OUT

Alabama, KSU, Temple, San Diego St., Utah

NEXT FIVE OUT

Clemson, PSU, Washington St., UConn, NC State

Small Conferences

OK, my honest bad... the Sun Belt has no business being lumped in here, but they fall at the end of the alphabet and I forgot them.

That being said... this looks like the "New Valley"... the mid major that is growing competent basketball programs and finding new player pipelines.  Scott Cross has UT Arlington humming, Troy is sharp, GSU and GSU are winning talent over their BCS counterparts.  The bottom of the conference has fallen mightily, as it seems just yesterday Little Rock was rocking Purdue.

Liberty was killed by injury last year, but should be back to top Asheville and Winthrop.

The Big West was maddeningly mediocre last season.  Long Beach looked like they blew an easy slate, but it turns out that they are not very good.  Reggie Theus is probably missing the days of easy recruiting and homecourt advantage in Las Cruces; Northridge isn't getting much better this season. Davis will slide back to the field after last year's run.  I expect Hawaii to pull it together for a run after having to sit last year out.

The Northeast Conference is a total wild card.  St. Francis PA looks the deepest, but I could see any of the top 8 sneaking into Dayton and making some noise.

Florida Gulf Coast is so much deeper and more prepared than the rest of this conference it is not even funny.  In other seasons, I would give Lipscomb some hope, but I'd expect FGCU to nearly run the table.

The Southland is balanced.

MEAC is much stronger than the SWAC this year... the SWAC is really struggling right now, both on and off the court, but Mike Davis at least seems to have Texas Southern competing at the level of the other small conferences.  The top 4 in the MEAC look OK.

One Bid League Predictions

Once again, no slights intended as to who's who here.  I just know that despite gaudy records, these regular season champions have no shot of catching the eye of the committee for an at-large:

Not much to say about the MAC, other than there doesn't seem to be any continuity or esteem here anymore. A hot season or two in the MAC used to be a launching pad to a nice BCS gig.  Instead, Keith Dambrot gets exiled to Duquesne for his accomplishments.  Duquense would be at the bottom of the MAC, and it's not for a lack of trying from Everhart or Ferry.  That said, the MAC still gets coaches, they still get players, but they just don't build the resumes they used to and have fallen behind the likes of the MAAC, Summit, and Southern.  I would not see any of these top 4 hanging with the Ivy top 4 over the long haul.

The WAC is up for grabs.  UVU doesn't quite have the horses to maintain their pace for a full 40 and will struggle against the top 3.  Bakersfield has been on a nice run, but with GCU eligible for postseason, it makes their path more difficult.  The Aztecs looked ready to run the regular season table until the road went through the other top schools.  This should be an entertaining race, but I expect Dan Majerle to get GCU to the promised land in their first season of eligibility.

The Ohio Valley has been a lot of Belmont, but without Bradds, that should change.  Jacksonville St. finished on the upswing and will continue that way.  Too much turmoil elsewhere in the conference to feel anyone else is a sexy pick.

The Summit is simple: the Dakota schools are good (the monopoly will be more apparent with UND coming over next year), ORU and Western Illinois are not.  Fort Wayne had their window close, and Denver is recovering from Joe Scott. 

This is the worst Big Sky I can remember.  NAU, ISU, SUU are among the worst teams in the country again.  There was a time when the Sky would park one team down there only to have them bounce back.  I like the skill players at Idaho (Sanders) and Montana St (Hall) to drive those teams to the top of the standings.

Duggar Baucom has his system and players in place, but I think the opposition is on to his pace and The Citadel can only go as far as their defense takes them.  UNC Greensboro has a fun team, but I don't think they have the overall consistency to take the regular season crown from Furman.

Vermont probably won't be on the fringes of the at-large discussion, but they should roll through the AE again.  Albany provides a nice foil, but UNH is several steps below after that.

Bucknell has a NCAA weekend-caliber team.  I don't see anyone in the Patriot gaining ground, though the work that Ed DeChellis has done, and Navy should improve their league win total for the 6th straight year.

Preseason bracket

I'm a little delinquent, but should have an opportunity to comb through and seed it Friday, when all is quiet because the Internet exists to do my holiday shopping.

2017-2018 Mid-Major Conference Previews

There is not a slight between these 8 conferences and the 8 referenced under “One-Bid” (coming soon) other than I feel that the 2-3 best teams in these conferences are more likely to be a factor on the bubble come February.

The Mountain West is still several seasons away from being a legitimate multi-bid threat again.  It’s a shame, because the old WAC was home to some of the nation’s most exciting basketball.  When the MWC broke away, they took the heart of the conference.  It has fought small battles of attrition to football, but it looks to be taking its toll.  New Mexico and UNLV have been staggering aimlessly for several seasons.  Wyoming, Fresno St and Utah St are consistently unable to break through. Nevada was a very fringy Bubble team last year (likely “Next Four Out” had they not claimed an auto bid). San Diego State could go either way.  I’ve never been a fan of the coaching coattails, but the word out is that Dutcher has been doing the grunt work here for much more of their run than I would have believed.  Eustachy has the Rams pointed in the right direction, but they are not deep at all.  The conference just doesn’t draw from the Big 12/PAC 12 reservoir the way it used to.

The Missouri Valley has reloaded about as well as it could from the Creighton and Wichita defections.  The conference had survived the losses of Tulsa, Cincinnati, Louisville before that.  The difference is that those are larger cities that have their own sports world.  Valpo falls into mould of the other schools (ISU, ISU, SIU, NIU, MSU), with great tradition, but not much happening in a small town to sell recruits on MVC over Big East, AAC, or even Big Ten.  The MVC needs a winner in Loyola to pipeline talent back into the conference.  The play deliberately, and with the Redbirds and Panthers struggling, there isn’t much resistance.  Bradley will be a shocker, as they have been left for dead for several seasons.  Not seeing much more than an auto bid here, unless somebody pulls together 30 wins.

Not much to say about the West Coast Conference.  Gonzaga reloaded, but St. Mary’s has the NBA talent this year, and should be able to take 2 of 3.  BYU will be exciting until Emery has a meltdown on the road and costs them a couple winnable games.  Too much turnover in the conference the last 2 years to generate many other threats.  Santa Clara is building a solid system and base, but they need way more talent to crack the top 3.

The CAA was a potential multi-bid league with UNCW and Charleston playing tight most of the way, but Charleston fizzled, now the Seahawks have graduated most of their diamonds in the rough.  Elon and Towson are competent enough to make a run. The Tribe lost some of their underrated talent that made Williamsburg a very difficult place to win the last few years.

The loss of Valpo from the Horizon makes this a very unappealing slate of teams.  The Norse are on the map in the wake of Alec Peters late season injury, but it is unlikely Oakland craps the bed again like they did last season.  The Phoenix never figured out how to score at that tempo, and that doesn’t figure to change this season.

The Ivy is a tale of 4 Haves and 4 Have Nots.  Any one of the top 4 can steal the auto bid, but I’m not sure anybody is going to catch the scheduling breaks to be at-large worthy.  Dartmouth, Brown, and Cornell are several steps down from the top four, and there is a pretty large break between the Tigers and Lions.  Princeton has lost the most from last year, though it still can run away with this.  My money would be on the FBS-level talent at Harvard, or the depth at Yale, but never rule out the ability of Penn to spread and shoot.

Monmouth’s stranglehold on the Little MAAC (though what’s it say about the MAC that they rate below here) is over with nary an NCAA bid.  Manhattan has assembled a formidable team.  Iona has been solid for years and are not going away, though Fairfield could be the sleeper here.  Also, never count Siena out in the MAAC tourney.

Conference USA is where things typically go to die, and there isn’t much coming out this year.  ODU will bore you to death, and both Charlotte and Marshall will ignore defensive obligations, making MTSU the favorite again.  UTEP and LaTech will win 20 games and be thorns in their side.  The most interesting pieces are North Texas and UTSA, both of whom can make an unexpected run up a weak conference… the Hilltoppers dream about what might have been, though the concern to me is how Stansbury lined that deal up.

2017-2018 Major Conference predictions

I have been a little delinquent starting the previews and preseason bracket.  The FBI sting took some of the wind out of my sails.  I could write for days on that particular topic, but that has nothing to do with the bracket.  I do feel that it would be ignorant not to take the investigation into consideration, as well as other legal implications, so I highlighted teams that I felt were in limbo for this season... not that the NCAA sanctions or postseason bans are imminent or likely (though that is a possibility) but this will affect the longterm mental health of the program.  Maybe not so much the players on the court, but everything that goes into the sausage (recruiting, coaches, practice, travel, media, etc) are going to change for those teams in the immediate future.

Notes:
The PAC12 is a disaster. Arizona, USC, and UCLA looked to be frontrunners, but who knows where the investigation leads, and how China expedites their legal process, which I can only imagine to be like Brokedown Palace.  Cal is bankrupt, Oregon is embroiled in its moral and ethical quandries, and every school north of the 44 degree parallel sucks.  Arizona has the depth to prevail, but my guess is that the investigation breaks Miller before the postseason.  If so, the PAC12 is wide open.

ACC is messy, but the teams currently involved were outside the "lock" status.  Miami and Louisville had tourney potential, but will likely be just impacted enough to tumble to the middle of the ACC standings, with self sanctioning a bargaining chip. Not quite as high on Duke's likely outcome versus the "upside" outcome.  Notre Dame is flying under the radar despite being sound, deep, and experienced.  They have a better shot at an ACC title, while Duke could go all the way if they peak at the right time.

The state of Alabama shot itself in the foot big time.  Auburn looked close to a contender last year, while Alabama pulled a few upsets to remain in the selection discussion until the SEC tourney.  Both are already in the midst of damage control, and I can't see Pearl lasting through Christmas.  Florida and Kentucky are the class of a flat conference again.  Media is high on Missouri because of the Porter effect, but both Fultz and Simmons played for the draft, not necessarily for the postseason.  I can see the Tigers getting off to a fast start and fizzling once NBA scout confirm his draft status. 

The Shockers are jumping to the AAC, which will put a strain on their typical road dominance.  Cinci didn't lose enough to warrant overlooking (SMU did) so I think that chip on their shoulder will be enough to win the league while everyone prematurely puts WSU in the Final Four.  UConn could be the wild card again.

Venue issues will change the fortunes of both Villanova and DePaul.  While the Wildcats are basically playing neutral or road all season, DePaul finally has new digs of their own near campus.  The edge goes to Xavier and Seton Hall to play up that advantage, while DePaul could finally be trending out of the cellar.

Oklahoma State should plummet back to early, while the Dixon effect has taken root at TCU.  Kansas hopefully exhibits a less ambiguous standard toward moral turpitude on the roster.  Over the years, Self has never worn the same stink of other embattled coaches.  I doubt there is any dirt there, but come on, show some discipline.

I have nothing to say about the Big Ten, other than they were very overrated in the seedings last year, and the overall talent seems to have slipped, though little Pitino has a sleeping giant.

Mike Rhodes could keep VCU's stream open, but the Rams have been good for 13 years now.  Typically the bubble bursts on mid-majors and someone has to rebuild from scratch, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.  Ironically, the man who broke their drought, Anthony Grant, will be presiding over continuity at Dayton.  The Bonnies and Rams have the best 5's in the conference, and without much competition, they won't need the depth to win.